The Buffalo Bills have a 71% chance of making the playoffs as a 6-2 team in the AFC this year according to the New York Times Playoff Simulator. That’s a pretty solid number for the halfway point of the season and shows just how much of a meltdown it would be if Buffalo somehow misses the postseason.
Based on their predictions, a 10-6 Buffalo Bills team has a 98% chance to make the playoffs this year. If Buffalo goes 4-4 down the stretch, they are a virtual lock. However, a 9-7 Bills team is only in with 46% of scenarios. This is mainly because the Bills still have seven AFC games remaining in the back half of the year.
A Bills win over the Cleveland Browns pushes them up to an 82% chance of making the playoffs but with a loss, they slide to 56%.
Over at FiveThirtyEight, the Bills are at a 68% chance of making the playoffs. It’s the fifth-highest in the AFC (because the four teams ahead of them all have much better chances of winning their division). They break it out further, giving the Bills just a 6% chance of winning their division. In their simulations, the Bills average out a 10-6 record, which would be good enough for the 5 seed in their simulations.