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Could the Oakland Raiders trade up with the Buffalo Bills?

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Oakland has three first-round picks, but might they want two top-10 picks?

The Oakland Raiders have been a little bit all over the place since Jon Gruden took over as their coach and de facto power broker. With the addition of general manager Mike Mayock, the trend has continued.

Oakland traded defensive superstar Khalil Mack and wide receiver Amari Cooper plus they acquired Antonio Brown, swinging trades with draft choices left and right. Now Oakland stands with three first-round draft picks (and four in the top 35), but what if they want two top-10 picks instead?

What would a Buffalo/Oakland trade look like?

Jimmy Johnson Trade Value

According to the old Jimmy Johnson draft-value chart, Buffalo’s pick is worth 1350 points. The Raiders’ picks at the bottom of the first round are worth 740 and 680, for a total of 1420. The 70-point difference is equal to Buffalo’s fourth round pick. It’s as clean as you can make it.

Buffalo gets 24 and 27 = 1420 points
Oakland gets 9 overall and 4th round pick = 1420 points

Modern Trade Value

If you’re looking at newer draft charts, it’s slightly different. SB Nation’s Rich Hill used a lot of data analysis to come up with this draft trade chart last year. In this scenario, Buffalo’s pick is worth 387.01 points while Oakland’s lower first round picks are 237.25 and 215.81, a total of 453. Instead, Buffalo would get the final first from Oakland at 27 overall plus the 35th overall pick for a total of 386.18. Buffalo would have three picks in the top 40. To make the trade more appealing, the teams could swap late round selections, with Buffalo moving up a few spots in the 4th or 5th rounds.

Buffalo gets 27 and 35 = 386.18 points
Raiders get 9 overall = 387 points

Opportunity Cost

It’s probably fair to say that the trade would benefit both teams if Buffalo’s top prospects are off the board after a run on defensive players in the top eight picks. If they have five targets and all of them are gone, Buffalo could move down and address three needs at offensive tackle, tight end, defensive tackle, and defensive end. Or they could package second day picks to get back up in the first round as they did for Tremaine Edmunds last year. No other team can offer the immediate collateral that Oakland possesses, so you might be more willing to work with the Raiders to get a better return.

If you split the difference on the two trades above, Buffalo would get 24 overall and 35 overall. Most fans would be content with that haul if their draft crush is gone at nine.