FanPost

The Dating Game: Playoffs Edition

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For those of you lucky enough to live through the 70s, you were treated to an iconic precursor to today's reality TV: the Dating Game. It was complete with sideburns, elephant ear bell bottom pants, and lots of orange. Some lucky hip guy or groovy gal got to interview 3 potential dates (without being able to see them) and ask them questions to see if they would be a good match for a date.

As the playoff picture is getting clearer, the last week of football will determine who the Bills will "date" in the playoffs. In my opinion, W-L record is meaningless when it comes to the playoffs. It is all about matchups. Strength against strength, strength against weakness, etc....

So, in honor of the Dating Game TV show, let's "ask some questions to the potential dates" and see how the Bills matchup against the other potential opponents in the playoffs.

The Process:

The Process is fairly simple. It is all based on a simple Matchup Rating of each team for each critical matchup criteria. Then the ratings are adjusted/weighted and then averaged.

Critical Matchup Rating

I decided not to use stats directly to compute the critical matchup rating. Instead, I will use them as a guide. Many of the matchups are based on the physical 1:1 player matchups and the combination of player and situation, so the stats don't always paint a clear picture of the matchup. As a result, I will use a subjective rating from +2 to -2 for each of the matchups for each of the teams. +2 is a really favorable matchup and -2 is a really unfavorable matchup for the Bills. I will also adjust the rating by 2 factors: a Matchup Weighting and an adjustment based on the Pass% and Run %.

Matchup Weighting

The matchup Weighting is a 1 to 10 rating where 10 is the most important matchup for the Bills (e.g. if this matchup is not in the favor of the Bills, then it would have the biggest impact on the outcome of the game).

Adjustment based on the Pass% and Run %:

The opponent's matchup rating for their offense will also be adjusted up or down based on the opponent's pass % and run %. For example, if the matchup is a passing matchup, then the rating will be adjusted up if the opponent passes more than 50% of the time. Similarly, it will be adjusted down if they pass less than 50%.

Once each criterion is rated and weighted, then the ratings will be averaged to determine an Overall Matchup Rating for the Bills. Hopefully this will tell us who we should "date" in the playoffs.

Critical Matchups Against the Opponent's Offense:

Personally, I think that these matchups are more important than the matchups against the opponent's defense. Our defense is the weakest link (especially the run defense). As a result, I will wight these matchups more heavily.

Opponent's QB

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Most of the teams have veteran QBs that can carve up a defense if given time, but that is more a factor of the scheme and the OL. This criteria is about the QB above and beyond the other supporting talent. The only QB that scares me is Mahomes. For the others if we can control the OL or cover the receivers, the QBs are not the deciding factor.

Opponents with Strong Pass Blocking OLs:

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This criteria is as important as the QB to the matchup. I know most people just look at the QB to decide if the team is tough or not, but the QB cannot be good until the OL does its work. If the Bills can't get pressure on the QB, then even an average QB could find open receivers. As you would expect, there are lots of good offensive lines in the playoffs.

Opponents with Strong Interior Running and Power Interior OL:

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This is the most critical matchup of all of the matchups. The Bills' run defense is a huge liability. They have shown that they can contain a good running team if they commit extra defenders to focus on the run, but it leaves the pass defense exposed. An example of this was the Titans game. We contained Henry but AJ Brown and Johnu Smith had their way with the Bills.

Opponents with More than 1 Good Fast Receivers

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If the opponent only has one good AND fast receiver, then Tredavious can lock him down. Where the Bills have a hole is at CB2 if the 2nd outside WR is fast AND good. Levi is good enough to cover most WR2s if they are not particularly fast, but if he has to cover a fast and good WR, it can be a liability. The same is true for Josh Norman.

Very Good receiving TEs or slot receivers

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This is true of most defenses. The inside of the field is hard to defend. There is more space than on the outside. Athletic slot receivers or TEs can find a lot of space to roam and get open. When the Bills use zone coverage this is even more true. If a veteran QB has time to throw, then this is even more of an advantage (but we covered that with other matchups).

Critical Matchups Against the Opponent's Defense:

These matchups are overall not as important because the Bills' offense is a strength.

Opponents with a Deep Defensive Backfield

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Teams with deep defensive backfields can matchup against the deep WR corps of the Bills.

Opponents with a Strong Pass rush DL

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We saw a bit of the 2019 Josh in the first half of the Steelers game where he made some questionable decisions and threw the ball with defenders all over him, but outside of that half of football, Josh has shown the ability to handle the blitz and find the hot receiver. If this was last year, this Matchup weighting would be much higher.

Opponents with a Stout DL against the Rush

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This matchup is the least important. Yes. The Bills' run offense is not great, but their short-passing game is their run game. The Bills do not need to lean on this part of the game as long as the passing is working.

Overall Matchup Rating:

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After all of the weighting / adjustments and averaging, I think this assessment ended up how I would have ranked them. I am really scared of the running teams. KC is the head of the pack. They can run and beat you by the pass with many players, but they can be beat. I think the Bills have the best chance of any of the AFC teams to beat them, but it will be a tall task if Mahomes in in his MVP mode. Tennessee, Cleveland, and Indianapolis are pick ‘em games for me. The only way that the Bills beat these teams is to outscore them and get out ahead of them so that they have to throw instead of run. Many of you will be surprised at the Ravens being a favorable matchup for the Bills, but I think this is valid. The Bills have shown that they can contain a running QB (e.g. Kyler Murray) with their fast LBs and their zone defense. The Ravens OL is a mess, so that lessens their running offense.

What do you see in the matchups? Who would you want the Bills to "date" in the playoffs?


Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.