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What would it cost for Denver Broncos to trade up with Buffalo Bills?

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If Denver wanted to move up just one slot so grab their future quarterback, what would Buffalo get out of the deal?

The Denver Broncos shipped a mid-round pick in order to pay former Baltimore Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco a lot of money to stabilize their quarterback position this offseason. That doesn’t mean Denver is done tinkering, though. They don’t have an elite answer in place. As the Ravens did in last April’s NFL Draft, Denver could look to upgrade over Flacco in the long term by adding a rookie this spring.

Because of other teams in the top ten and beyond looking for quarterbacks, Buffalo is in an advantageous trade position one spot ahead of Denver. They could even be in a position to move back one pick to Denver’s spot at ten and take the same player they would have selected at nine while gaining more capital. Take the best offer they can get elsewhere, turn around to Denver and say “match it for your guy.”

What would a Buffalo/Denver trade look like?

If you’re looking at the old Jimmy Johnson trade-value chart, the difference between the ninth and tenth overall picks is just 50 points, equivalent to a mid fourth-round pick. Denver already traded their fourth-round pick in order to obtain Flacco, though, so Buffalo would be better off taking the Broncos’ 2020 3rd rounder than a collection of late rounders in 2019.

Buffalo gets pick 10 + 2020 3rd-round pick
Denver gets pick 9 + 182 (6th round)

If you’re looking at the more recent draft-pick chart from SB Nation’s Rich Hill, Buffalo would get a bit less. The difference in picks is only worth 18 points, the equivalent of a late fourth rounder or a fifth plus a sixth. With Denver’s fourth rounder gone and in the top half, the trade would look less than ideal:

Buffalo gets pick 10 + 148 (5th) + 182 (6th)
Denver gets pick 9

But that’s not how it’s going to play out. If Denver is trading up, it’s in some kind of desperation and it’s matching a deal Buffalo has already received from another team. Denver isn’t trading in a vacuum. For instance, if they were to beat the trade offer Buffalo might receive from Washington, it would look like this instead:

Buffalo gets pick 10 + 71 (3rd) + 148 (5th)
Denver gets pick 9

Maybe Denver wouldn’t want to give up their third-, fourth-, and fifth-round picks in the same draft to quarterbacks and would instead throw Buffalo their 2020 second rounder instead of the third and fifth this year. Buffalo should jump on that scenario and use it against Denver if at all possible. They could come out with the same player at ten they would have picked at nine and add a 2020 second-round selection.

Buffalo gets pick 10 + Denver’s 2020 2nd-round pick
Denver gets pick 9

The thing about this deal is it makes sense for Denver. It probably wouldn’t get them up to eight to trade with Detroit. They aren’t desperate enough to throw whatever they have to in order to get up into the top five because they have Flacco. It’s a deal that makes sense for both sides in the given scenario.

Poll

Would you trade pick 9 for pick 10 + Denver’s 2020 2nd rounder?

This poll is closed

  • 81%
    Yes
    (1749 votes)
  • 18%
    No
    (399 votes)
2148 votes total Vote Now