The Buffalo Bills are the NFL’s most likely playoff team after three weeks according to number-crunching site FiveThirtyEight. Coming in with an 89 percent chance of making the postseason, they are 7 percent clear of the next-highest AFC team, the Tennessee Titans. Buffalo’s projected record of 12-5 is also tops, along with a staggering projected point differential of +154.
Buffalo’s playoff chances are buoyed by their 79 percent chance of winning the AFC East (tied for the highest percentage in the league). At 2-1, Buffalo is a game ahead of the Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots at 1-2 and the woeful 0-3 New York Jets, plus they have a tiebreaker over Miami.
The Bills also have a 21 percent chance of earning a first-round bye—leaps and bounds ahead of the teams in the AFC West. The hard schedule of the 3-0 Denver Broncos, 3-0 Las Vegas Raiders, 2-1 Los Angeles Chargers, and 1-2 Kansas City Chiefs is the reason those teams are all so low.
As for Super Bowl predictions, Buffalo is third at 11 percent behind the Los Angeles Rams and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.