The Buffalo Bills are on their bye this week. It’s the perfect time to pick up our heads and look around the AFC at what’s going on in the playoff picture. With nine teams above .500 and eight of them able to tie or best Buffalo at 7-3 this week, it’s definitely a time to be rooting against the rest of the AFC.
Before we get into who to root for this week, here is where everyone sits in the AFC heading into Week 11.
Overall Standings
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-0)
2. Kansas City Chiefs (8-1)
3. Buffalo Bills (7-3)
4. Las Vegas Raiders (6-3, 4-2 AFC)
5. Miami Dolphins (6-3, 3-2 AFC)
6. Baltimore Ravens (6-3, wins over CLE & IND, 4-3 AFC)
7. Indianapolis Colts (6-3, win over TEN, loss to BAL 3-3 AFC)
8t. Tennessee Titans (6-3, loss to IND, 4-3 AFC)
8t. Cleveland Browns (6-3, loss to BAL, 4-3 AFC)
10. New England Patriots (4-5)
11. Denver Broncos (3-6)
12. Cincinnati Bengals (2-6-1)
13 Los Angeles Chargers (2-7, 2-4 AFC)
14. Houston Texans (2-7, 2-5 AFC)
15. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8)
16. New York Jets (0-9)
Playoff Standings
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-0)
2. Kansas City Chiefs (8-1)
3. Buffalo Bills (7-3)
4. Indianapolis Colts (6-3, win over TEN)
5. Las Vegas Raiders (6-3, 4-2 AFC)
6. Miami Dolphins (6-3, 3-2 AFC)
7. Baltimore Ravens (6-3, 4-3 AFC)
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8t. Tennessee Titans (6-3, loss to IND, 4-3 AFC)
8t. Cleveland Browns (6-3, loss to BAL, 4-3 AFC)
Let’s take a look at this weekend’s games in order of most important for the Bills to least important.
Denver Broncos (3-6) over Miami Dolphins (6-3)
Sunday, 4:05 PM Eastern
Miami can tie the Bills in the AFC East with a win on Sunday. That would continue an impressive streak for the Dolphins, who haven’t lost since Week 4. Even without Drew Lock, the Broncos could find a way to win this game in their home stadium.
Baltimore Ravens (6-3) over Tennessee Titans (6-3)
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
The Titans are one of only two teams with a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Bills, so knocking them further down helps Buffalo in both seeding if Tennessee pulls out the AFC South and for the Wild Card if the Bills fall down there.
Philadelphia Eagles (3-5-1) over Cleveland Browns (6-3)
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
An easy decision to let the NFC beat the AFC contender. This will help if Buffalo falls into the Wild Card situation.
Las Vegas Raiders (6-3) over Kansas City Chiefs (8-1)
Sunday, 4:25 PM EST
Let’s operate under the assumption that Buffalo wins the AFC East. They’ll need help to move up into the top two seeds. Even if Buffalo ends up in the Wild Card race with Vegas, they’ve already beaten the Raiders for a head-to-head tiebreaker. So I think it’s pretty clear to root for Vegas, even though it probably improves their overall playoff chances more if the Chiefs win.
Green Bay Packers over Indianapolis Colts (6-3)
Sunday, 4:25 PM EST
Yes we want the Colts to win the AFC South. We also want them to not beat Buffalo in the seeding. This keeps Indy behind Buffalo in overall record but they’ll still be ahead of Tennessee.
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8) over Pittsburgh Steelers (9-0)
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
If the Bills are going to get the one seed, they’re gonna need Pittsburgh to lose at least two games and then Buffalo is going to have to beat them in their head-to-head. Not exactly a great possibility this week.
Houston Texans (2-7) over New England Patriots (4-5)
Sunday, 1:00 PM EST
Bury them. End any chance of an AFC East comeback.
New York Jets (0-9) over Los Angeles Chargers (2-7)
Sunday, 4:05 PM EST
Not exactly an important game, but we don’t want the Jets to get the number-one pick and this helps Buffalo’s Strength of Schedule and should help their Strength of Victory tiebreaker, too. Other than sheer embarrassment of going 0-16, there’s no good reason to root for a Jets loss anymore. Plus, maybe they can go on a run and keep Adam Gase!
Seattle Seahawks over Arizona Cardinals
Thursday Night Football
This outcome would help Buffalo’s Strength of Victory tiebreaker, which is a ways down the list.
Los Angeles Rams over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Monday Night Football
This helps Buffalo’s Strength of Victory and Tom Brady loses in primetime.
Games that don’t directly effect the Bills
Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Football Team
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers
Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings
If all of this goes Buffalo’s way, here are what the standings look like a week from now (without me figuring out Strength of Victory tiebreakers):
Overall Standings
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-1)
2. Kansas City Chiefs (8-2)
3. Buffalo Bills (7-3, 5-2 AFC)
4. Las Vegas Raiders (7-3, loss to BUF, 5-2 AFC)
5. Baltimore Ravens (7-3, wins over CLE & IND & TEN, 5-3 AFC)
6. Cleveland Browns (6-4, loss to BAL, 4-3 AFC)
7t. Miami Dolphins (6-4, 3-3 AFC)
7t. Indianapolis Colts (6-4, win over TEN, loss to BAL, 3-3 AFC)
9. Tennessee Titans (6-4, loss to IND, 4-4 AFC)
10. Denver Broncos (4-6, win over NE)
11. New England Patriots (4-6, loss to DEN)
12. Cincinnati Bengals (3-6-1/2-7-1)
13. Houston Texans (3-7, 3-5 AFC)
14. Los Angeles Chargers (2-8, win over JAX)
15. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8, loss to LAC)
16. New York Jets (1-9)
Playoff Standings
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-1)
2. Kansas City Chiefs (8-2)
3. Buffalo Bills (7-3)
4. Indianapolis Colts (6-4, win over TEN)
5. Las Vegas Raiders (7-3, loss to BUF, 5-2 AFC)
6. Baltimore Ravens (7-3, wins over CLE & IND & TEN, 5-3 AFC)
7. Cleveland Browns (6-4, loss to BAL, 4-3 AFC)
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8. Miami Dolphins (6-4, 3-3 AFC)
9. Tennessee Titans (6-4, loss to IND, 4-4 AFC)
10. Denver Broncos (4-6, win over NE)
11. New England Patriots (4-6, loss to DEN)
No matter what happens this week, Buffalo will still be in the lead in the AFC East. They can fall out of the third seed if Tennessee wins and Indianapolis loses because the Titans hold the tiebreaker over Buffalo. The Bills hold the tiebreaker over the Colts right now if both Indy and Tennessee win.