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AFC Playoff Odds: Buffalo Bills dominating the conference

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The Bills certainly helped themselves this weekend.

The Buffalo Bills have a stranglehold on an AFC playoff spot, according to multiple simulations. It’s so strong, that folks aren’t talking about IF Buffalo is going to the playoffs, but rather WHEN they are going to clinch a playoff spot.

Over at The New York Times Playoff Simulator, Buffalo is sitting at a lofty 94% of simulations where they make the postseason. So 19-of-20 teams in the Bills’ spot will make the postseason. If the Bills win any of their remaining games, it goes up to 99% or better.

At Five Thirty Eight, the Bills are at 95% right now. That’s the fourth-highest number in the AFC behind the division-leading New England Patriots, Baltimore Ravens, and Kansas City Chiefs. They all have commanding leads in their divisions, pushing their percentages up. A win in either of the next two weeks would move Buffalo up to 99% or better.

Five Thirty Eight also gives the Bills a 7% chance of winning the AFC East now that the Patriots lost to the Houston Texans. A Buffalo win and a New England loss in Week 14 would only move Buffalo up to 25%, so winning the division is still very unlikely.