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Reality Bites Draft Starter Kit

Question: What does the classic 90s coming of age movie, Reality Bites, about a group of teens putting together a Reality Documentary starring Ethan Hawke, Winona Ryder, Janeane Garofalo, and Ben Stiller and the draft have to do with each other?

Answer: Nothing... but Reality does Bite!

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(Picture credit from Rotten Tomatoes)

When it comes to the draft, I could spend many wasted minutes (and I have) playing with TheDraftNetworks' or Fanspeak's wildly fabulous and wildly flawed Mock Draft machines. The optimist (that I want to be) inside me keeps playing trying to get my favorite players to fall to our picks, clinging to hope on each try. But after a couple of "perfectly optimistic" attempts, the realist inside of me rises up and overtakes this "perfectly optimistic" moment of triumph. Reality Bites!!! Cursed Reality!!.... Then soon I find myself succumbed to reality like Picard to the Borg. This is not how real teams would handle the draft! It is not realistic to go into the draft with a plan that requires stars-to-align and a single choice. Embrace the reality! Resistance is futile! So, I only had one thing left to do to satisfy the realist inside of me.....

... Make a draft plan that will feed this cursed creature inside of me.

In my recent post on overall offseason strategy, I focused on a strategy plan. For the draft you also need a plan. A good plan does not assume that you will get your first choices. A good plan needs to plan for contingencies and for reality. This plan will leverage the overall strategy from my recent post. In that post, I laid out the team's wants/needs, scheme, and values. I won't repeat all of that for you here, but I will reiterate the needs & wants minus the rationale, but with some edits based on things that have happened since the post...

NOTE: For the sake of this post, I will assume that the Bills are done with Pre-draft free agency.

Needs:

Need a rotational starter:

  • RB

Wants:

Want to replace an existing full-time starter:

  • CB
  • RT (With the addition of Daryl Williams we are better, but if there is a chance to get a top-end talent at OT, then I would jump on it)
  • P

Want to replace an existing rotational starter:

  • 3rd RB
  • 4th WR
  • TE

Want to build up depth:

  • Safety
  • LB

Want to build up youth at a position:

  • Edge
  • OG/C
  • OT (New -€” even though I am pleased with the adding Daryl Williams, this is a position that we may want to add some prospects)

Even though the Bills did an OK job at filling holes in FA, the final count is 1 need and 10 wants and only 7 draft picks. The good news is that none of these are glaring or pressing needs. As a result, the Bills can do a Strategic BPA that focuses more on "best" and "long-term strategic" and less on the "short-term strategic" in the draft. Hmm... this will be fun!

The Draft:

The hardest thing about the draft is assessing the projected draft round for each prospect. Cursed Reality!!!!! There is such a wide variety of opinions and consensus out there. In real life, the 32 teams probably don't care what the consensus is. There may be a media-based consensus, but that is not a real consensus. All 32 teams have more resources than any media "expert", so they likely do their own analysis and just stick to it. If teams were to guess when a player would be available, then they would be chasing ghosts and likely miss out on players that they really like. My philosophy is that if you have a guy rated the highest on your board, then you get him. You don't wait because you think that other teams don't value him. Because teams don't know when a player will be taken, they need to prepare and be totally comfortable drafting multiple players at multiple positions.

This is not real life. I am not a real GM. This is a post by a part-time hack... So, what is a hack to do???

The TDN Mock Draft tool and Fanspeak are generally pretty good, but they are also flawed. They both have some players that are available way below their true value (Denzel Mims, Chase Claypool, Michael Pittman, JK Dobbins, Cesar Ruiz, Lucas Niang, Jonathan Taylor, etc...).

So, I tried to put some reality behind my picks by evening out the inconsistencies. To do this, I tried to find as many downloadable big boards or at the very least big boards that I could copy/paste into a spreadsheet. I found 11 big boards. That should give us a reasonable consensus. Then I converted the ranking to a rough predicted round which I could use to determine a Min, max, and average round for each prospect.

In order to further simplify the combinations of choices for this post, I reduced the full list of draft prospects to a short list of prospects that I think fit the Bills' scheme, values, and wants/needs. Then I mapped each prospect to the likely Bills draft pick that they will be available and/or taken. Of course, there are lots more great prospects and there will be some prospects that could be available in multiple rounds, but I will only have each player mapped to one pick. That means that if the Bills don't take a player for that pick, then they will not be available for the next pick. I ordered the prospects with respect to my ranking of the player.

Pre-2nd Round (#54): Possible, but not probable prospects, but you never know :-) ...especially with the RBs

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2nd Round (#54): Likely Prospects

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3rd Round (#86):

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4th Round (#128):

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5th Round (#167):

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6th Round (#188):

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6th Round (#207):

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7th Round (#239):

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UDFAs:

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Some Fun Scenarios:

As I mention in my BROP Strategy, a plan needs to account for the reality of contingencies. We don't know who will be available. The 2nd round pick will drive everything. Depending on who we take in the 2nd round, then draft will fall differently. There are lots of good scenarios out there. I like a lot of them. There aren't many bad scenarios. That is what is cool about this year. The Bills did a great job filling holes in free agency, so for the 1st time in a long time, the Bills can take some risks with some developmental prospects and some niche players. Bad teams cannot usually make these kinds of picks. They have too many holes


Dream Weaver:

(dream scenario - might as well start off dreaming like Gary Wright. players fall to their maximum, worst-rated round)

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Defense Wins Championships:

(Focus on Defense only)

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The Offense Needs to Catch Up:

(Focus on Offense only)

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Media Consensus Pure BPA:

(Pick the media consensus (average of 11 big boards) "Best" ranked player for each Bills pick irrespective of position)

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Yikes!! 4 Safeties and 2 QBs and I am not sure I like any of these players!!

OK... back to reality...

Some More Realistic Scenarios:

As I said earlier, part of the plan is to plan for contingencies. As a result, I will try to provide a 2nd and 3rd choice player for each scenario in case we get to our pick and someone has taken the 1st choice.

NOTE: I may show some options where I draft a guy higher than their media consensus average round in some of my options, but I will only do that after the 2nd round and when I have the prospect rated much higher than the general consensus. In my opinion, there really is no such thing as over-drafting or reaching in the 3rd round or lower. The difference in player rankings in the late rounds is so small and the error in evaluation of small-school and prospect players is so big. If I see a guy that I really like, then I will go after him. This is the range where teams should take risks on prospecty-type players.

Criteria for Reality:

Once I have provided for the contingencies, then strategy will take over. Here is a summary of the criteria that will help shape some of the scenarios...

Team Needs & Wants, Team Values, Team Scheme, etc...

  • I defined this above and in my previous post). Some of the needs/wants are short-term and some are long-term. In my opinion, the top two short-term needs/wants are 2nd RB and CB.

Where the talent cliff/drop off is for each position

  • RB: if you want a super-fast, powerful runner who is also a receiving threat, then you will have to trade up into the top of the 2nd round. That said, there is only a small drop off to the next group of back. This group is very deep with rotational starters all of the way out into the 5th round and there are some nice prospects all of the way through the 6th round. I actually think that the RB class is better and deeper than the WR class.
  • CB: outside of the 1st round the cliff of talent really drops off. Starting in the 2nd round the choices are limited to smaller talented DBs, 1-dimensional DBs, limited-athletically DBs, or projects. This will be a tough draft to get a complete DB outside of the 1st round. However, there are some decent prospects scattered through all rounds, but I don't see many sure starters.
  • Edge: outside of Chase Young there is a huge drop off cliff. it will be hard to find a guy that is both fast and powerful. In general, I am not wild about the Edge group this year, but there are 2 or 3 decent prospects in the middle rounds. The talent really drops off a cliff after the 4th round
  • WR: thanks to the Diggs trade, we don't really have a pressing need at this position. However, a reasonable need would be for a big WR#4 receiver that can be a situational 4th receiver in goal line situations or a gadget guy that could be used in multiple formations and positions. If you want a well-rounded starter with height and speed you will have to spend a 2nd or 3rd round pick. If you just need a big slow guy then you will have some choices through round 5
  • TE: this is a very weak class. There are no top-end prospects. But there are some decent role-type players all of the way through the 5th round.
  • LB and Safety: there are very few top sure-thing prospects, but there are decent players all of the way through the 6th round. The cliff for top talent in both of these groups is before our 2nd round pick
  • OT: this class is the deepest that I have seen for a long time. There are at least 6 legit high-level starters in this draft. But the bad news is that top OT prospects get snatched up like voting in Chicago... early and often. I don't see any top prospects making it past the early 2nd round. After that, there are some solid prospects, but I am not sure they are better than what we have. That said, there are a couple of talented but raw prospects after that.
  • OG/OC: this class is not top-heavy. Only a couple of guys that will be long-gone by the time that we pick in the 2nd round (Ruiz and Cushenberry). After that there will be some solid players through the 3rd round and then some prospecty-type players through the 7th.

First 3 picks are potential starters

  • If you are looking for starters, then you can usually count on a 2nd round pick starting or at least being a rotational player in year 1. Picks in rounds 3 and 4 usually have a less chance to start, but they might be given a chance to win a spot. In rounds 5 through 7, the players are usually prospects unless the player is a Kicker or Punter. The good news for the Bills is that I feel the talent in the 4th round is fairly high.

NOTE: I am not going to show any trades. While I think the Bills should look to trade up or down, I don't think it is realistic to try and predict them.

The Scenarios:

2 RBs & CB First:

(Top 3 picks focusing on 2nd RB, CB, 3rd RB not necessarily in this order. This scenario is for those that believe that we need a full rotation of 3 RBs where we can use different RB pairings for a given game based on the weaknesses of the opposing team - like New England does)

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RB, CB, Edge First (a.k.a. "Danger Cliff Ahead" and "Strategic BPA"):

(Top 3 picks focusing on 2nd RB, CB, Edge not necessarily in this order. This scenario is for those that believe that we either need some young talent to replace Addison/Hughes or for those that are not satisfied with the current starters at Edge/DE. It also doubles as a Strategic BPA that considers our team needs -€” 2nd RB - and where the talent drops off for certain positions - CB & Edge)

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RB, CB, OT First:

(Top 3 picks focusing on 2nd RB, CB, OT not necessarily in this order. This scenario will be for those that are not sold on the Williams signing or for those that just want to keep trying for an elite OL)

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RB, CB, WR First:

(Top 3 picks focusing on 2nd RB, CB, WR not necessarily in this order. This scenario will be for those that don't like the Edge talent and are OK with the OL situation and for those that feel like we need a 4th WR that is tall or dynamic)

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CB, Edge, WR First:

(Top 3 picks focusing on 2nd RB, OL, WR not necessarily in this order. This scenario will be for those that think Devin is a dominant RB1 or they have him in their dynasty Fantasy league so they just want him to get 60 carries a game... )

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Looking to the Future:

(Focusing the draft on long-term wants/needs. This scenario is for people that feel that any short-term needs are minor and we can live without a starter from the draft, so the focus is to look for talented prospects at all levels and positions in order to build up depth for future. I actually think this could be a viable strategy for the Bills as long as they don't reach too much. They did OK in FA, so the holes are small. But they have a lot of young players that will be coming up for new contracts (OT, S, LB), so we might have to prepare for their departure. And they have some older veterans on bigger contracts that may not be viable once we pay the young studs (OG/OC, WR, DT). They also have a lot of veterans on 1yr or short-term contracts that will be expiring (OG, CB). As a result, a reasonable strategy would be to load up on some raw, but very talented players in hopes that they could take over as starters next year so that we have more players on rookie contracts)

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My BPA w/ Some Position Strategy:

(Pure BPA just doesn't make sense to me. I get the concept, but you have to have some level of strategy. You don't want to just pick 4 Safeties and 2 QBs just because you have them the highest rated. This BPA uses some strategy to make sure that I have don't repeat too many positions)

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Optimism BPA:

(The projected early 2nd round prospects slip down to our late 2nd round pick. The rest of the slotting stays the same. This is not as wild as the Dream Weaver, but hey you never know!)

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Summary:

The first thing that I want to say is that Reality does Bite! Especially when it compels you to dive deep into the bowels of draft prospects. But I have to say that it was satisfying after it was all done to see that you can couple some Optimistic Draft Goals with some realistic scenarios that are also pretty good.

Secondly, I got a really nice side-benefit in finding a nice group of talented players that I think would be good fits for the Bills. I'm sure there are more good players, but this is a good group of talent.

As far as the scenarios go, there were not any realistic scenarios that I hated, but there were some scenarios that I didn't like as much. Of course, the "Optimism BPA" is my favorite, but I will not count on that scenario. It is not out of the realm of possibility that at least one of the "Optimism BPA" choices could come true, but this post is all about planning for contingencies, so we have to plan for some more realistic scenarios.

That said, I thought that I would really like the "RB, CB, OT First" scenario more than I did. I am a honk for the OL and for the offense beefing up their talent level. However, I just don't know if there is going to be an OT or an OG that is going to be better than what we already have on the team. If Lucas Niang falls to us in the 2nd round and his medicals are OK, then this strategy would be a good one. But with how the talent is likely to fall out, this strategy is just OK. Prince Tega Wanogho is a nice player, but I think I would rather have some other talent in the 2nd round.

I like the concept of the "2 RBs & CB First" strategy. Having 3 legitimate starting RBs that can all run and catch but with different strengths could be a huge weapon. But with all of the talent at RB in this draft, we don't need to spend two higher picks on RB. This was my least favorite scenario.

Similarly, I liked the idea of "Looking to the Future", but I think this strategy is best used as a "secondary strategy" where I just keep my eye out for some talent in positions that may help in the long-term. I found that while trying to use this as my primary strategy it put me into a position to stretch for positions. It is not a good idea to stretch for players at a certain position, especially if they are filling a long-term need.

The one that I liked the best of the realistic scenarios was "RB, CB, Edge First" with a close 2nd place for "My BPA w/ Some Position Strategy". I got some really good players at some positions of short-term need and also some long-term needs and the value was good. The problem with this strategy is that I was cherry picking specific players at CB and Edge. Overall, the talent pool for both of these positions is weak. I really didn't like any of the other players at those positions except for the ones that I picked. In general, it is not a good strategy to rely on choosing specific players because you put yourself into the position to trade up or lose the player. If you are going to use that approach as your "primary" strategy, then you need a "secondary" strategy or strategies. And you have to be prepared to not get a player at that position. A good combination would be to use "RB, CB, Edge First" for the primary strategy and then use "Looking to the Future" and "My BPA w/ Some Position Strategy" as backup strategies.

Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.