The 2019 SB Nation NFL Mock Draft began last week, and today brings us the second group of three picks. The Buffalo Bills sit back at nine, but recent reports indicate they might be interested in trading up to nab their top prospect. The way the SB Nation mock is shaking out, that might very well be the case.
Here are the picks so far:
1. Arizona Cardinals - Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma
2. San Francisco 49ers - Nick Bosa, EDGE, Ohio State
3. New York Jets - Josh Allen, EDGE, Kentucky
4. Oakland Raiders - Quinnen Williams, DI, Alabama
With three defensive linemen off the board in the first four picks, if Buffalo wants to secure a top-flight lineman, they might need to trade up with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers sitting at five. Tampa Bay might be open to this idea with a new coach, says Bucs Nation managing editor Gil Arcia:
“This is a crucial spot for the Buccaneers and trading down would be a better option,” wrote Arcia in his write-up.
We weren’t allowed to make trades in the SB Nation mock, but let’s look at what it might cost for the Bills to trade up and nab Ed Oliver or even Brian Burns before he’s gone.
What would a Buffalo/Bucs trade look like?
Jimmy Johnson Trade Value
According to the old Jimmy Johnson draft value chart, Tampa Bay’s pick is worth 1700 points. Buffalo’s pick is worth 1350 points, so the equivalent of a low second round pick is needed to move up. Buffalo has a high second round pick, so it would be a combination of a bunch of picks:
Bills get 5 overall = 1700 points
Buccaneers get 9 (1st), 75 (third), 113 (fourth), 132 (fourth), and 159 (5th) = 1701.8 points
That’s probably not an attractive enough offer, so let’s re-shape where Tampa moves up thirty spots into the top of the second round but Buffalo gets something back.
Bills get 5 (1st) and 70 (third) overall = 1940
Buccaneers get 9 (1st), 40 (2nd), 113 (fourth), and 148 (fifth) = 1950
Buffalo could also choose to package a 2020 pick, but it would likely be this year’s ninth overall, next year’s second, and this year’s third to move up.
Modern Trade Value
If you’re looking at newer draft charts, Buffalo wouldn’t have to give up quite as many picks. SB Nation’s Rich Hill used a lot of data analysis to come up with this draft trade chart last year. In this scenario, Tampa’s pick is worth 467.81 points. Buffalo would need to give the first rounder, third rounder, and fifth rounder to get there.
Buffalo gets 5 overall = 467.81 points
Tampa gets 9, 75 (third), and 132 (fifth) = 467.22
Of course, Buffalo isn’t bidding in a vacuum. With teams desperate for quarterbacks and the New York Giants and Jacksonville Jaguars sitting at 6 and 7, the Bucs pick will almost certainly yield a higher return as teams look to move up to pick ahead of those two QB-needy teams. The Bills must be convinced that the player they pick is a future Hall of Famer, because it’s likely to cost them at least their 2020 first rounder.
Buffalo gets 5 overall
Tampa gets 9, 75 overall, and 2020 first rounder
For the record, I’m not on board with this trade up. I’m certainly entertaining the idea of Oliver or Burns at 9, but not at the cost of an additional first round pick.