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Contract projections for all the Buffalo Bills’ 2020 free agents

We’ve crunched the numbers

The Buffalo Bills have 19 players set to hit some form of free agency this offseason. We’ve crunched the numbers on potential contracts for all of them. Here they are listed in terms of descending average annual value otherwise known as AAV.

DE Shaq Lawson
Three years, $26 million ($8 million fully guaranteed)
$8.67 AAV

Lawson is in for a big pay day after playing solid against the run in 2019 and adding 6.5 sacks. Buffalo should want him back as a priority free agent.

Read the entire contract projection with comparable contracts here

DT Jordan Phillips
Three years, $21 million ($8 million guaranteed)
$7 million AAV

I don’t expect the Bills to pony up this kind of money for Phillips when they spent a top-ten pick on Ed Oliver to play the same position last year. Plus, Oliver played really well down the stretch.

Read the entire contract projection with comparable contracts here

CB Kevin Johnson
Three years, $15 million ($5 million guaranteed)
$5 million AAV

It’s light on guarantees due to his injury history, but Johnson has a first-round pedigree and has shown he can play. Buffalo needs another starting-caliber cornerback.

Read the entire contract projection with comparable contracts here

OG Quinton Spain
Two years, $9 million ($5 million guaranteed)
$4.5 million AAV

Spain started all the games for the Bills in 2019 but they have a possible replacement on the roster in Cody Ford and they could look to save the money, too. The Bills didn’t value him enough to take him off the field in Week 17 last year.

Read the entire contract projection with comparable contracts here

RB Frank Gore
One year, $2 million ($500,000 guaranteed)

Gore faded down the stretch, but there is still a chance the Bills might want him back. This is the same deal they gave him last offseason.

Read the entire contract projection with comparable contracts here

OT LaAdrian Waddle
One year, $2 million ($400,000 guaranteed)

Waddle sat out the entire 2019 season with a quadriceps injury. If the Bills do move Ford inside, it would be imperative that they add another quality offensive tackle to back up Ty Nsekhe. This projection is the same one-year prove-it deal Waddle signed last year.

OLB Julian Stanford
One year, $1.5 million ($300,000 guaranteed)

Stanford is coming off a two-year, $3 million deal so this stays in line with what he’s made in the past. He’s a core special teamer, and played more than 61% of the snaps in the kicking phase during every game in 2019. The NFL minimum for players of his career length is $975,000.

S Kurt Coleman
One year, $1.045 million ($95,000 guaranteed)

Coleman gets the veteran minimum again for players with ten years of accrued seasons. He was a depth player at a solid position for Buffalo, but played nine or more special teams snaps in 14 games in 2019.

DT Corey Liuget
One year, $945,000 ($95,000 guaranteed)

A veteran minimum contract is probably in the cards for Liuget. He signed as a street free agent in 2019 and played well down the stretch. His contract in 2019 was for the minimum.

LB Maurice Alexander
One year, $820,000 ($95,000 guaranteed)

Alexander gets the veteran minimum for a player with six accrued seasons. When he was active on game days, he played a ton of special teams but only played more than five defensive snaps in a game once during the 2019 season.

RB Senorise Perry
One year, $820,000 ($95,000 guaranteed)

Another veteran minimum contract for Perry, who actually started the year on injured reserve but returned to the Bills for the home stretch. He’s another core special teamer.

WR Isaiah McKenzie
One year, $735,000 ($95,000 guaranteed)

While McKenzie was an important part of the offense in 2019, he’s replaceable. With Buffalo likely upgrading their wide-receiver corps this offseason, McKenzie is looking a minimum contract in the face. For Buffalo to place the RFA tender on him would cost approximately $2.15 million, a number I doubt the Bills are willing to commit. (Buffalo would get a fifth-round pick if McKenzie signed elsewhere.)

Read the entire contract projection with fan vote here

S Dean Marlowe
One year, $735,000 ($95,000 guaranteed)

Despite being 28, Marlowe only has three accrued season in the NFL; 2015 with the Carolina Panthers, 2016 on the Panthers’ injured reserve, and 2019 on Buffalo’s roster. This makes him a restricted free agent but there is no way he’s getting an RFA tender of $2 million when a former undrafted free agent gets nothing in return if he signs elsewhere.

TE Jason Croom, CB Levi Wallace, WR Robert Foster
One year, $660,000

All three of these players are exclusive-rights free agents. They will get one-year deals with no signing bonus. They can’t sign with anyone else if Buffalo offers them a league minimum contract.

LB Lorenzo Alexander

Alexander has announced his retirement and we didn’t project a contract despite him being a free agent.