The Jacksonville Jaguars are inserting Nick Foles at quarterback and looking to hit reset on their offense after a disappointing 2018. The 2019 NFL Draft could present them with an opportunity to move down if a quarterback or defensive line-needy team wants to take a slipping player.
For the Buffalo Bills, if the Jaguars represent a chance to move up and take a generational defensive player like Ed Oliver or Quinnen Williams, it wouldn’t take all that much and Jacksonville could still add one of the top targets on their board by moving down a couple spots. Only the Detroit Lions separate the Bills and Jags, but Detroit is also in the market for a defensive lineman and other teams below Buffalo could theoretically be in the mix, too.
What would a Bills/Jaguars trade look like?
Jimmy Johnson Trade Value
According to the old Jimmy Johnson draft-value chart, Jacksonville’s pick is worth 1500 points. Buffalo’s pick is worth 1350 points, so the equivalent of a low third-round pick is needed to move up. Buffalo doesn’t have one of those, so they give up their high third rounder and get something back later.
Bills get 7 and 98 overall = 1608 points
Jaguars get 9, 74, and 131 = 1611 points
Modern Trade Value
If you’re looking at newer draft charts, it gets more palatable and more complicated. SB Nation’s Rich Hill used a lot of data analysis to come up with this draft trade chart last year. In this scenario, the Jags’ pick is worth 425.50 points. A swap of late-round picks is also thrown in to balance it out.
Buffalo gets 7, 98, and 109 overall = 492.69 points
Jaguars get 9, 74, 112, and 131 overall = 496.62 points
Opportunity Cost
Of course, Buffalo isn’t bidding in a vacuum. The Jaguars will have other suitors.
Buffalo sending a third-round pick for Jacksonville to move down two spots and still get one of the top players on their board is appealing, but I’m not sure if it moves the needle enough to make them bite. If the Miami Dolphins, sitting at 13, offer first- and second-round picks at the same time or Washington at 15, it’s going to be an interesting discussion on the value of slots 8-15 on Jacksonville’s draft board.
If they are looking for an offensive tackle, that Miami/Washington trade is probably the way Jacksonville will go. They can nab a top tackle prospect and an extra second rounder or more. But that’s all out of Buffalo’s control. They could assume the team they are trading against is going quarterback and roll the dice with the Lions. If they want to secure number 7, they will probably have to pony up. They might be able to swing one of Jacksonville’s third rounders in a return.
Buffalo gets 7 and 98 overall
Jags get 9 and 40 overall