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Draft Strategy Options

Every year I usually put together a bunch of draft strategy options to try and predict what direction the Bills could go. As much as I love sifting through the draft prospects and their fit with the Bills, the strategy is just as important. As Hal recently spelled out the draft strategy boils down to Supply, Demand, and Value/Fit. As simple as that sounds, every team has a different view of all of those things. There is no one universal truth on Value. That is what makes it so fascinating and so dynamic. Beane has to be prepared with several strategies or, at the very least, one strategy that is incredibly flexible. You can't hang your hat on just one player or just one path of prospects. You have to be able to adjust based on how the draft falls to you.

This year the options are almost limitless given the holes that Beane filled this offseason (even if most of the holes were filled by returning vets). It is a good position to be in. As a result, I thought it would be an interesting exercise to lay out some of the strategies that Beane could use in this year's draft (plus some "just for fun" strategies). For each strategy I will show some example drafts but the players are just examples of players that could be taken with those picks. While I will elaborate on some of my favorite players, the focus is more on the strategy not the players.

Even though I just declared that there is no universal truth on the Value of prospects. I need something to go by to put some reality around the picks of these strategies. So, in order to even out the bumps of the wildly different draftnik big boards, I will use the Combined Average Rankings that I posted recently (https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2021/4/8/22374472/average-rankings-for-draft-prospects?_ga=2.90247900.713686572.1618157726-551707090.1584535299). I adjusted the rankings slightly due to some of the media outlets tweaking their rankings recently. If you remember, I have two columns that I will use to determine players that are "likely to be available" (players ranked up to 2 picks ahead of where the Bills pick) or "optimistically available" (players ranked up to 9 picks ahead of where the Bills pick). Also note that some of these boards were created before pro days, so some of the players that surprised/disappointed at their pro days may actually fall higher or lower, respectively.

Assumptions:

  • No trades
  • All mocks will stay within either the "likely Available" column unless otherwise denoted

On with the strategies....

Strategy #1: Win Now

I know this will be a favorite of many of you. This option will focus on short term needs and players that are pro ready. We all disagree on the short-term needs, but for the sake of this strategy I am going with DL and CB2 as the top short-term needs

Rd 1: Greg Newsome III, CB, Northwestern - Bills have a short-term need at CB2 to get someone who can play zone and man with speed. The impact would be immediate. Newsome plays with great speed and he is a scrappy player. Loves to help with run support. McD-kind-of-guy.

Rd 2: Carlos Basham Jr, 4-3 DE, Wake Forest - Basham ticks two short-term boxes. The Bills need to improve their pass rush to take the next step and Basham is one of the most complete pro-ready prospects at 4-3 DE. He can win with power, speed, and technique. He took on many double teams and he played all over the DL for the Decons. I personally have him rated as a round 1 talent, but the average drafnik big boards have him falling to our 2nd pick. Thank you very much!

Rd 3: Khyiris Tonga, 1-Tech/3-Tech DT, BYU - Khyiris is a big man (322lbs) with some juice. He is very good at shedding blocks to create opportunities for himself. And this is a position of high-need. Star is past his prime and we don't have another pure 1-Tech on the team. The good news is that outside of RB, 1-Tech DT is probably the easiest position to come in and contribute in year 1. It is not a complicated position to play. It is mainly a physical position.

Rd 5a: Cornell Powell, WR/KR, Clemson - The Bills lost their Pro Bowl punt/kick returner this offseason. Cornell is a Senior with some Kick return experience over 4 years. I like him as a fit in the receiver room too. He has good speed and can play inside and outside. He also is the best blocker that I have seen this year. He really enjoys blocking. Very Hines Ward-esque.

Rd 5b: Shaka Toney, Edge, Penn State - This is a luxury pick in the "win now" mode. He is a pass rush specialist only, so he is not a complete DE. However, if we want to win now, we don't care that he is complete. We will carry him on the roster for pass rush downs only. He has rare athleticism for a pick this late in the draft. And he has the tools to make an impact immediately on pass downs.

Rd 6: Javian Hawkins, RB, Louisville - RB is the easiest position to come into the league and have an impact, so we take a flier on a speedy shifty RB.

Rd 7: Pro Wells, TE, TCU - This is just a throw in on one of my late round crushes, but who else would be more pro-ready than a guy named Pro Wells? Actually, he is a pretty polished route runner and a very adept athletic catcher of the ball. He is a former basketball player and it shows up in his athleticism. I really like Pro.

Strategy #2: Josh's Toys

I was tempted to name this the Podunkowego Strategy. He has been banging the drum for more weapons for Josh for a long time.

Rd 1: Terrance Marshall Jr, WR, LSU - A complete positionless receiver with speed. For those that love the slot guys you could go Elijah Moore, Slot WR, Ole Miss, but I prefer going towards a scheme with positionless receivers.

Rd 2: Brevin Jordan, TE, Miami - A very dynamic weapon that loves to block! I really think he will be the best NFL TE in the group. Kyle Pitts is not a TE. He is a Big Slot WR.

Rd 3: Jermar Jefferson, RB, Oregon St - A very shifty RB that also has tons of experience as a receiver. He is lined up all over the formation. Optionally we could get Chris Evans, RB, Michigan. Pick your favorite

Rd 5a: Jack Anderson, OG, Texas Tech - More depth to keep Josh upright

Rd 5b: Jimmy Morrissey, OC, Pitt - Good zone blocking Center. Morrissey also won the Walk-on award for the NCAA.

Rd 6: Whop Philyor, WR, Indiana - another gadgety weapon

Rd 7: Alaric Jackson, OT, Iowa - More depth at OT

Strategy #3: Trench Warfare

If you are like me and highly value the Offensive and Defensive Lines, then this is the option for you.

Rd 1: Joseph Ossai, Edge, Texas - This guy is a new crush of mine. I know that he plays a 3-4 OLB position, but the way they play it at Texas he is mostly a hand-in-the-dirt DE. I am so impressed with his use of power and speed in run defense and pass rush coupled with a heavy does of McD hustle/toughness. All he would need in his resume is a stint as a wrestler in high school and he would be a perfect soldier for McD. I think the Bills could really make him work in their defense.

Rd 2: Tyler Shelvin, 1-Tech DT, LSU - A true game-changer in run defense and pass rush, assuming he doesn't eat himself out of the league. I think he is the only DT difference maker in the draft.

Rd 3: Joshua Kaindoh, 4-3 DE - Joshua is a crush of mine. I think he has all of the tools to be great. I am not sure why he is not getting the love in big boards. I think many are scared off because he missed 2019 due to a leg injury. Either way, he is worth the risk. Good blend of run defense and pass rush. Used his height as leverage. Very aware of play around him. Constantly has hands up to block. sniffed out a screen and intercepted for TD. Hustle, hustle, hustle. And he is aggressive. Very good bend for a guy 6'7". Alternatively, I could also go with Elerson Smith, 4-3 DE, Northern Iowa - This is a guy that Textpat put me onto. I watched his tape and he is just a notch down from Kaindoh, but he is very similar. His is a bit skinny for his 6'7" frame, but that is the only knock. He uses his height and length well for leverage and despite his height he can also use burst and bend around the edge. He held up well in the Senior Bowl 1:1 drills.

Rd 5a: Bryce Hargrove, OG, Pitt - Bryce has a great OG mentality, but he isalso a technician in the run and pass blocking.

Rd 5b: Khyiris Tonga, 1-Tech/3-Tech DT, BYU - Khyiris is a big man with some juice. He would be a great addition to the rotation with Shelvin and Oliver.

Rd 6: Kayode Awosika, OT, Buffalo - If you saw any of the highlights of Jarrett Patterson, he was running through some enormous holes. I have not done a film analysis of Kayode, but he sounds like a good flier in the 6th round.

Rd 7: Pro Wells, TE, TCU - TE is an extension of the OL. Pro is a big man that can

Strategy #4: Optimistics-R-Us

If you are a fan of the Oprah Christmas Gift show ("You get a gift!... You get a gift!") and believe that prospects will fall at least 9 spots in all rounds for the Bills to snatch, then your dream has come true with this option!

Rd 1: Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson - Daveo and Jewski get a gift!

Rd 2: Eric Stokes, CB, Georgia - You get a gift!

Rd 3: Hamsah Nasirildeen, S, Florida St- You get a gift!

Rd 5a: Daelin Hayes, DE, Notre Dame - You get a gift!

Rd 5b: Dazz Newsome, WR, UNC - You get a gift!

Rd 6: Tedarrell Slaton, 1-Tech DT, Florida - You get a gift!

Rd 7: Kayode Awosika, OT, Buffalo - You get a gift!

Strategy #5: Dwight from the Future

Besides being one of my favorite bits from The Office, this option focuses on future needs for the team. The team is getting older at DE, 1-Tech DT, Safety, WR, and OC

Rd 1: Joseph Ossai, Edge, Texas - Jerry's replacement

Rd 2: Tyler Shelvin, 1-Tech DT, LSU - Star's replacement

Rd 3: Quinn Meinerz, OG/OC, Wisconsin -Whitehurst - Morse's replacement.

Rd 5a: Darrick Forrest, S, Cincinnati - Micah Hyde's replacement

Rd 5b: Cornell Powell, WR, Clemson - Beasley's replacement

Rd 6: Josh Imatorbhebhe, WR, Illinois - Sanders' replacement

Rd 7: Reed Blankenship, S, Middle Tennessee - Poyer's replacement

Strategy #6: Pure BPA

This option just takes the player that is the highest rated based on the average of 12 draftnik sites. Hmmm... this is a good strategy if you want two Slot WRs and two RBs. This is better than last year though. I think I had 4 safeties.

Rd 1: Kadarius Toney, Slot WR, Florida

Rd 2: Tylan Wallace, Slot WR, Oklahoma St

Rd 3: Patrick Jones II, 4-3 DE, Pitt

Rd 5a: Kylin Hill, RB, Mississippi St

Rd 5b: Shakur Brown, CB, Michigan St

Rd 6: Robert Jones, OG, Middle Tennessee

Rd 7: Elijah Mitchell, RB, Louisiana

Strategy #7: The Short and Long of It

This option takes a mix of short term needs (DT, Edge, and CB) and long-term needs (S, WR, OC). This is also known as the "strategic BPA". Using a mix of different needs plus assessing the value at certain positions.

Rd 1: Greg Newsome III, CB, Northwestern - Short-term need

Rd 2: Tyler Shelvin, 1-Tech DT, LSU - Short and long-term need

Rd 3: Joshua Kaindoh, 4-3 DE - Short and long-term need

Rd 5a: Darrick Forest, S, Cincinnati - long-term need

Rd 5b: Jimmy Morrissey, OC, Pitt - long-term need

Rd 6: Josh Imatorbhebhe, WR, Illinois - long-term need

Rd 7: Pro Wells, TE, TCU - long-term need

I am sure there a million other combinations of strategies, but I think this hits on some of the major ones.

What Will the Bills Do?

If I knew that, then I would not be writing this Post... . That said, I do think that the Bills will something like the "Short and the Long of It". They have set themselves up where they don't have huge pressing needs. That said, I think based on how the AFC Championship went, Beane feels that there are at least 1 or 2 needs. I think the key will be how the talent falls in round one and what the Bills feel their greatest need is (or if they have a need). Here's what I think they will do...

  • I am convinced that the Bills 1st round pick will exude the Bills DNA (toughness, smart, team-centric, and disciplined). This is a pattern that I think will not be broken. Every 1st round pick so far for this regime has been a poster child for the Bills DNA: White, Allen, Edmunds, Oliver, and you can even throw in Diggs. 1st round picks usually turn into leaders and high contract players. The Bills do not want to spend their draft and financial capitol on players that do not reflect their values. This I am 100% certain of. In my research of late 1st round players, there are 3 players that stick out to me as fitting this profile based on their play on the field: Joseph Ossai, Carlos Basham, and Greg Newsome. All of them are high ceiling, high floor, high effort, tough, aggressive players. I'm sure there are others that fit this mold in the 1st round, but these 3 seem like they fit the mold the best (based on my limited information).
  • Secondarily, I think the Bills will like the 1st round pick to be in an area of short-term need. The best chance for a 1st year starter is in round 1 and round 2. That said, if the player/value is not there at the positions of need, then I could just see them going with the highest value player.
  • In the 2nd round, I think they will repeat the 1st round approach, but the rules start to relax. Short-term need breaks a tie, but long-term needs/wants are definitely in play.
  • By the 3rd round pick, they will try to complete any short-term needs. The chances of getting a 1st year starter after round 3 is very limited.
  • After that, take long-term projects, high-ceiling players, and backup depth with starting potential.

Ultimately, who knows what they will do. The only thing I am certain of is that the 1st round pick will exude the Bills DNA. After that.... Who knows? It will be exciting though. There is a lot to be excited about with this team.

What Would You Do?

I wanted to add a poll to this post, but that feature appears to be broken. Let me know in the comments what strategy you would do if you were the Bills

Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.