FanPost

Current and Future State of the Cap

I know that I have been beating the salary cap drum lately in comments (much to the dismay of many of you... ). But I am going to beat it one more time ... hopefully to clear things up. I know that there has been a lot of back and forth on this already, but hear me out. I think this information is interesting and useful.

Facts:

  • Beane can restructure some of the bigger contracts and create lots of cap space for 2021
  • Teams have to stay under the Top 51 rule during the offseason
  • Signing the 1st and 2nd round 2021 draft picks will impact the current Top 51 status (because they will likely be greater than the 50thand 51stsalaries on the roster).As a result, the Top 51 status today will be off by about $800K
  • Once a team makes final cuts in August all 53 players must fit under the cap. The final 53 is different from the Top 51 in that when you can't just cut off the top 53 salaries and be done. In order to get a true representation where you are you have to...
    • Make sure that your final 53 has a reasonable number of players at each position (e.g. you don't want 7 TEs, 5 QBs, etc...
    • Consider how much money should be reserved for in-season moves. It takes cap space to move people on and off the roster during the season (e.g. promotes and demotes to the practice squad, signing/cutting/trading players due to injuries, etc...).
    • You need to consider dead cap that is created by cutting players

Debatable Topics:

  • What are the current contracts?
  • How much to keep in reserve for in-season moves?
  • What is the current cap?
  • What will the cap be in 2022?
  • How much should Beane restructure?

Let's take the debatable topics one by one.

Current Contracts:

This is where the mess is. The two dominant sites for cap information (OverTheCap and Spotrac) differ from each other. As a result, it is hard to draw a very precise picture of the cap without knowing if one or both are wrong. Ugghhh....

In auditing them both, I found that Spotrac had the with $4 mil less cap space in 2021 than OverTheCap. For 2022 the difference is about $10 mil. I would understand it if the defference was in the recent contracts because there is a race to post the contracts, but It is not just recent contracts where they differ. I am thinking that each site interprets the "likely to be earned" bonuses (treated as a bonus that counts against the cap) and "not likely to be earned" bonuses (treated as future "opportunities" for a cap hit).

Either way, I will use OverTheCap for this post, but I will show results from both sites for the same scenarios. The truth will lie somewhere in between. In general, It think the data will be close enough to paint a rough picture of the current cap.

How much to keep in reserve for in-season moves?

Personally, I don't think this is debatable, but I guess some could debate this. Most (if not all) NFL teams reserve at least $5 mil for this. In-season moves cost cap space. I don't think it would not be smart to go into the season without a reserve. Could a team go into the season with less than $5 mil or no cap space? Of course, but it would hamstring the team significantly.

2021 Cap Before the Tre White Restructure:

Prior to the restructure of Tre White, the cap was tight (depending on what website you were using). As much as I believed that Beane didn't want to do another restructure, he did it. And it appears that it did fix the cap. Only Beane knows how bad the cap was prior to the Tre White restructure. Did he need to do this to fix a situation where they were already over the cap did he do the restructure to fix it for future moves. Spotrac indicated that he needed most of the Tre White money to get below the cap. OverTheCap indicated that he needed some of it to fix the cap and most of it to allow for other moves. Either way, something had to be done. Beane either had to cut players or restructure to get under the Top 51 and have enough room to sign our draft picks or more free agents.

Top 51 (including the 1st and 2nd round draft picks)

Spotrac: -$4,235,187

OverTheCap: -$1,901,144

Final 53 (with a reasonable roster, 7 draft picks making the roster, and $5mil in reserve for in-season moves):

Spotrac: -$11,800,854

OverTheCap: -$8,678,161

The Current 2021 Cap Situation:

Here is what the cap looks like as of today. These numbers are from OverTheCap. I had to guess at Breida's, Obada's, and McKenzie's contracts.

Top 51:

Player

Camp Roster?

Camp Salaries

Top 51 Salary Rank

Tre'Davious White

CB

$6,782,000

11

Stefon Diggs

WR

$13,458,333

1

Dion Dawkins

LT

$11,395,000

2

Jerry Hughes

DE

$9,450,000

3

Mario Addison

DE

$8,200,000

4

Jordan Poyer

S

$7,875,000

5

Star Lotulelei

1DT

$7,600,000

7

Cole Beasley

WR

$7,368,750

8

Mitch Morse

OC

$7,350,000

9

Josh Allen

QB

$6,910,056

10

A.J. Klein

OLB

$6,400,000

13

Daryl Williams

RT

$6,150,000

14

Vernon Butler

1DT

$5,318,750

16

Micah Hyde

S

$6,581,250

12

Ed Oliver

3DT

$5,365,951

15

Tremaine Edmunds

ILB

$4,028,037

18

Tyler Matakevich

ILB

$2,950,000

20

Taron Johnson

SCB

$2,344,517

22

Cody Ford

OG

$2,047,492

24

A.J. Epenesa

DE

$1,335,751

29

Harrison Phillips

1DT

$1,143,760

32

Reid Ferguson

LS

$1,140,000

33

Andre Smith

OLB

$1,130,000

34

Devin Singletary

RB

$1,108,956

35

Dawson Knox

TE

$1,085,545

36

Zack Moss

RB

$1,048,256

37

Siran Neal

SCB

$991,505

39

Gabriel Davis

WR

$954,843

41

Bryan Cox Jr.

DE

$920,000

42

Jake Kumerow

WR

$920,000

42

Justin Zimmer

3DT

$920,000

42

Jaquan Johnson

S

$896,085

45

Darryl Johnson

DE

$874,616

47

Tommy Sweeney

TE

$874,138

48

Jordan Devey

OG

$860,000

49

Jake Fromm

QB

$855,740

50

Davis Webb

QB

$850,001

51

Ryan Bates

LT

$850,000

52

Duke Williams

WR

$780,000

58

Tyler Bass

K

$826,056

53

Isaiah Hodgins

WR

$699,722

65

Dane Jackson

CB

$815,000

54

Reggie Gilliam

TE

$786,666

56

Tyrel Dodson

OLB

$782,000

57

Trey Adams

RT

$663,750

68

Brandin Bryant

DE

$780,000

58

Tanner Gentry

WR

$780,000

58

Cam Lewis

CB

$780,000

58

Mike Love

DE

$780,000

58

Nate Becker

TE

$660,000

69

Josh Thomas

S

$660,000

69

Christian Wade

RB

$660,000

69

Antonio Williams

RB

$660,000

69

2021 Rd 1

CB

$1,584,001

27

2021 Rd 2

1DT

$891,046

46

2021 Rd 3

DE

$799,523

55

2021 Rd 5a

WR

$710,279

63

2021 Rd 5b

RT

$703,597

64

2021 Rd 6

TE

$684,882

66

2021 Rd 7

OG

$672,473

67

Jon Feliciano

OG

$3,281,250

19

Matt Milano

OLB

$7,812,500

6

Levi Wallace

CB

$1,687,500

25

Taiwan Jones

RB

$1,684,375

26

Ike Boettger

OG

$2,133,000

23

Isaiah McKenzie

WR

$1,150,000

30

Jacob Hollister

TE

$987,500

40

Mitchell Trubisky

QB

$2,500,000

21

Matt Haack

P

$1,575,000

28

Emmanuel Sanders

WR

$4,625,000

17

Efi Obada

DE

$1,000,000

38

Matt Breida

RB

$1,150,000

30

This leaves us with $4,857,911 Top 51 Salary Cap Space. That is pretty good. We can make some more low-level moves with that space.

Final 53 Man Roster Position Counts:

This is an important step. We need to make sure that the roster is roughly balanced with respect to position counts.

Position

Final Roster Count

1DT

3

3DT

2

CB

4

DE

5

ILB

2

K

1

LS

1

LT

2

OC

1

OG

4

OLB

3

P

1

QB

2

RB

4

RT

2

S

4

SCB

2

TE

4

WR

6

Total

53

Estimated Final 53 Roster and Cap

Here is an example roster.

Player

53-man Roster?

53-man Salaries

53-man Dead Cap

Tre'Davious White

CB

$6,782,000

Stefon Diggs

WR

$13,458,333

Dion Dawkins

LT

$11,395,000

Jerry Hughes

DE

$9,450,000

Mario Addison

DE

$8,200,000

Jordan Poyer

S

$7,875,000

Star Lotulelei

1DT

$7,600,000

Cole Beasley

WR

$7,368,750

Mitch Morse

OC

$7,350,000

Josh Allen

QB

$6,910,056

A.J. Klein

OLB

$6,400,000

Daryl Williams

RT

$6,150,000

Vernon Butler

1DT

$5,318,750

Micah Hyde

S

$6,581,250

Ed Oliver

3DT

$5,365,951

Tremaine Edmunds

ILB

$4,028,037

Tyler Matakevich

ILB

$2,950,000

Taron Johnson

SCB

$2,344,517

Cody Ford

OG

$2,047,492

A.J. Epenesa

DE

$1,335,751

Harrison Phillips

1DT

$1,143,760

Reid Ferguson

LS

$1,140,000

Andre Smith

OLB

$1,130,000

Devin Singletary

RB

$1,108,956

Dawson Knox

TE

$1,085,545

Zack Moss

RB

$1,048,256

Siran Neal

SCB

$991,505

Gabriel Davis

WR

$954,843

Bryan Cox Jr.

$0

Jake Kumerow

$0

Justin Zimmer

3DT

$920,000

Jaquan Johnson

S

$896,085

Darryl Johnson

$24,616

Tommy Sweeney

$24,138

Jordan Devey

$10,000

Jake Fromm

$75,740

Davis Webb

$0

Ryan Bates

LT

$850,000

Duke Williams

$0

Tyler Bass

K

$826,056

Isaiah Hodgins

WR

$699,722

Dane Jackson

CB

$815,000

Reggie Gilliam

$6,666

Tyrel Dodson

$2,000

Trey Adams

$3,750

Brandin Bryant

$0

Tanner Gentry

$0

Cam Lewis

$0

Mike Love

$0

Nate Becker

$0

Josh Thomas

S

$660,000

Christian Wade

$0

Antonio Williams

$0

2021 Rd 1

CB

$1,584,001

2021 Rd 2

1DT

$891,046

2021 Rd 3

DE

$799,523

2021 Rd 5a

WR

$710,279

2021 Rd 5b

RT

$703,597

2021 Rd 6

TE

$684,882

2021 Rd 7

OG

$672,473

Jon Feliciano

OG

$3,281,250

Matt Milano

OLB

$7,812,500

Levi Wallace

CB

$1,687,500

Taiwan Jones

RB

$1,684,375

Ike Boettger

OG

$2,133,000

Isaiah McKenzie

WR

$1,150,000

Jacob Hollister

TE

$987,500

Mitchell Trubisky

QB

$2,500,000

Matt Haack

P

$1,575,000

Emmanuel Sanders

WR

$4,625,000

Efi Obada

Matt Breida

RB

$1,150,000

Cap Summary:

Cap Creators:

Available Salary Cap:

$188,376,959

Cap Consumers:

Current Roster Contracts After FA:

$143,180,615

Added Rookie Contracts:

$6,045,801

Added Re-signed FA Contracts:

$17,748,625

Added New FA Contracts:

$10,837,500

Total Contracts After FA:

$177,812,541

Dead cap from Cuts/Trades:

$146,910

Carried Over Dead Cap:

$5,973,544

Total Cap Consumers After FA:

$183,932,995

Net Remaining Cap:

Net Remaining Salary Cap After Final 53:

$4,443,964

Reserve for in-season moves:

$5,000,000

Net Remaining Cap Above Reserve After Final 53:

-$556,036

Top 51 Salary Cap Space

$4,857,911

You can see that the Tre White restructure really helped. We needed that restructure in order to make these latest moves, stay under the Top 51, sign our draft picks, and be able to make a reasonable team at the final 53 cuts. But you can see, the final 53 cuts are going to be very tight.

2022 Cap Situation:

This is where it gets more interesting. This is the year that we will likely sign Allen and potentially sign Edmunds to longer term contracts.

Assumptions:

For the purposes of this scenario, I will assume that ...

  • Allen will get a $40 million contract (similar to Dak's -€” I doubt QB contracts will go down, but this is a start)
  • Edmunds will get a $12 mil contract (ballpark -€” may be a bit low, but I need to start somewhere)
  • All expired contracts will be replaced with draft picks and vet minimum players.This is hopefully not true, but this should give us a baseline to work with.
  • 5 draft picks make the final 53
  • The team reserves $5 mil for in-season moves
  • The cap space in 2022 is $225.OverTheCap says that this is the best-case scenario.

Final 53 Man Roster Position Counts:

Again, this is an important step. We need to make sure that the roster is roughly balanced with respect to position counts.

Position

Final Roster Count

1DT

3

3DT

2

CB

4

DE

5

ILB

2

K

1

LS

1

LT

2

OC

1

OG

4

OLB

3

P

1

QB

2

RB

4

RT

2

S

4

SCB

2

TE

3

WR

7

Total

53

Estimated Final 53 Roster and Cap

Here is an example roster.

Player

53-man Roster?

53-man Salaries

53-man Dead Cap

Tre'Davious White

CB

$16,492,000

Dion Dawkins

LT

$12,725,000

Stefon Diggs

WR

$12,525,000

Mitch Morse

OC

$11,250,000

Matt Milano

OLB

$10,000,000

Micah Hyde

S

$9,700,000

Star Lotulelei

1DT

$9,350,000

Daryl Williams

RT

$8,925,000

Jordan Poyer

S

$7,700,000

Cole Beasley

WR

$7,600,000

Ed Oliver

3DT

$6,260,276

A.J. Klein

OLB

$5,600,000

Jon Feliciano

OG

$5,250,000

Tyler Matakevich

ILB

$3,250,000

Cody Ford

OG

$2,388,741

Matt Haack

P

$1,900,000

A.J. Epenesa

DE

$1,602,901

2021 Rd 1

CB

$1,584,001

Andre Smith

OLB

$1,257,500

Zack Moss

RB

$1,237,355

Devin Singletary

RB

$1,223,956

Dawson Knox

TE

$1,200,545

Gabriel Davis

WR

$1,069,843

Jaquan Johnson

S

$1,011,085

Tommy Sweeney

TE

$989,138

Jake Fromm

QB

$970,740

Davis Webb

$0

Tyler Bass

K

$941,056

Isaiah Hodgins

WR

$934,722

Reggie Gilliam

$6,668

Duke Williams

$0

Dane Jackson

CB

$895,000

Brandin Bryant

$0

Tanner Gentry

$0

Mike Love

$0

2021 Rd 2

1DT

$891,046

Trey Adams

$3,750

Nate Becker

$0

Josh Thomas

$0

Christian Wade

$0

Antonio Williams

RB

$825,000

2021 Rd 3

DE

$799,523

2021 Rd 5a

DE

$710,279

2021 Rd 5b

RT

$703,597

2021 Rd 6

WR

$684,882

2021 Rd 7

OG

$672,473

Darryl Johnson

$24,616

2022 Rd 1

S

$1,584,001

2022 Rd 2

SCB

$891,046

2022 Rd 3

WR

$799,523

2022 Rd 5a

TE

$710,279

2022 Rd 5b

1DT

$703,597

2022 Rd 6

RB

$684,882

2022 Rd 7

Isaiah McKenzie

WR

$1,000,000

Efi Obada

DE

$1,000,000

Josh Allen

QB

$40,000,000

Tremaine Edmunds

ILB

$12,000,000

Reid Ferguson

LS

$1,140,000

vet min 1

CB

$890,000

vet min 2

3DT

$890,000

vet min 3

DE

$890,000

vet min 4

LT

$890,000

vet min 5

OG

$890,000

vet min 6

SCB

$890,000

Cap Summary:

Cap Creators:

Available Salary Cap:

$225,000,000

Cap Consumers:

Current Roster Contracts After FA:

$151,120,659

Added Rookie Contracts:

$5,373,328

Added Re-signed FA Contracts:

$60,480,000

Added New FA Contracts:

$0

Total Contracts After FA:

$216,973,987

Dead cap from Cuts/Trades:

$2,035,034

Carried Over Dead Cap:

$5,973,544

Total Cap Consumers After FA:

$224,982,565

Net Remaining Cap:

Net Remaining Salary Cap After Final 53:

$17,435

Reserve for in-season moves:

$5,000,000

Net Remaining Cap Above Reserve After Final 53:

-$4,982,565

Top 51 Salary Cap Space

$81,470

So, with these assumptions (only vet minimum FAs, etc...) we are $5 mil over the cap for 2022. This is not great, but this is not horrible. There are some players that could be cut or we could go down the restructure path again.

How much should Beane restructure?

This is the $1,000,000 question... literally. The answer to this comes down to personal preference and risk mitigation. Some will say that Beane should just perpetually restructure contracts so that the team can sign as many players as possible. That's fine. People have opinions, but the question is "what would Beane do?".

Personally, I think the latest restructure gave Beane hives and he hated it all the way to signing his name on the document. Will he do more restructuring? I personally don't think so, but I can see two scenarios that would force him to restructure...

  • If he believes that he has to in order to fill out a 91 player roster for camp.I think he would want to keep the players that he has going into camp in order to create the most competitive situation for the team.If he is signing just low-level FAs, then he may not have to do any more restructuring.He has $4 mil left (assuming these numbers are fairly correct) under the Top 51. It is reasonable to think he could fill out the camp roster with only $4 mil under the Top 51 as long as he continues to find value FAs like Breida and Obada.
  • If a truly difference-maker player is available to him in a trade or free agency and that player has a bigger price tag.

As easy as it is to restructure, it is not without some long-term costs.

  • Pushes more cap down the road.As you can see, the cap is already not great in 2022.Pushing more of it to future years does not help the situation.We may have to cut some starters or restructure even more salaries.
  • Restructuring sounds great, but by having so much cap pushed off to future years makes for some risky situations.All it will take is a concussion or two with one of these restructured players to put us into a bad spot.Tre White is a super-smart person.He already held himself out of the Titans game last year due to COVID returns, if he ever got a concussion and decided to hang up the cleats it would really wreak havoc on the Bill's dead cap.Star has a big dead cap hit in 2021 ($7.1 mil) and 2022 ($5.2 mil).He is no spring chicken.
  • If one (or more) of these guys tears an ACL and is out a year, then we have very little flexibility to replace them.This sport is a violent sport.

Summary:

The Tre White restructure was needed in order to avoid cutting players prior to the draft and staying under the Top 51. I don't think Beane wanted to do this, but he felt like he needed to. The current 2022 cap situation is already not great. It looks like the TV deals may not impact the cap significantly until 2024.

Will Beane continue to restructure? I don't know, but I do believe that he will think very hard before doing more. I know he doesn't take these decisions lightly. If he does, then he will be very calculated and weight the positives against the negatives. While he has done some wizardly feats as the Bills' Gm, any future moves will not be as simple as a casual wave of his magical GM wand.

I hope this clears up what I was trying to show before. I know that the Spotrac and OverTheCap data is not perfect, but it is the best that we have and I think it is close enough to show where we are roughly against the cap. I am not trying to be divisive with this. I am just trying to show a reasonable picture of the reality of the situation. we can all prognosticate on how we would spend other people's money, but in the end Beane has to make hard choices to balance the short-term and long-term implications.

What do you see in the data?

Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.