FanPost

Josh Allen's 4th Quarter Performance


Based on discussions in other posts I wanted to look at Allen's performance in close 4th quarter games to see how deserving he is of the "clutch" label. I went back and looked at most games that were within one score at some point in the 4th quarter. I say most, because I omitted a couple of games that a team scored late to make it a one score game - most notably and debatably the 24-17 loss to Baltimore this past season. My reasoning was that with these games being two scores for the majority of the quarter that defenses would be playing a lot of prevent concepts that would inflate numbers. I'm willing to acknowledge this might not be the best approach, but I felt that it painted the most accurate picture. For the actual stats I left out kneel downs that would negatively impact rushing yards and did not subtract sacks from passing yards. Also of importance, these are only for plays that occurred in the 4th quarter, even if the drive started in the 3rd.

2018

Week 6: 13-12 win vs. Tennessee

Buffalo leads 10-9 to start the 4th. Following a long Tennessee drive Buffalo gets the ball with 4:43 on their 25 trailing 12-10. Allen goes 2-2 for 20 yards on the drive but most of the heaving lifting is done by Ivory and McCoy on the ground leading to the winning 46-yard field goal. Allen's 4th quarter impact: Minimally positive. No turnovers and completed both of his passes. But this gets chalked up more to the defense holding TEN to 12 points and the rushing attack.

Week 12: 24-21 win vs. Jacksonville

Tied 14-14 to start the 4th. Allen scores on a 14 yard rushing TD to start the quarter. The rest of the quarter is a forgettable performance for Allen who is 1-5 for 6 yards. He adds a 45 yard rush on a drive they ultimately punt, and the team adds a FG after Poyer picks off Bortles on the JAX 18 (Allen subsequently rushes twice for 3 yards). Allen's 4th quarter impact: Moderately positive. I think I'm being a bit generous with that, but the run to start the quarter was impressive and gives him a bump.

Week 13: 21-17 loss @ Miami

Down 14-9 to start the quarter Allen mostly does his job to keep the team in a game that opens up a bit. 9-14 for 116 yards, a TD and a 2pt. conversion (both to Zay Jones). He adds 58 yards rushing. Allen's 4th quarter impact: Minimally positive. The numbers aren't bad and he doesn't turn the ball over. At the same time he leads only one score against the 25th ranked defensive DVOA and takes two sacks for -15 yards on the last two plays prior to Hauschka missing a 55-yard FG. Obviously the 3 points would not have changed the outcome on their own but it would have made things quite a bit more interesting. The Bills would actually get the ball to the Miami 30 on their next drive before turning the ball over on downs. If it's a one point game at that point I like Hauschka's chances from 47 and the win.

Week 14: 27-23 loss @ NYJ

The Bills lead 20-13 at the start of the 4th. Part of the blame here has to go the defense that gives up 14 points to a team that finished 29th in offensive DVOA. But a measly 3 points (on a drive that started at the Jets 13) against a team that was 21st in defensive DVOA won't do either. Allen is 6-12 for 83 yards, an interception, and 2 yards rushing. Allen's 4th quarter impact: Minimally negative. You can't ding him much for the INT. They get the ball back down 4 on their own 22 with 1:17 to play. On the second play he underthrows McKenzie.

Week 15: 14-14 win vs. Detroit

Down 13-7 to start the 4th Allen completes only two passes in the quarter but makes them count. One is a 42 yarder to Foster for the go ahead TD (well, the PAT put them ahead technically) and a 25 yarder to Jason Croom on a 2 and 9 to help put the game away. Allen's 4th quarter impact: Push. The TD is great. Final 4th quarter line though is 2-7 for 67 yards, 1 TD, and 3 yards rushing. Against the 28th ranked defensive DVOA.

2019

Week 1: 17-16 win @ NYJ

Down 16-3 to start the quarter Allen rushes and throws for a TD. Finishes the 4th quarter 7-9 for 103 yards, 11 yards rushing, and as mentioned a passing and rushing TD each. Allen's 4th quarter impact: Extremely positive. Part of me wants to make this a bit lower because I think the Jets losing Mosley and the emergence of Singletary were at least equal if not bigger impacts, but ultimately I'm giving Allen credit for a great 4th quarter.

Week 3: 21-17 win vs. Cincy

Up 14-7 to start the 4th quarter the team does enough to get the win. For his part, Allen certainly doesn't hurt the team going 3-3 for 60 yards and adding 25 yards rushing. Allen's 4th quarter impact: Minimally positive. The eye test of the stats is pretty good, but not great. But 49 of those passing yards were the play to Knox where Knox does the bulk of the work. To be fair, the pass is 29 yards down field. To be equally fair, he's wide open, the ball is underthrown causing Knox to stop, and Knox then proceeds to pretend like he got a star in super mario kart (I feel like someone else used that analogy. If so, sorry for ripping you off without giving you credit, but it's great). Also of note is that Cincinnati finished 30th in defensive DVOA.

Week 5: 14-7 win @ Tennessee

Tied at 7 to start the 4th it's Allen's throw to Duke Williams that is the difference in the score. Problem is that's really all he did in the 4th. His stat line is 3-5 for 54 yards, TD, 11 yards rushing. But 46 of those "passing yards" are actually the shovel pass jet sweep to McKenzie. He's also bailed out on that drive because following a 4 yard sack on 1st-and-10 he scrambles for 6 yards and Jurrel Casey picks up an unnecessary roughness penalty that, had the jerseys been switched, I think we would've been livid about. Allen slides and it looks like Casey tries to avoid him but glances him on the hip as he slides. It also looks like Casey is 300+ pounds so him avoiding anyone is easier said than done. Allen's 4th quarter impact: Minimally positive. It's probably more of a push but the TD to Williams is an absolute strike so he gets the bump.

Week 7: 31-21 win vs. Miami

Down 14-9 to start the 4th this game turns on Tre White's pick near the goal line. Allen does his part too, beginning with the 98-yard drive capped by a 20-yard TD to Brown and running in the 2 pt. conversion. He adds a TD to Beasley and finishes 6-7 for 67 yards, 2 TDs, and the 2 pt. conversion. Allen's 4th quarter impact: Extremely positive. To me, this Allen's best statistical performance in one of these type of games.

Week 10: 19-16 loss @ Cleveland

Down 12-9 to start the 4th both teams look relatively inept trying to put this game away. Allen's stat line isn't terrible going 7-14 for 108 yards and 3 yards rushing. He gets really lucky when he fumbles inside the Cleveland 10 and Feliciano recovers it at the 1 leading to a Frank Gore TD. Allen's 4th Quarter Impact: Push. If they lose the fumble it's definitely negative. Can't give him anything positive for this against the 22nd defensive DVOA team either.

Week 15: 17-10 win @ Pittsburgh

Down 10-7 to start the 4th I'd argue that Pitt's QB Duck Hodges does more to help the Bills win than Allen does. His pick that Tre White returns to the 10 sets up the tying FG and he throws 2 more INTs to secure the win. Allen goes 2-4 for 54 yards, 1 TD, and 8 rushing yards. Allen's 4th quarter impact: Minimally positive. The 2 completions are big ones. The first is the 40 yard pass to John Brown immediately following the playing of "Renegade" (fwiw, I think my favorite memory of the season may be the bench, specifically Matt Barkley and his towel, losing their minds on the sideline during this song). The second is a great pass to Kroft for the go-ahead score.

Week 16: 24-17 loss @ New England

Leading 17-13 after the great throw to Brown in the 3rd (for my money his best throw in a Bills' uniform, and what Brown does to Gilmore on that route is filthy) the offense and Allen sputter. 4-9 for 57 yards but also lost 12 yards on sacks. He adds 20 yard rushing. Allen's 4th quarter impact: Minimally negative. It's against the top-ranked defensive DVOA on the road so it's somewhat understandable. It's still not good.

WC at Houston

I'm leaving out recap etc. because this one still stings. Allen's line from the 4th quarter on is 8-21 for 100 yards, 25 yards lost in sacks, a fumble, and 22 yards rushing. Allen's 4th quarter impact: Moderately negative. We can debate the impact of a lot of things, but his performance down the stretch was pretty bad. I don't expect this to be a reoccurring theme for Allen in the playoffs, but it was a second half to forget.

Summary:

Allen's record in these games is 8-5 overall which is definitely nothing to scoff at. 5-1 at home and 3-4 on the road is not unusual, but it would certainly be great if the road record improved. The stats are encouraging. The TD/INT ratio is solid, and the numbers extrapolated over a game end up 275 YPG passing and 69. The passing is considerably higher than his average and would put him 8th in the league. The biggest area for improvement would be the completion % at 53.5.

TL;DR

Allen doesn't cost the team in the 4th quarter of games with turnovers and his elevated 4th quarter numbers are worthy of the clutch designation.

Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.