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Buffalo Bills would take commanding lead in race for AFC 1 seed with win

The Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs finished number two and number one in the AFC playoff rankings last year, respectively. Even though it’s just Week 5, this game has massive implications down the line for playoff seeding once again.

The Bills have a very easy remaining schedule based on current record of opponents. Three AFC teams that sit at 1-3 account for five total games out of the remaining 13. In fact, only two teams remaining on their schedule have winning records right now; Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers (if you can believe it). If they can beat the Chiefs, they will win any tiebreakers over them and put themselves three games up on Kansas City in the race for the one seed.

Football Outsiders says that if Buffalo wins, they earn the bye and the one seed in more than 50 percent of their season simulations.

If Buffalo loses, they still have a good shot at the bye at 20 percent, but the Baltimore Ravens take over as the favorite with 27 percent of simulation. Baltimore, of course, already has a win over the Chiefs this season.

Home field advantage hasn’t meant much in the NFL this season, but getting the bye into the divisional round would certainly help get players healthy down the stretch for a run to the Super Bowl.