The Buffalo Bills can wrap up a bunch of AFC East tiebreakers win a with this weekend of the New England Patriots. Not even halfway through the year, they are playing their fourth AFC East game and have gone 3-0 to this point.
Right now, Buffalo has an 86.7% chance of making the playoffs for the third time in four seasons (according to Football Outsiders) and an 82.8% chance of winning the AFC East—something they haven’t done since Jim Kelly was under center. It’s most likely the Bills will be the 4 seed (56.4%) but they could sneak up to the 3 seed (19.2%) or even the 2 seed (5.6%). The 1 seed, bypassing both the Kansas City Chiefs and Tennessee Titans, has just a 1.6% chance of happening.
As far as how they’ll do in the playoffs, the numbers don’t look great. In 14.9% of the simulations they make it to the AFC Championship game. In 5.2% they reach the Super Bowl. In just 2.0% of simulations, they win the whole enchilada.
Football Outsiders’ playoff odds report plays out the season 30,000 times to form their statistical probabilities.