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2019 NFL Draft: Could New York Giants trade up with Buffalo Bills for their next quarterback?

Matt Warren is Associate Director of NFL coverage for SB Nation and previously covered the Bills for Buffalo Rumblings for more than a decade.

Eli Manning is 38-years-old and the New York Giants just traded the team’s best wide receiver. The Giants are resetting, and with an extra first-round pick in 2019, the NFC team from New Jersey could be looking to shore up their quarterback position for years to come. If they want two top-10 picks, they have the ammo to trade up.

Giants general manager David Gettleman and Bills general manager Brandon Beane have a long relationship dating back to their time together with the Carolina Panthers. The Denver Broncos sit poised at pick 10 to take a quarterback. The table is set.

Ed Valentine, Managing Editor of our New York Giants blog, Big Blue View, sent me this email last week.

“A hypothetical. If the Giants offered Buffalo Nos. 17 & 37 to get up to 9 in front of Denver do you think Brandon Beane might play ball with that? I honestly don’t know but I think they really want to go defense at 6. I think they might. Waiting past Denver, Cincy, Miami, Washington for a QB at 17 seems tough.”

Most Bills fans would probably jump at that chance, but would Brandon Beane?

What would a Buffalo/Giants trade look like?

Jimmy Johnson Trade Value

According to the old Jimmy Johnson draft value chart, Buffalo’s pick is worth 1350 points. With New York’s second first-round pick, number 17, acquired from the Cleveland Browns, being worth 950 points, they would need to come up with the equivalent of a mid-second-round pick for the trade to balance. Add the high second-round pick from New York (37), which is worth 530 points, and it’s too much. Buffalo would need to balance it out.

The Bills could give back both of their fourth-round picks, to total 108 points, but that still doesn’t get all the way there. Adding the sixth rounder and their final pick make it exact, per the Johnson chart:

Buffalo gets 17 and 37 overall (first and second round picks) = 1480 points
Giants get 9, 113, 132, 182, and 230 (first, fourth, fourth, sixth, seventh) = 1480 points

Modern Trade Value

If you’re looking at newer draft charts, Buffalo needs to give back even more. SB Nation’s Rich Hill used a lot of data analysis to come up with this draft trade chart last year. In this scenario, Buffalo’s pick is worth 387 points while New York’s pick is 296. When you add the Giants’ second rounder, it swings the pendulum way in the opposite direction. Now Buffalo owes a high third rounder to the Giants. The trade above isn’t going to do it.

Buffalo gets 17 and 37 overall (first and second round picks) = 457.59 points
Giants get 9, 75, 182, and 227 (first, third, sixth, seventh) = 457.49 points

Opportunity Cost

Earlier this offseason, we projected a trade with Washington, where they moved up from 15 to 9 in exchange for 15 overall, a third, and a fifth. If we use that as a starting point and tell the Giants to beat that, the offer of New York’s first- and second-round picks makes a ton of sense. New York only has a low third, having already used their third-round pick in the 2018 supplemental draft, so they wouldn’t be able to beat Washington’s offer that way.

New York gets to hold off a division rival. Buffalo gets to move down further in the first round. It’s a premium for the opportunity cost to the Giants. Buffalo could probably throw in a lower pick, too, to help make the trade more palatable as they have two picks in the fourth and two picks in the fifth.

Buffalo gets 17 and 37 overall
Giants get 9 and 148 overall