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Buffalo Bills’ 2020 Over/Under predictions

The good doctork44 brings us his wagers for the season

Whether for fun or for financial gain (hopefully), many people are drawn to wager on statistics within NFL football’s bigger game. With the Buffalo Bills at 1-0 and riding high following what many believe to be Josh Allen’s best game as a pro, we think it’s fair to consider what the season may hold for the Bills’ chances at meeting or exceeding odds.

With that said, here are a few odds doctork44 would like you to consider:

Over or under, 2.5 300+ passing yard games for Josh Allen?

I know, I know, we all hate this statistic for Josh. It’s one of two statistical categories that the Josh haters often throw in the face of Bills fans when they’re looking to score a point in the “Does Josh suck debate?” Nonetheless, the Bills’ young quarterback has never in his career, whether at Wyoming or here with the Bills, had a game with 300+ passing yards. In his rookie season in 2018, there were 132 occasions where a quarterback threw for 300+ yards in a game, and another 132 times in 2019. If you multiply the number of games (16) in a season by the number of teams (32), and divide that number (512) into the number of times (132) a quarterback threw for 300+ yards in a game. Statistically speaking, a Bills team should have a 26% chance of a quarterback passing for 300+ yards in a game this season. However, theoretically speaking, Josh has never done it and a Bills team hasn’t done it since Tyrod Taylor threw for 326 yards against the Miami Dolphins in 2016.

Considering all of these factors, I’m setting the over or under at 2.5.—even with Sunday’s 300-yard performance in the books.

Over or under, 10.5 wins for the Buffalo Bills in 2020?

Expectations are at an all-time high for the Buffalo Bills’ 2020 season. No matter where you look, the Bills are considered the favorite to win the AFC East outright for the first time since 1995. There is good reason for the high expectations. The Bills are bringing back at top-five defense, under defensive coordinator/assistant head coach Leslie Frazier. Josh Allen is in his third year with offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, and is expected to take the next step in his maturation. General manager Brandon Beane and his staff brought in key veterans and rookies who should bolster the starting lineup and the depth on the team. And for the first time in 20 years, the New England Patriots are Brady-less.

Many prognosticators are projecting the Bills to win 11 games. However, it’s hard to expect the Bills avoiding major injuries this season as they did last season, especially with the COVID-19 pandemic. Also, the Bills are expected to face the 17th toughest schedule. All of this makes it hard to expect the team to win 11 games this season—a feat they haven’t done since 1999.

Factoring in both sides of the debate, I’m setting the over or under for wins this season at 10.5.

Over or under, 1.5 Playoff wins for the Buffalo Bills in 2020?

It’s been 25 years since the Buffalo Bills last won a playoff game, when they beat the Miami Dolphins 37-22, in Rich Stadium. The last time they won two playoff games, was in 1993, when they beat the Los Angeles Raiders and the Kansas City Chiefs, eventually losing to the Dallas Cowboys in the Super Bowl. So it goes without saying that there hasn’t been much playoff success over the past 25 years for the Bills. But the argument can be made that this is the best team the Bills have had over that span.

Projecting the Bills to win two games, you’re basically projecting them to at least make it to the conference championship game or, if the Bills were to secure a bye week, the Super Bowl. The idea isn’t as far-fetched as it seems, considering the Tennessee Titans—a team the Bills beat last season—won two games.

With the heightened expectations and a down AFC East, the Bills can win the division and play a home game.

Over or under, 3.5 NFL games being postponed in 2020?

As many of you know, these are some uncertain times that we find ourselves living in. For the first time in many of our lives, we’ve seen a disruption of play in the major sports we follow. NBA teams postponed games in protest of police brutality. MLB teams postponed games due to COVID-19 outbreaks within their clubs. NCAA basketball canceled the entire season. NCAA football is canceled among some of the major conferences. Currently, there are wild fires burning in the California bay area, putting the San Francisco 49ers’ opener at risk, due to poor air quality.

It’s almost a miracle that we’re having NFL football at all this season considering all that has happened and may continue to happen in the upcoming months. There’s a good chance that teams will continue to be impacted by some of these events, as well as the usual weather-related events (hurricanes and snow storms) we tend to get during the football season. Therefore, it’s not unreasonable to think that we can expect some games to get postponed this season. How often has this happened? Here is what I was able to find:

  • (2001) All Week 2 games were canceled because of the 9/11 attacks. Games were made up at the end of the year.
  • (2008) Hurricane approaching in Houston, game was postponed.
  • (2010) Heavy snow in Minneapolis forced the Minnesota Vikings and New York Giants to play their game the next day. Later that year, Minnesota was forced to postpone another game against the Philadelphia Eagles.
  • (2014) Heavy snow forced the Bills to play a game the next day in Detroit against the New York Jets.
  • Apparently, there have been others in Miami over the years, due to weather as well.

Considering there haven’t been any games postponed in the last three seasons and also factoring in the other elements that may cause a disruption in the season, I’m setting the over or under at 3.5 games.

Okay Bill fans, what do you think? I’d love to hear what you have to say in the comments below, especially if you have your own odds for us to consider.