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A New Mexican BROP

Buffalo isn't in a great salary cap position, quite possibly being about $1 million underwater and needing to clear some space. NFLPA head DeMaurice Smith recently made some comments about how the lowered cap should not result in lowered spending, suggesting that teams pay players now with the expectation that the cap will increase after the virus has passed. That would make sense if the drop in revenue was tied to the virus and not also due to the NFL actively alienating customers by injecting politics in our escapist entertainment. The virus will pass; the alienated fans will not return—and the viewership trend line has been heading in the wrong direction for several years now. The NFL got a wake up call in the negotiations with Disney (ESPN), with reports being that the league's attempt to increase the cost of MNF from $2 billion per year to $3.5 billion per year was met with derisive laughter. Still, the report is that the deal is going to be bigger than it was -€” much to my amazement as the "big" audience isn't as big as it was -€” at $2.4 to $2.6 billion for a 10 year deal. Nevertheless, the salary cap should rise in the coming years just nowhere near as quickly as NFL happy talk would have led GMs to believe.

The downside to this approach is that it does hamstring future flexibility and you'll see that in the plan below. I don't think Buffalo has any other option as the window is open now. How long can the Bills remain among the best teams in the league? With no way of knowing the answer to that question, Buffalo has to take advantage of the opportunity now.

CAP TO START -$1M

Trade Mitch Morse. With both Pouncey brothers retiring both the Steelers and the Chargers find themselves with a serious need at center. Roethlisberger is at the end of his career and could just retire but he wants to play and Pittsburgh wants him to return. I'm targeting them with the Chargers as a backup plan. I send Morse + 61 + 93 for 55 + 87. This puts Morse's value as an early 4th round pick, which I think is a bit low but would rather short the Bills than go with best case scenarios.

CAP AFTER TRADE $4.8M

Cut Mario Addison as a 6/1 transaction. This saves $7.5M.

CAP AFTER CUT $11.3M

Trade John Brown. The Bills just can't afford to keep him and he has some value, particularly to teams that are short on weapons. Chicago is one such team but there are others. Again, I went with a low valuation for the trade—about a mid 4th rounder. I send Brown + 55 + 87 for 52 + 83. This saves $7.9M.

CAP AFTER TRADE $19.2M

Cut Vernon Butler. This saves $6.8M.

CAP AFTER CUT $26M

Cut Quinton Jefferson. This saves $6.5M.

CAP AFTER CUT $32.5M

Cut Tyler Matakevich. This saves $3.35M

CAP AFTER CUT $35.85M

Retire Lee Smith. He can retire or he can be cut. I'm good with it either way. This saves $2.25M.

CAP AFTER RETIREMENT/CUT $38.1M

Restructure Tre White. Here is where the robbing Peter to pay Paul begins. By restructuring his contract now the Bills won't be able to go back to that particular well in a future year. And it is the deepest well. The restructure saves $7.55M.

CAP AFTER RESTRUCTURE $45.65M

Re-sign Matt Barkley for 2 years/$4M. He's what I want in a backup QB. He's a team first guy who has stepped in and played reasonably well for a backup. He isn't a starting quality QB and he knows it. $1M signing bonus, $1.075M first year, $2.025M second year with no guarantee. Cap hit for 2020 $1.575M.

Re-sign Daryl Williams for 4 years/$34M. I'm not feeling great about this deal as I don't think Williams is a great RT but the Bills are in a bit of a spot. He gets a $14M bonus, $1M in 2021, $6M in 2022, $6M in 2023, and $7M in 2024. Years 2 and 3 are guaranteed. Cap hit for 2021 is $4.5M. (This should be a little higher than he actually receives)

Re-sign Jon Feliciano for 4 years/$36M. I'm looking to move him to center. He gets a $16M bonus, $1M in 2021, $6M in 2022, $6M in 2023, and $7M in 2024. Years 2 and 3 are guaranteed. Cap hit for 2021 is $5M. (This should be a little higher than he actually receives)

Tender Levi Wallace for 1 year. $2.24M.

Tender Ike Boettger for 1 year. $2.24M.

Re-sign Corey Bojorquez for 2 years/$5M. I'm not crazy about this deal either as he hasn't been as consistent as I would have liked. He gets $1M bonus, $1M in 2021, $3M in 2022. 2022 is guaranteed. Cap hit for 2021 is $1.5M.

Resign Andre Roberts for 2 years/$4M. I let McDermott talk me into keeping him. He gets $1M bonus, $1.1M in 2021, $1.9M in 2022. None is guaranteed. Cap hit for 2021 is $1.6M.

Re-sign Isaiah McKenzie for 2 years/$3M. He gets a $0.5M bonus, $1M in 2021 and $1.5M in 2022. None is guaranteed. Cap hit for 2021 is $1.25M.

Re-sign Ty Nsekhe for 1 year/$3.5M. He gets $3.5M, which is also his cap hit.

Add them all up and the cap space falls from $45.65M down to $22.245M. The Bills are stuck with Daryl Williams, Jon Feliciano, and Corey Bojorquez due to guaranteed salaries in future years. If Bojorquez stinks the Bills can cut him but they're going to pay him $3M in 2022 and take the cap hit. Still, the guarantees along with signing bonuses give the players reason to sign the deals. Speaking of which....

Re-sign Matt Milano for 4 years/$50M. He gets and $18M bonus, $1M in 2021, $10M in 2022, $11M in 2023 and $10M in 2024. Years 2 and 3 are both guaranteed. If Milano can't hold up this deal becomes an albatross for the franchise. His cap hit in 2021 is $5.5M. (My backup plan would be Jaylon Brown but he's the same size and also coming off an injury-marred 2020.)

CAP AFTER ABOVE MOVES $16.745M

The Bills should need about $5M to sign their draft class. That leaves about $11M but the team is going to have holes to fill as I am not re-signing Trent Murphy, Josh Norman, Tyler Kroft, Brian Winters, Taiwan Jones, TJ Yeldon, Dean Marlowe, EJ Gaines, Andres Smith, and Del'Shawn Phillips to anything other than minimal contracts. Most will leave for greener pa$ture$.

Entering the draft the Bills have picks 30, 52, 83, 158, 171, 210, and 230. The improvement in the 2nd and 3rd round positions ought to help the Bills land some guys they are going to need if the window is going to remain open. I looked at dealing back to 35 with Atlanta but for a 4th and a 2022 4th I couldn't justify missing the guy I was looking to take at 30. I know that teams overpay but didn't want to assume Atlanta would give Buffalo their 2nd and 3rd. I stayed put. For my reference I used DraftTek's big board and took players who were at or slightly after Buffalo's picks.

30: OG Alijah Vera-Tucker. The Bills have LT Dawkins, C Feliciano, OG Ford, RT Williams, reserve interior OL Boettger, reserve swing tackle Nsekhe and need another OG. He might have been available at 35 but I didn't want to risk losing him to New Jersey or Jacksonville for a couple of 4th round picks.

52: DL1T Tyler Shelvin. Other draft sites have Shelvin as a late 3rd round guy but DraftTek has him right at 52. I don't want to miss him as I need him to spend 2021 as Star's backup in order to replace him in 2022. Shelvin and Star should make for a stouter goal line defense as well.

83: TE Brevin Jordan. When I did the first draft of this I had Buffalo signing Hunter Henry as the big free agency acquisition but kept coming back to the OLB need. Hopefully Jordan can do more than Dawson Knox—maybe even make Knox better with some competition for the starting job. DraftTek had him about 85 on their big board.

158: CB Trill Williams. He's a tall CB. Buffalo got burned by tall WRs and didn't have anyone who could really match up with them.

171: CB Benjamin St-Juste. He's another tall CB. If Williams doesn't work out hopefully St-Juste will. Either way the new DBs ought to be able to help out on special teams.

210: DL5T Osa Odighizuwa. I thinned out the DL and needed to add a body.

230: LB Tony Fields. In an ideal world he'll prove a good coverage LB but I signed him more for special teams than any great hope for him to get defensive snaps.

RECAP

The Bills head into the offseason with about $11M in cap space. Beane said he wants to get Allen's extension done after the draft so that could go up a little depending on Beane's wizardry. Much of that money is going to be eaten up filling out the roster.

Deletions: Morse, Addison, Brown, Butler, Jefferson, Matakevich, Smith, Trent Murphy, Josh Norman, Tyler Kroft, Brian Winters, Taiwan Jones, TJ Yeldon, Dean Marlowe, EJ Gaines, Andres Smith, Del'Shawn Phillips

Restructure: White, Allen (not until after the draft)

Re-signings: Barkely, Williams, Feliciano, Wallace, Boettger, Bojorquez, Roberts, McKenzie, Nsekhe

Free agent: Milano (or Brown)

Draft: Alijah Vera-Tucker, Shelvin, Jordan, Williams, St-Juste, Odighizuwa, Fields

The Bills have to hope that the cap goes up fairly significantly year after year for the next 3 seasons. They are locked into Williams, Feliciano, and Milano for 3 seasons and Bojorquez for 2 seasons. Money was pushed into future seasons by using minimal salaries in 2021 and big signing bonuses. This will limit Buffalo's flexibility down the road in exchange for keeping the window open now. The only real loss on offense was Brown, with Morse being replaced. The defense -€” particularly the defensive line -€” saw significant losses but is getting Star back and added Shelvin. The defensive backfield lost several contributors, adding back in a pair of 5th round draft picks. The defensive losses weren't all replacement-level quality but also weren't critical components.

Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.