I think that is probably is, although anything can happen in the NFL.
A loss on Monday would put NE squarely in the drivers seat in the AFC East with a two game lead over the Bills. Next we will be facing Brady and the Bucs on a short week, without our pro-bowl corner-back, on the road; a very difficult game.
I believe it will take 11 wins in a 17 game season to be assured of a wild card game. If the Bills loose to New England and Tampa, they would have to win out to reach 11 wins, with New England looming on the road. No room for error such as a clunker like the Jacksonville game.
On the other hand with a win on Monday we would be in the division lead and one up in the loss column.
It is difficult to understate what a big game it is.