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AFC Playoff Picture: Buffalo Bills have extremely narrow path to number-one seed

It could happen.

The Buffalo Bills still have a very narrow window to the top seed in the AFC. Think microscopic.

If the Bills win out to get to 13-3 and the Kansas City Chiefs lose out to get to 13-3, the Chiefs own the head-to-head tiebreaker over Buffalo. So the Bills need another team in the mix.

If the Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, and Pittsburgh Steelers all finish at 13-3, the Bills have a chance. No one has a head-to-head sweep. AFC record would be the next tiebreaker, and all three teams would be 10-2 in our hypothetical scenario. It moves to record vs common opponents, but there needs to be four common among all three teams and there aren’t. The next tiebreaker is Strength of Victory.

Here is where it gets bizarre. They would need a combination of the vast majority of these outcomes to go their way for the Bills to pass Kansas City in Strength of Victory. The Chiefs’ victories over Tampa Bay, New Orleans, and Buffalo loom large.

There are probably some more ways to do this, but you kind of get the idea here.