Would you let the Miami Dolphins trade up to pick number 9?

The Miami Dolphins hired a new coach this offseason and traded starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill. While they’ve signed old friend Ryan Fitzpatrick to presumably start at quarterback, Miami could be looking to address the position in a big way heading into the 2019 NFL Draft.

If their favorite prospect falls out of the top eight picks, could Miami actually pick up the phone and call the division-rival Buffalo Bills to make a trade? Would Buffalo do that?

What would a Buffalo/Miami trade look like?

Jimmy Johnson Trade Value

According to the old Jimmy Johnson draft-value chart, Buffalo’s pick is worth 1350 points. The Dolphins’ pick, just four spots later, is worth 1150. The 200-point difference is equal to Miami’s third round pick, 78 overall. It’s as clean as you can make it.

Buffalo gets 13 and 78 = 1350 points
Dolphins get 9 overall = 1350 points

Modern Trade Value

If you’re looking at newer draft charts, Buffalo wouldn’t get quite the same haul. SB Nation’s Rich Hill used a lot of data analysis to come up with this draft trade chart last year. In this scenario, Buffalo’s pick is worth 387.01 points while Miami’s pick is 335.74. The resulting deficit of 51.27 points is worth a mid- to late-third. Miami would still use their third, but Buffalo would have to even it out.

Buffalo gets 13 and 78 = 394.28 points
Dolphins get 9 and 181 overall = 393 points

Opportunity Cost

This is the paragraph that you’ve all been waiting for. What is the opportunity cost of allowing a division rival to snag a guy they think will be their quarterback of the future? It probably starts with the 2020 first round pick in addition to the 2019 first round pick. Knowing that the Dolphins are completely rebuilding, it will likely be a high pick, so two firsts would do it or me.

If you’ve read all of our trade-down scenarios, you’ll know we haven’t listed future first rounders in any deal to this point. While many readers and internet commenters think most if not all trade-downs should include a future first, that isn’t realistic most of the time. It’s realistic here.

Buffalo gets 13 and 2020 first-round pick
Dolphins get 9 overall