I know that I have been beating the salary cap drum lately in comments (much to the dismay of many of you... ). But I am going to beat it one more time ... hopefully to clear things up. I know that there has been a lot of back and forth on this already, but hear me out. I think this information is interesting and useful.
Facts:
- Beane can restructure some of the bigger contracts and create lots of cap space for 2021
- Teams have to stay under the Top 51 rule during the offseason
- Signing the 1st and 2nd round 2021 draft picks will impact the current Top 51 status (because they will likely be greater than the 50thand 51stsalaries on the roster).As a result, the Top 51 status today will be off by about $800K
- Once a team makes final cuts in August all 53 players must fit under the cap. The final 53 is different from the Top 51 in that when you can't just cut off the top 53 salaries and be done. In order to get a true representation where you are you have to...
- Make sure that your final 53 has a reasonable number of players at each position (e.g. you don't want 7 TEs, 5 QBs, etc...
- Consider how much money should be reserved for in-season moves. It takes cap space to move people on and off the roster during the season (e.g. promotes and demotes to the practice squad, signing/cutting/trading players due to injuries, etc...).
- You need to consider dead cap that is created by cutting players
Debatable Topics:
- What are the current contracts?
- How much to keep in reserve for in-season moves?
- What is the current cap?
- What will the cap be in 2022?
- How much should Beane restructure?
Let's take the debatable topics one by one.
Current Contracts:
This is where the mess is. The two dominant sites for cap information (OverTheCap and Spotrac) differ from each other. As a result, it is hard to draw a very precise picture of the cap without knowing if one or both are wrong. Ugghhh....
In auditing them both, I found that Spotrac had the with $4 mil less cap space in 2021 than OverTheCap. For 2022 the difference is about $10 mil. I would understand it if the defference was in the recent contracts because there is a race to post the contracts, but It is not just recent contracts where they differ. I am thinking that each site interprets the "likely to be earned" bonuses (treated as a bonus that counts against the cap) and "not likely to be earned" bonuses (treated as future "opportunities" for a cap hit).
Either way, I will use OverTheCap for this post, but I will show results from both sites for the same scenarios. The truth will lie somewhere in between. In general, It think the data will be close enough to paint a rough picture of the current cap.
How much to keep in reserve for in-season moves?
Personally, I don't think this is debatable, but I guess some could debate this. Most (if not all) NFL teams reserve at least $5 mil for this. In-season moves cost cap space. I don't think it would not be smart to go into the season without a reserve. Could a team go into the season with less than $5 mil or no cap space? Of course, but it would hamstring the team significantly.
2021 Cap Before the Tre White Restructure:
Prior to the restructure of Tre White, the cap was tight (depending on what website you were using). As much as I believed that Beane didn't want to do another restructure, he did it. And it appears that it did fix the cap. Only Beane knows how bad the cap was prior to the Tre White restructure. Did he need to do this to fix a situation where they were already over the cap did he do the restructure to fix it for future moves. Spotrac indicated that he needed most of the Tre White money to get below the cap. OverTheCap indicated that he needed some of it to fix the cap and most of it to allow for other moves. Either way, something had to be done. Beane either had to cut players or restructure to get under the Top 51 and have enough room to sign our draft picks or more free agents.
Top 51 (including the 1st and 2nd round draft picks)
Spotrac: -$4,235,187
OverTheCap: -$1,901,144
Final 53 (with a reasonable roster, 7 draft picks making the roster, and $5mil in reserve for in-season moves):
Spotrac: -$11,800,854
OverTheCap: -$8,678,161
The Current 2021 Cap Situation:
Here is what the cap looks like as of today. These numbers are from OverTheCap. I had to guess at Breida's, Obada's, and McKenzie's contracts.
Top 51:
Player |
Camp Roster? |
Camp Salaries |
Top 51 Salary Rank |
Tre'Davious White |
CB |
$6,782,000 |
11 |
Stefon Diggs |
WR |
$13,458,333 |
1 |
Dion Dawkins |
LT |
$11,395,000 |
2 |
Jerry Hughes |
DE |
$9,450,000 |
3 |
Mario Addison |
DE |
$8,200,000 |
4 |
Jordan Poyer |
S |
$7,875,000 |
5 |
Star Lotulelei |
1DT |
$7,600,000 |
7 |
Cole Beasley |
WR |
$7,368,750 |
8 |
Mitch Morse |
OC |
$7,350,000 |
9 |
Josh Allen |
QB |
$6,910,056 |
10 |
A.J. Klein |
OLB |
$6,400,000 |
13 |
Daryl Williams |
RT |
$6,150,000 |
14 |
Vernon Butler |
1DT |
$5,318,750 |
16 |
Micah Hyde |
S |
$6,581,250 |
12 |
Ed Oliver |
3DT |
$5,365,951 |
15 |
Tremaine Edmunds |
ILB |
$4,028,037 |
18 |
Tyler Matakevich |
ILB |
$2,950,000 |
20 |
Taron Johnson |
SCB |
$2,344,517 |
22 |
Cody Ford |
OG |
$2,047,492 |
24 |
A.J. Epenesa |
DE |
$1,335,751 |
29 |
Harrison Phillips |
1DT |
$1,143,760 |
32 |
Reid Ferguson |
LS |
$1,140,000 |
33 |
Andre Smith |
OLB |
$1,130,000 |
34 |
Devin Singletary |
RB |
$1,108,956 |
35 |
Dawson Knox |
TE |
$1,085,545 |
36 |
Zack Moss |
RB |
$1,048,256 |
37 |
Siran Neal |
SCB |
$991,505 |
39 |
Gabriel Davis |
WR |
$954,843 |
41 |
Bryan Cox Jr. |
DE |
$920,000 |
42 |
Jake Kumerow |
WR |
$920,000 |
42 |
Justin Zimmer |
3DT |
$920,000 |
42 |
Jaquan Johnson |
S |
$896,085 |
45 |
Darryl Johnson |
DE |
$874,616 |
47 |
Tommy Sweeney |
TE |
$874,138 |
48 |
Jordan Devey |
OG |
$860,000 |
49 |
Jake Fromm |
QB |
$855,740 |
50 |
Davis Webb |
QB |
$850,001 |
51 |
Ryan Bates |
LT |
$850,000 |
52 |
Duke Williams |
WR |
$780,000 |
58 |
Tyler Bass |
K |
$826,056 |
53 |
Isaiah Hodgins |
WR |
$699,722 |
65 |
Dane Jackson |
CB |
$815,000 |
54 |
Reggie Gilliam |
TE |
$786,666 |
56 |
Tyrel Dodson |
OLB |
$782,000 |
57 |
Trey Adams |
RT |
$663,750 |
68 |
Brandin Bryant |
DE |
$780,000 |
58 |
Tanner Gentry |
WR |
$780,000 |
58 |
Cam Lewis |
CB |
$780,000 |
58 |
Mike Love |
DE |
$780,000 |
58 |
Nate Becker |
TE |
$660,000 |
69 |
Josh Thomas |
S |
$660,000 |
69 |
Christian Wade |
RB |
$660,000 |
69 |
Antonio Williams |
RB |
$660,000 |
69 |
2021 Rd 1 |
CB |
$1,584,001 |
27 |
2021 Rd 2 |
1DT |
$891,046 |
46 |
2021 Rd 3 |
DE |
$799,523 |
55 |
2021 Rd 5a |
WR |
$710,279 |
63 |
2021 Rd 5b |
RT |
$703,597 |
64 |
2021 Rd 6 |
TE |
$684,882 |
66 |
2021 Rd 7 |
OG |
$672,473 |
67 |
Jon Feliciano |
OG |
$3,281,250 |
19 |
Matt Milano |
OLB |
$7,812,500 |
6 |
Levi Wallace |
CB |
$1,687,500 |
25 |
Taiwan Jones |
RB |
$1,684,375 |
26 |
Ike Boettger |
OG |
$2,133,000 |
23 |
Isaiah McKenzie |
WR |
$1,150,000 |
30 |
Jacob Hollister |
TE |
$987,500 |
40 |
Mitchell Trubisky |
QB |
$2,500,000 |
21 |
Matt Haack |
P |
$1,575,000 |
28 |
Emmanuel Sanders |
WR |
$4,625,000 |
17 |
Efi Obada |
DE |
$1,000,000 |
38 |
Matt Breida |
RB |
$1,150,000 |
30 |
This leaves us with $4,857,911 Top 51 Salary Cap Space. That is pretty good. We can make some more low-level moves with that space.
Final 53 Man Roster Position Counts:
This is an important step. We need to make sure that the roster is roughly balanced with respect to position counts.
Position |
Final Roster Count |
1DT |
3 |
3DT |
2 |
CB |
4 |
DE |
5 |
ILB |
2 |
K |
1 |
LS |
1 |
LT |
2 |
OC |
1 |
OG |
4 |
OLB |
3 |
P |
1 |
QB |
2 |
RB |
4 |
RT |
2 |
S |
4 |
SCB |
2 |
TE |
4 |
WR |
6 |
Total |
53 |
Estimated Final 53 Roster and Cap
Here is an example roster.
Player |
53-man Roster? |
53-man Salaries |
53-man Dead Cap |
Tre'Davious White |
CB |
$6,782,000 |
|
Stefon Diggs |
WR |
$13,458,333 |
|
Dion Dawkins |
LT |
$11,395,000 |
|
Jerry Hughes |
DE |
$9,450,000 |
|
Mario Addison |
DE |
$8,200,000 |
|
Jordan Poyer |
S |
$7,875,000 |
|
Star Lotulelei |
1DT |
$7,600,000 |
|
Cole Beasley |
WR |
$7,368,750 |
|
Mitch Morse |
OC |
$7,350,000 |
|
Josh Allen |
QB |
$6,910,056 |
|
A.J. Klein |
OLB |
$6,400,000 |
|
Daryl Williams |
RT |
$6,150,000 |
|
Vernon Butler |
1DT |
$5,318,750 |
|
Micah Hyde |
S |
$6,581,250 |
|
Ed Oliver |
3DT |
$5,365,951 |
|
Tremaine Edmunds |
ILB |
$4,028,037 |
|
Tyler Matakevich |
ILB |
$2,950,000 |
|
Taron Johnson |
SCB |
$2,344,517 |
|
Cody Ford |
OG |
$2,047,492 |
|
A.J. Epenesa |
DE |
$1,335,751 |
|
Harrison Phillips |
1DT |
$1,143,760 |
|
Reid Ferguson |
LS |
$1,140,000 |
|
Andre Smith |
OLB |
$1,130,000 |
|
Devin Singletary |
RB |
$1,108,956 |
|
Dawson Knox |
TE |
$1,085,545 |
|
Zack Moss |
RB |
$1,048,256 |
|
Siran Neal |
SCB |
$991,505 |
|
Gabriel Davis |
WR |
$954,843 |
|
Bryan Cox Jr. |
|
$0 |
|
Jake Kumerow |
|
$0 |
|
Justin Zimmer |
3DT |
$920,000 |
|
Jaquan Johnson |
S |
$896,085 |
|
Darryl Johnson |
|
$24,616 |
|
Tommy Sweeney |
|
$24,138 |
|
Jordan Devey |
|
$10,000 |
|
Jake Fromm |
|
$75,740 |
|
Davis Webb |
|
$0 |
|
Ryan Bates |
LT |
$850,000 |
|
Duke Williams |
|
$0 |
|
Tyler Bass |
K |
$826,056 |
|
Isaiah Hodgins |
WR |
$699,722 |
|
Dane Jackson |
CB |
$815,000 |
|
Reggie Gilliam |
|
$6,666 |
|
Tyrel Dodson |
|
$2,000 |
|
Trey Adams |
|
$3,750 |
|
Brandin Bryant |
|
$0 |
|
Tanner Gentry |
|
$0 |
|
Cam Lewis |
|
$0 |
|
Mike Love |
|
$0 |
|
Nate Becker |
|
$0 |
|
Josh Thomas |
S |
$660,000 |
|
Christian Wade |
|
$0 |
|
Antonio Williams |
|
$0 |
|
2021 Rd 1 |
CB |
$1,584,001 |
|
2021 Rd 2 |
1DT |
$891,046 |
|
2021 Rd 3 |
DE |
$799,523 |
|
2021 Rd 5a |
WR |
$710,279 |
|
2021 Rd 5b |
RT |
$703,597 |
|
2021 Rd 6 |
TE |
$684,882 |
|
2021 Rd 7 |
OG |
$672,473 |
|
Jon Feliciano |
OG |
$3,281,250 |
|
Matt Milano |
OLB |
$7,812,500 |
|
Levi Wallace |
CB |
$1,687,500 |
|
Taiwan Jones |
RB |
$1,684,375 |
|
Ike Boettger |
OG |
$2,133,000 |
|
Isaiah McKenzie |
WR |
$1,150,000 |
|
Jacob Hollister |
TE |
$987,500 |
|
Mitchell Trubisky |
QB |
$2,500,000 |
|
Matt Haack |
P |
$1,575,000 |
|
Emmanuel Sanders |
WR |
$4,625,000 |
|
Efi Obada |
|
||
Matt Breida |
RB |
$1,150,000 |
Cap Summary:
Cap Creators: |
|
Available Salary Cap: |
$188,376,959 |
Cap Consumers: |
|
Current Roster Contracts After FA: |
$143,180,615 |
Added Rookie Contracts: |
$6,045,801 |
Added Re-signed FA Contracts: |
$17,748,625 |
Added New FA Contracts: |
$10,837,500 |
Total Contracts After FA: |
$177,812,541 |
|
|
Dead cap from Cuts/Trades: |
$146,910 |
Carried Over Dead Cap: |
$5,973,544 |
Total Cap Consumers After FA: |
$183,932,995 |
|
|
Net Remaining Cap: |
|
Net Remaining Salary Cap After Final 53: |
$4,443,964 |
Reserve for in-season moves: |
$5,000,000 |
Net Remaining Cap Above Reserve After Final 53: |
-$556,036 |
Top 51 Salary Cap Space |
$4,857,911 |
You can see that the Tre White restructure really helped. We needed that restructure in order to make these latest moves, stay under the Top 51, sign our draft picks, and be able to make a reasonable team at the final 53 cuts. But you can see, the final 53 cuts are going to be very tight.
2022 Cap Situation:
This is where it gets more interesting. This is the year that we will likely sign Allen and potentially sign Edmunds to longer term contracts.
Assumptions:
For the purposes of this scenario, I will assume that ...
- Allen will get a $40 million contract (similar to Dak's - I doubt QB contracts will go down, but this is a start)
- Edmunds will get a $12 mil contract (ballpark - may be a bit low, but I need to start somewhere)
- All expired contracts will be replaced with draft picks and vet minimum players.This is hopefully not true, but this should give us a baseline to work with.
- 5 draft picks make the final 53
- The team reserves $5 mil for in-season moves
- The cap space in 2022 is $225.OverTheCap says that this is the best-case scenario.
Final 53 Man Roster Position Counts:
Again, this is an important step. We need to make sure that the roster is roughly balanced with respect to position counts.
Position |
Final Roster Count |
1DT |
3 |
3DT |
2 |
CB |
4 |
DE |
5 |
ILB |
2 |
K |
1 |
LS |
1 |
LT |
2 |
OC |
1 |
OG |
4 |
OLB |
3 |
P |
1 |
QB |
2 |
RB |
4 |
RT |
2 |
S |
4 |
SCB |
2 |
TE |
3 |
WR |
7 |
Total |
53 |
Estimated Final 53 Roster and Cap
Here is an example roster.
Player |
53-man Roster? |
53-man Salaries |
53-man Dead Cap |
Tre'Davious White |
CB |
$16,492,000 |
|
Dion Dawkins |
LT |
$12,725,000 |
|
Stefon Diggs |
WR |
$12,525,000 |
|
Mitch Morse |
OC |
$11,250,000 |
|
Matt Milano |
OLB |
$10,000,000 |
|
Micah Hyde |
S |
$9,700,000 |
|
Star Lotulelei |
1DT |
$9,350,000 |
|
Daryl Williams |
RT |
$8,925,000 |
|
Jordan Poyer |
S |
$7,700,000 |
|
Cole Beasley |
WR |
$7,600,000 |
|
Ed Oliver |
3DT |
$6,260,276 |
|
A.J. Klein |
OLB |
$5,600,000 |
|
Jon Feliciano |
OG |
$5,250,000 |
|
Tyler Matakevich |
ILB |
$3,250,000 |
|
Cody Ford |
OG |
$2,388,741 |
|
Matt Haack |
P |
$1,900,000 |
|
A.J. Epenesa |
DE |
$1,602,901 |
|
2021 Rd 1 |
CB |
$1,584,001 |
|
Andre Smith |
OLB |
$1,257,500 |
|
Zack Moss |
RB |
$1,237,355 |
|
Devin Singletary |
RB |
$1,223,956 |
|
Dawson Knox |
TE |
$1,200,545 |
|
Gabriel Davis |
WR |
$1,069,843 |
|
Jaquan Johnson |
S |
$1,011,085 |
|
Tommy Sweeney |
TE |
$989,138 |
|
Jake Fromm |
QB |
$970,740 |
|
Davis Webb |
|
$0 |
|
Tyler Bass |
K |
$941,056 |
|
Isaiah Hodgins |
WR |
$934,722 |
|
Reggie Gilliam |
|
$6,668 |
|
Duke Williams |
|
$0 |
|
Dane Jackson |
CB |
$895,000 |
|
Brandin Bryant |
|
$0 |
|
Tanner Gentry |
|
$0 |
|
Mike Love |
|
$0 |
|
2021 Rd 2 |
1DT |
$891,046 |
|
Trey Adams |
|
$3,750 |
|
Nate Becker |
|
$0 |
|
Josh Thomas |
|
$0 |
|
Christian Wade |
|
$0 |
|
Antonio Williams |
RB |
$825,000 |
|
2021 Rd 3 |
DE |
$799,523 |
|
2021 Rd 5a |
DE |
$710,279 |
|
2021 Rd 5b |
RT |
$703,597 |
|
2021 Rd 6 |
WR |
$684,882 |
|
2021 Rd 7 |
OG |
$672,473 |
|
Darryl Johnson |
|
$24,616 |
|
2022 Rd 1 |
S |
$1,584,001 |
|
2022 Rd 2 |
SCB |
$891,046 |
|
2022 Rd 3 |
WR |
$799,523 |
|
2022 Rd 5a |
TE |
$710,279 |
|
2022 Rd 5b |
1DT |
$703,597 |
|
2022 Rd 6 |
RB |
$684,882 |
|
2022 Rd 7 |
|
||
Isaiah McKenzie |
WR |
$1,000,000 |
|
Efi Obada |
DE |
$1,000,000 |
|
Josh Allen |
QB |
$40,000,000 |
|
Tremaine Edmunds |
ILB |
$12,000,000 |
|
Reid Ferguson |
LS |
$1,140,000 |
|
vet min 1 |
CB |
$890,000 |
|
vet min 2 |
3DT |
$890,000 |
|
vet min 3 |
DE |
$890,000 |
|
vet min 4 |
LT |
$890,000 |
|
vet min 5 |
OG |
$890,000 |
|
vet min 6 |
SCB |
$890,000 |
Cap Summary:
Cap Creators: |
|
Available Salary Cap: |
$225,000,000 |
Cap Consumers: |
|
Current Roster Contracts After FA: |
$151,120,659 |
Added Rookie Contracts: |
$5,373,328 |
Added Re-signed FA Contracts: |
$60,480,000 |
Added New FA Contracts: |
$0 |
Total Contracts After FA: |
$216,973,987 |
|
|
Dead cap from Cuts/Trades: |
$2,035,034 |
Carried Over Dead Cap: |
$5,973,544 |
Total Cap Consumers After FA: |
$224,982,565 |
|
|
Net Remaining Cap: |
|
Net Remaining Salary Cap After Final 53: |
$17,435 |
Reserve for in-season moves: |
$5,000,000 |
Net Remaining Cap Above Reserve After Final 53: |
-$4,982,565 |
Top 51 Salary Cap Space |
$81,470 |
So, with these assumptions (only vet minimum FAs, etc...) we are $5 mil over the cap for 2022. This is not great, but this is not horrible. There are some players that could be cut or we could go down the restructure path again.
How much should Beane restructure?
This is the $1,000,000 question... literally. The answer to this comes down to personal preference and risk mitigation. Some will say that Beane should just perpetually restructure contracts so that the team can sign as many players as possible. That's fine. People have opinions, but the question is "what would Beane do?".
Personally, I think the latest restructure gave Beane hives and he hated it all the way to signing his name on the document. Will he do more restructuring? I personally don't think so, but I can see two scenarios that would force him to restructure...
- If he believes that he has to in order to fill out a 91 player roster for camp.I think he would want to keep the players that he has going into camp in order to create the most competitive situation for the team.If he is signing just low-level FAs, then he may not have to do any more restructuring.He has $4 mil left (assuming these numbers are fairly correct) under the Top 51. It is reasonable to think he could fill out the camp roster with only $4 mil under the Top 51 as long as he continues to find value FAs like Breida and Obada.
- If a truly difference-maker player is available to him in a trade or free agency and that player has a bigger price tag.
As easy as it is to restructure, it is not without some long-term costs.
- Pushes more cap down the road.As you can see, the cap is already not great in 2022.Pushing more of it to future years does not help the situation.We may have to cut some starters or restructure even more salaries.
- Restructuring sounds great, but by having so much cap pushed off to future years makes for some risky situations.All it will take is a concussion or two with one of these restructured players to put us into a bad spot.Tre White is a super-smart person.He already held himself out of the Titans game last year due to COVID returns, if he ever got a concussion and decided to hang up the cleats it would really wreak havoc on the Bill's dead cap.Star has a big dead cap hit in 2021 ($7.1 mil) and 2022 ($5.2 mil).He is no spring chicken.
- If one (or more) of these guys tears an ACL and is out a year, then we have very little flexibility to replace them.This sport is a violent sport.
Summary:
The Tre White restructure was needed in order to avoid cutting players prior to the draft and staying under the Top 51. I don't think Beane wanted to do this, but he felt like he needed to. The current 2022 cap situation is already not great. It looks like the TV deals may not impact the cap significantly until 2024.
Will Beane continue to restructure? I don't know, but I do believe that he will think very hard before doing more. I know he doesn't take these decisions lightly. If he does, then he will be very calculated and weight the positives against the negatives. While he has done some wizardly feats as the Bills' Gm, any future moves will not be as simple as a casual wave of his magical GM wand.
I hope this clears up what I was trying to show before. I know that the Spotrac and OverTheCap data is not perfect, but it is the best that we have and I think it is close enough to show where we are roughly against the cap. I am not trying to be divisive with this. I am just trying to show a reasonable picture of the reality of the situation. we can all prognosticate on how we would spend other people's money, but in the end Beane has to make hard choices to balance the short-term and long-term implications.
What do you see in the data?