The Buffalo Bills still have a very narrow window to the top seed in the AFC. Think microscopic.
If the Bills win out to get to 13-3 and the Kansas City Chiefs lose out to get to 13-3, the Chiefs own the head-to-head tiebreaker over Buffalo. So the Bills need another team in the mix.
If the Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, and Pittsburgh Steelers all finish at 13-3, the Bills have a chance. No one has a head-to-head sweep. AFC record would be the next tiebreaker, and all three teams would be 10-2 in our hypothetical scenario. It moves to record vs common opponents, but there needs to be four common among all three teams and there aren’t. The next tiebreaker is Strength of Victory.
Here is where it gets bizarre. They would need a combination of the vast majority of these outcomes to go their way for the Bills to pass Kansas City in Strength of Victory. The Chiefs’ victories over Tampa Bay, New Orleans, and Buffalo loom large.
- The Bills would need the NFC South to lose all their inter-divisional games except Atlanta vs. Kansas City: New Orleans vs Minnesota, Tampa Bay vs Detroit, Carolina vs Washington
- The Bills would need the Tennessee Titans to win out against the Green Bay Packers and Houston Texans
- The Baltimore Ravens lose both of their remaining games
- The Indianapolis Colts lose one of their remaining games
- The Arizona Cardinals lose both of their remaining two games
- Atlanta Falcons beat the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the final two weeks
- The Miami Dolphins beating the Las Vegas Raiders
- The Houston Texans losing to the Cincinnati Bengals
- The New York Jets beating the Cleveland Browns
- The Los Angeles Chargers beating the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs
There are probably some more ways to do this, but you kind of get the idea here.