It's is so easy when for an "expert" to be lazy while making a proclamation. We see this through out history from so called experts. I'll give an example from World War II and how many put the Bismark and later the Tirpitz battleships for the Kriegsmarine. Many so-called experts over value just the capabilities of these two ships. What became apparent was that they were probably a little more powerful than the South Dakota Class Battleships but were inferior to the North Carolina Class battleships. But they were no where close to the Iowa Class Battleships of the Americans or the Yamato class battleships of the Imperial Japanese Navy. But many so called experts make proclamations about just how good the Bismark is and considering it was doomed from an incredibly obsolete British Swordfish torpedo bomber it truly is overrated.
How does this apply to the NFL? I'm glad you asked as I look at Tom Brady and how many are placing him as this still elite talent I had to look at his game stats. Specifically I wanted to look at the last 9 games of 2019. This would be the last half of the season as well as the playoff game. This would also be the shift when the Patriots defense was cooling off from their insanely hot start and returned to a normally very good defense instead of the world beater defense it started out early. What does the numbers look like when we take a look at the second half of the season for Tom Brady? The half that had six playoff teams involved out of the nine games mentioned as opposed to just one game in the first eight games.
Tom Brady's last nine games as a Patriot he was 193/341 attempts with a completion percentage of 56%, 5.9 yards per attempt which is average at best. He had 11 TDs and 5 interceptions for a passer rating of 76.9. For kicks and giggles here is Josh Allen's last 9 games.
Josh Allen in his last nine games was (I will be excluding Week 17 because JA was basically sitting the entire game so it will be the last 8 games before week 17) 158/279 attempts with a completion percentage of 57%, 6.9 yards per attempt which is better than TB 12. He had 11 TDs and 2 INTs for a passer rating of 90.6. I did not include rushing to make everything equal since TB12 is not a runner.
So what have we seen and how does this impact lazy "experts"? Well, I would ague that the offensive line for the Patriots has always been better than most. I also believe that TB12 has Coach Belicheck and his defense made it much easier on the offense. Rarely did Brady have to completely abandon an game plan because the defense kept him in striking distance.
How does TB12 and the Bismark myths interrelate? People have started to make up excuses for both as people realize that Bismark and Tirpitz was a hindrance to the German Navy and Tom Brady was an average QB in 2019. Neither is often talked about because people by into these myths and continue to just continue these stoylines. Tom Brady at one point may of been the GOAT but he doesn't play like the GOAT anymore. German Battleships were looking back took way too many supplies, materials, manning, fuels and were a money pit. But when did facts ever influence so called "experts?"
NFL Random Thoughts:
1.) I really hope that Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen can come up with a throw off for the strongest arm in the league. This would be a great thing for charity to raise for a worthy cause but I believe it will be a great competition I would watch rather than the Pro Bowl.
2.) Stefon Diggs is the best WR the Bills have had on the roster since Eric Moulds. I know some will mention Sammy Watkins but Watkins after he discussed his time in Buffalo was never truly committed to Buffalo. Moulds was traded from Buffalo in 2005 so it's been 15 years since the Bills had a WR the caliber of Eric Moulds. I wonder why sometimes the Bills went through such a long playoff drought, and I can look at this fact and I know it was because the Bills cut corners in team building.
3.) Pay Tre White! Nothing else really needs to be said on thus, Tre is worth the money. He embodies the Bills and he is the leader of the defense. Tre has stepped up and taken the leadership mantle. He is also in my opinion one of the most technically sound corners in the league.
4.) The Tennessee Titans are going to fall back down to earth this year. Too many good luck things occurred last year and I truly believe that it is time for them to return back to their nice and common 7-9/9-7 type of season.
5.) Time to play my favorite game, which team is going to ruin their rookie QB in the first season? As many of you thought back in 2018 when the Bills started Nathan Peterman and didn't really give JA the support he needed the true winner of that game was the Cardinals. That's right the Cardinals ruined Josh Rosen in less than a year. Also, it appears that both Cleveland and the New York Jets are taking the long game with ruining their 2018 drafted QBs. For this year I believe that the Bengals are to a lesser extent the Dolphins will ruin their young signal caller. Joe Burrow because of Covid and his lack of time with OTAs and Mini-Camps shouldn't be starting, but he will because it's the Bengals. Rookies are going to struggle mightily for the first half of the year because of the lack of practice. Add in the most complex position in sports on top of being a rookie with Covid and starting a rookie QB is idiotic. Miami I believe will hold off starting Tua for a few games but once Fitzpatrick has a Fitzpatrick game and he will start before he is ready.
6.) The Chargers will sit Justin Herbert for the whole year or at least the vast majority. This obviously is because Tyrod Taylor is a perfect gap QB. He is the constant professional and will do enough to keep the team competitive and I wouldn't be shocked if Tyrod got the Chargers into the playoffs or at least competing for a playoff spot in Week 16 and Week 17. Herbert has a ton to learn to be ready to play in the NFL and I'll just say it, Oregon QBs come with a ton of blown expectations.
7.) The Washington Football Team I believe made the right decision to change their name. I also believe that given the testimony and claims of sexual harassment in the organization the NFL needs to seriously think of stripping the franchise from Dan Snyder.
8.) The following coaches will not make it out of the season still as a head coach.
Doug Marrone: Marrone is the Ham and Cheese of the coaching world. I mean, it's there and you have it for lunch but you don't look forward to a Ham and Cheese you just eat it because you're trying to save money.
Adam Gase: Gase is three day old pizza. We've all been there, you are hung over on a Saturday morning and you look into the fridge and see pizza from Wednesday night. You don't want the pizza but you're not in the mood to make anything so there you are eating a slice of pizza and a coffee while hung over. You pulled a Gase.
Matt Patricia: There is no food in the house, you have no money for anything really good. You get paid tomorrow so for dinner you have a nice big breath of air. That's Matt Patricia.
9.) Drew Brees, I'm hoping you didn't make a mistake by trying to go one more year. It's obvious his body has declined and he lives only off of the short pass. I don't want him to have a bad year for his last year. I fear thou, he will be that.
10.) I would love for Tom Brady to stay one year too late and have his last year be garbage. Why? Because no one allows anyone to have an opinion on TB12 other than he's the GOAT. I hate that everything is already set in stone for his legacy. No, I want to look at the totality of the circumstances for Brady. Looking at the last games of Brady in New England I got to believe that he is more legend than player.
11.) It's ok to have different opinions on politics. However, I would like people to stop using the military to support their arguments. I'll give an example, people who kneel disrespect the military or the military is fighting for a person's right to take a kneel. Personally I want to say this to both sides as a military member. Leave the military out of your whole argument.
12.) I believe that Drew Lock will struggle in year two with how he finished. Why? Because his started like a Lion and finished like a Lamb. Simply put after teams got tape on Lock they changed fire and Lock got spooked. Can he regain his confidence? Maybe, but when teams smell blood in the water they will act like sharks.
13.) I wish Gardner Minshew the best of luck because he feels like he isn't as processed as some players in the league. What do I mean by this? Minshew I believe has found that fine line with being himself while also being a professional. Something Baker Mayfield hasn't figured out.
14.) Josh Allen seems to still be haunted by that Houston Texans lose in the playoffs. In that game I saw one thing over and over again. The lack of a true #1 WR hurt Josh Allen. Two pass plays that were dropped by Duke Williams high lighted the Bills lack of a 6' foot ball hawking WR. I'm happy that Josh Allen keeps going back to that Texans play off lose and it hurts... but the Bills have more weapons this year.
15.) Why is JJ Watt talking about anything with the NFL season when he will miss at least half of it with an injury?
Have a great weekend!!