FanPost

Should I Stay Or Should I Go?

The Clash captured the typical dating conundrum ... Should I stay or should I go?

This sentiment also rings very true in NFL Free Agency. Lots of complexity, but the decisions boil down to Should I stay or should I go?

Originally, I did not think they would cut John Brown and could sign Williams, Feliciano, and Milano. They did. I think these contracts are a win-win for the Bills and for the players. With the crazy cap situation, I am not sure any of these guys would have gotten more than what the Bills gave them.

While these were great signings, the Bills are still less talented than the team that left the field in the AFC Championship game. There is still work to do.

So, what is REALISTICALLY left in Free Agency for the Bills???

To answer that question, I think we have to look at the whole roster. One of the flaws in free agency is just looking at who you can cut to create money and who you can pick up. As Brandon Beane and McD have said over and over... "we are building a team". Also, Brandon Beane has always been a disciple of the mantra of "free agency is about filling the holes in your roster" so that the team can use the draft for BPA and long-term needs.

What Money is left?

Spotrac says that we have $10,128,847 left using the Top 51 rule. But that does not include Feliciano's recent deal. His deal is reported to be under $6 mil. So, if we assume that Feliciano got a $5.5 mil contract, then the team has $8,828,847 mil left in cap space using the top 51 rule. If you look at the top 53, then the team has $5,948,847. But remember every team needs to reserve at least $5 mil to have during the season for in-season moves (trades, cuts, etc...). That leaves only $948,847. Yikes!!!

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Even so, the Top 51 rule does not "build a team". While the Top 51 rule is important because every team needs to stay under this number during the offseason. It is deceiving when using it to determine what the team needs and how to use our remaining money. What really matters is filling the holes and eventually getting under the cap with the 53-man roster.

With that in mind, let's look at the roster to see if there are any holes to fill with only a very small amount of money left.

The Current Roster and its "Holes":

On the current roster we have 7 DEs and only 8 O-linemen and 4 DBs. A team usually only keeps 4 or 5 DEs and they keep at least 10 Offensive linemen and 6 DBs. So, as you can see, the Top 51 is very deceiving when trying to determine where the holes are. Of course, we could draft some of these positions that are light, but the goal of free agency is to try and fill as many holes as possible before the draft so that you don't have a lot of NEEDs going into the draft. The chart below shows the overloaded and underloaded positions on the current roster.

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And the numbers don't show the full set of holes. Many of these positions are "filled" with Practice Squad players and other non-53 roster players.

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There is 1 position that does not have a starter: Punter. 1 position that does not have a proven starter: CB2. And there are 4 positions with serious depth issues: Offensive Line, Defensive Backs, Tight End, and Wide Receiver. Sure, there are other positions that I would like to improve like 1-Tech DT and DE, but the other positions have some significant holes that need to be filled and we can't go into the draft with that many holes.

Punter:

We need to either re-sign Bojo or sign a guy.

Offensive Line:

Do you want to go into a season with high hopes for this team with Jordan Devey and Trey Adams as significant backups? I don't. I know many are high on Trey Adams, but he has had major back problems. For a big man, that could be death to a career. I would not count on him for anything at this point. If he beats the odds, then great, but I will not count on him for anything at this point. In my mind, we only have 6 or 7 Offensive Linemen (depending on how you feel about Jordan Devey) at this point, so we need at least 3-4 more to fill our holes.

Defensive Backs:

I am high on Dane Jackson as CB2, but this is also a position that we need some more numbers. All we got is White, Jackson, Lewis. I am "OK" with waiting until after the draft and adding a vet, but that is very precarious. I still view Lewis as a Practice Squad "break in an emergency" roster player. I would feel better to add a vet here.

Tight End:

I know that we have 5 TEs on the roster, but what a woeful group. Knox is a lock, but none of the other guys are really NFL caliber TEs. Smith is an elite blocker, but that is it. Sweeney and Becker are plodding under-athletic versions of Lee Smith. Gilliam is a special teamer only.

Wide Receiver:

While last year we had a bumper crop of receivers and it was the life blood of this offense, we lost John Brown and Isaiah McKenzie. Brown and McKenzie were the only true speed threats on the team. Replacing them are some slow big slot receivers (Kumerow, Williams, and Hodgins). That is not the direction this team needs to go. Speed is the reason that Josh had some many open receivers. Davis is nice, but he is not fast. This offense will take huge steps backwards if we don't replace the speed that we lost.

Priorities for filling the "holes":

Based on these "Holes", here are what I believe to be the Bills' priorities prior to the draft. These are guys that will be signed by other teams if we wait until after the draft. Some of them might be replaced by rookies or other vet minimum guys if they are beat out in camp, but I think we need to sure up these positions as an insurance policy.

  1. Ike Boettger (we NEED more capable depth on the interior OL. Boettger saved us last year when Ford and Feliciano went down. In my mind, he is a "gotta have" signee)
  2. Isaiah McKenzie (I want to add another developmental WR in the draft too, but we need to add speed to this group. The bottom half of the receiver group is super slow. That does not work in today's NFL. Also, we don't have a punt returner on the squad)
  3. Levi Wallace (I am not a huge fan of his. He gets burned regularly in man coverage, but he is capable and proven)

Boettger and Wallace are RFAs. I could put original round tenders on each of them, but if they were signed away then we would not get compensation. Because of this, I would put a 2nd round RFA tender on Boettger ($3,384,000). With all of the teams desperate for OL help, he will definitely get that price. He is a capable starter and fairly young. I am on the fence with Wallace. He could be signed away at above the 2nd round tender, but I will gamble that the lack of cap space will push his price down so I think the Bills will just give him an original round tender ($2,183,000).

Pre-Draft Free Agency Strategy:

The strategy here is to fill the "holes" that you cannot afford to have going into the draft. The draft is unpredictable. You can't assume that you will get a capable starter or much less a capable backup after the 2nd or 3rd round.

What can be done to create space?

The Bills have a lot of holes with just $8,828,847 in cap space with the Top 51 salaries. What is worse is that at the end of camp we need the Top 53 salaries to fit in the cap space above the in-season reserve ($5 mil). It seems like there are too many holes for that amount of money. However, there is some movement that can happen.

The key is staying under the Top 51 while also trying to fill the holes and keeping an eye on the Top 53 above the in-season reserve. The good news is that when you add a player, the cap hit that you are adding is the difference between the new player's contract and the 51st players' contract. For example, if you add a player for $1 mil and the 51st player has a $780K salary, then you only add $220K to the Top 51.

Cuts/Restructures/Extensions:

The thing that most people are missing with all of this Free Agency talk is the timing of everything. If the Bills want to be players in free agency, then all of these things have to be done by Thursday.

Cuts:

Sure, the Bills can cut all kinds of players and create cap space, but very rarely would a team cut players to create more holes on their roster prior to free agency and prior to the draft unless they have to. There are lots of players that will likely get cut before the start of the season:

  • Lee Smith
  • Harrison Phillips or Vernon Butler
  • Tyler Matekavich

However, I would be really surprised if the Bills would create roster holes by cutting any of these guys before free agency or the draft unless they had a once in a lifetime player that they had to sign.

Restructuring:

The same is true of restructuring. I know everyone is throwing around this term like it is candy on Halloween. It is the magic solution to everything in free agency. Just restructure. It's easy! I really don't think that Beane will do any more restructuring this year. And I don't think it would be smart. The Bills have already back-ended several of their players contracts. If we continue that trend, then we won't be able to sign Allen.

Extensions:

What I could see the Bills doing is possibly extending some players that they want on the team for the long-term. The problem is who would that be? They already extended Poyer, Hyde, Dawkins, Morse, Hughes. Maybe there are one or two, but if they don't do it in the next couple of days, then they miss out on the timing of Free Agency for the bigger FA targets. Either way, this kind of move will likely only clear a couple million $

Are all of these things possible? Sure. Are they likely? I don't think so.

So, what can they do?

With all of those constraints what can the Bills do. Timing still matters. If they are going to make big moves, then need to make other adjustments before Thursday. Here are some scenarios.

Option #1 - Homerun Scenario:

I think this is what most people are hoping for.

Based on my calculations, I think they could make one $8 mil signing and also have some money to fill in some holes before the draft. They would not need to restructure or extend anyone, but they would have to make some cuts.

My homerun dream is that the Bills sign Jonnu Smith. However, this scenario would work with any other player that you want to go after in that price range (e.g. re-sign John Brown, Carl Lawson, Ndamakin Suh, Gronk, Romeo Okwara, etc...).

Cuts Before Free Agency:

These cuts need to happen before Thursday to free up enough money to sign Jonnu (or insert your favorite mid-tier FA) and to stay under the Top 51 salary cap rule.

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Cuts After Free Agency To make Final 53:

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Adds:

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Final Roster:

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Resulting Cap:

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Concerns:
  • I did not get a veteran CB.
  • I have to go with an unknown "JAG" punter
  • I have to rely on Jordan Devey, a rookie, or a vet minimum player as my IOL 2nd backup
  • I have to rely on Trey Adams, a rookie, or a vet minimum player as my 2nd OT backup.
  • I have to rely on getting some speed at WR in the draft
  • I need all 7 of my rookie draft picks to make the final 53
Positives:
  • I got Jonnu Smith. My status as the Jonnu Smith Fan Club President is solidified!
  • I have my backup OG in Boettger
  • I got some security in the Safety room with Marlowe

Could we get by with that? Sure. Is it smart? That is a harder question. However, I would say it is very risky.

Option #2 - Value:

I don't think the Bills go after another mid-tier FA before the draft. I think they will just try to just fill some holes and then wait to see if some talent falls down to a "value" price.

Cuts Before Free Agency:

None.

Cuts After Free Agency To make Final 53:

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Adds:

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Final Roster:

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Resulting Cap:

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Concerns:
  • I have to rely on Jordan Devey, a rookie, or a vet minimum player as my IOL 2nd backup
  • I did not get Jonnu Smith and I lose my standing as the Jonnu Smith Fan Club President
Positives:
  • I have my backup OG in Boettger
  • I got some security in the Safety room with Marlowe
  • If Dane Jackson or a rookie doesn't work out at CB2, I have a proven vet in Wallace
  • Bojo gives us at least a known baseline for punter. I expect rookie or vet punter is brought in to complete. Bojo is inconsistent, but he improved last year. If he takes a step forward in his consistency and his inside the 20 yd punts, he could be a really dangerous punter.
  • I hope we never have to use Ty Nsekhe, but he is still a great swing tackle
  • I have some speed in the lineup again at WR with the addition of McKenzie.
  • I don't need all of my drat picks to hit. If they don't then I have some money to go out and get some capable backups
  • They have some cap flexibility to pick up a vet TE for a mid-level contract to push Knox. There are tons of very capable upgrades at TE out in free agency and many of them can be had for bargain basement prices (e.g. Moe Ali-Cox, James O'Shaunessey, Seth Devalve, etc...). We may even get lucky and pick up a higher level vet at a reasonable price like Jared Cook, Kyle Rudolph, Tre Burton, Tyler Eifert, etc...

Conclusion:

It really comes down to the level of risk the Bills want to take. If the Bills feel like that extra player is the difference between making the Super Bowl or not. If so, they take Option #1 (or something like it). If not, then I think the Bills will go for Option #2.

I know most of us will be tempted to do Option #1 (myself included), but what strategy do you think the Bills will take?


Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.