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2019 NFL Draft: What would a Buffalo Bills trade up with the New York Jets cost?

If the Bills want a stud DT, they may need to trade up.

Matt Warren is Associate Director of NFL coverage for SB Nation and previously covered the Bills for Buffalo Rumblings for more than a decade.

The New York Jets are “determined” to trade down in the 2019 NFL Draft, according to Ralph Vacchiano of SNY. The Jets used their second-round pick in 2019 as part of the package to move up and select Sam Darnold in 2018. With only one pick in the top 67 selections, it makes a ton of sense for the Jets to move down and snag a couple picks in the process. They need to rebuild with head coach Adam Gase and have to address the turnover.

But for the Buffalo Bills to move up that high to take a generational defensive player like Nick Bosa, Josh Allen, Ed Oliver, or Quinnen Williams, it would take a big swing of picks with a division rival.

What would a Buffalo/Jets trade look like?

Jimmy Johnson Trade Value

According to the old Jimmy Johnson draft-value chart, New Jersey’s pick is worth 2200 points. Buffalo’s pick is worth 1350 points, so the equivalent of a mid-first-round pick is needed to move up. Buffalo has a high second-round pick, so it would be a combination of a bunch of picks:

Bills get 3 overall = 2200 points
Jets get 9 (1st), 40 (2nd), 74 (third), 112 (fourth), 131 (fourth), and 181 (6th) = 2199.6 points

Modern Trade Value

If you’re looking at newer draft charts, Buffalo wouldn’t have to give up quite as many picks. SB Nation’s Rich Hill used a lot of data analysis to come up with this draft trade chart last year. In this scenario, the Jets’ pick is worth 514.33 points. Since New York wants the second rounder, it must be part of the deal, but that means Buffalo gets a little return, moving up from 131 to 93 overall (low fourth to low third).

Buffalo gets 3 and 93 overall = 556.4 points
Jets get 9, 40, 131, and 228 overall = 556.63 points

Opportunity Cost

Of course, Buffalo isn’t bidding in a vacuum. The Jets drastically overpaid to get to three last year and they’re going to be looking for the same thing in a return in 2019 (and 2020).

New York sent the 6th, 37th and 49th overall selections in 2018 and their second-rounder in 2019 to the Indianapolis Colts. Buffalo doesn’t have anything as valuable as the sixth overall pick, anyway so that’s like taking the massive haul on the old draft chart and ADDING a future pick. It makes sense to do that for a quarterback, but for a defensive tackle or defensive end who is going to play 66% of the snaps for Sean McDermott’s defense?

Plus you’re trading inside the division, which might drive the price up even further.

Buffalo gets 3 overall
New York gets 9, 40, 74, and a 2020 first