The Buffalo Bills are 4.5-point favorites over the New England Patriots on Saturday night, according to our friends at DraftKings SportsBook. The over/under is 43.5 points, so oddsmakers think Buffalo should win the game by roughly the final score of 24 to 19.5.
The Bills are the smallest favorites of any of the AFC games this weekend. Kansas City is favored by 12.5 over Pittsburgh and Cincinnati is a 6.5-point favorite over Las Vegas.
The weather report would seem to indicate that the teams will hit the over. In their first game this year, Buffalo and New England did not cover thanks to huge winds slowing the offenses. In their second game with no such wind, the Bills won 33-21 to easily cover the spread (they were 1.5-point underdogs, in fact) and the 43.5-point over/under. They combined for 47 and 45 points in their two games during the 2020 season.
All of the Bills’ wins this year have been by 12 or more points, and they’ve beaten the spread in all but one of their victories. They are 10-7 in the regular season against the spread but 8-8-1 on the over/under for the year.