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AFC Playoff Picture: Bills can’t gain 2 seed after Chiefs win

Bills need some help this weekend if they want to move up

Matt Warren is Associate Director of NFL coverage for SB Nation and previously covered the Bills for Buffalo Rumblings for more than a decade.

Currently the Buffalo Bills sit in the fourth spot in the AFC Playoff Picture. With a win on Sunday, they will solidify themselves as the AFC East division winner as well as at least the four seed and a home playoff game next weekend.

That’s not the whole story, though. With a win plus some help, they can move to the three seed in the AFC. Buffalo hosts the Jets in the late afternoon and the Bengals are at the Browns early afternoon on Sunday. The Bengals have already announced that several offensive starters will be out of the game as they rest or recover from COVID-19, but the Browns will also be without their starting quarterback.

When the Chiefs won on Saturday afternoon, Buffalo couldn’t get to the two seed anymore.

The Denver Broncos led the game for a good chunk but a huge play turned the tide. Denver was inside the ten, but a running play was blown up with the Chiefs almost taking the handoff, the Broncos running back fumbled, Kansas City took it to the house for a touchdown, and the game was over from there.

If the Titans win, they are the one seed. If they lose, the Titans are the two seed.

If the Bengals lose and the Bills win, Buffalo moves up to the three seed. If both the Bengals and Bills win, Buffalo is the four seed.

If Buffalo loses, they fall into the Wild Card picture if the New England Patriots win.

Here is the current AFC playoff picture along with scenarios below.

AFC Standings

  1. Kansas City Chiefs (12-5, loss to TEN)-yx
  2. Tennessee Titans (11-5, win over KC)-yx
  3. Cincinnati Bengals (10-6, 8-3 AFC)-yx
  4. Buffalo Bills (10-6, 4-1 AFCE, 6-5 AFC)-x
  5. New England Patriots (10-6, 3-2 AFCE, 8-3 AFC)-x
  6. Indianapolis Colts (9-7, 7-4 AFC)
  7. Los Angeles Chargers (9-7, win over LVR, 6-5 AFC)
  8. Las Vegas Raiders (9-7, loss to LAC)
  9. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7-1)
  10. Miami Dolphins (8-8, win over BAL)
  11. Baltimore Ravens (8-8, loss to MIA)
  12. Cleveland Browns (7-9, win over DEN)
  13. Denver Broncos (7-10, loss to CLE)
  14. Houston Texans (4-11, loss to NYJ)
  15. New York Jets (4-12, win over HOU)
  16. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-14)

y- Clinched division
x- Clinched playoff spot
italics- Eliminated