Buffalo’s chances of making the playoffs sit at 91% after four weeks.
That is in large part to their two-game lead in the AFC East. At 3-1, the Bills have a large lead over the 1-3 teams in their division. The New York Jets, New England Patriots, and Miami Dolphins all share that poor record, giving Buffalo an 86 percent chance of repeating as AFC East champs. That’s 15 percent higher than any other division prediction, but the Bills are the only division frontrunner with a two-game lead at this point.
For the first-round bye, the Bills are at 22 percent and tied with the Baltimore Ravens in the race for the one seed. Baltimore has a win over the Kansas City Chiefs already this season, so this weekend’s game is very important for Buffalo in that regard.
As far as winning the Super Bowl, the other prediction on FiveThirtyEight’s board? Buffalo is second to Tampa Bay with an 11 percent chance.
FiveThirtyEight likes the Chiefs in this game, 60-40.