Fresh off of their bye week, the primetime Buffalo Bills are back at home and energized for Sunday Night Football. Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers head to Western New York hoping they can gain some momentum and notch a win after losing their last three games against the New York Giants, New York Jets, and Washington Commanders.
The Bills are massive favorites this week, as the 10.5-point spread marks the largest of Rodgers’s career. With the way the Packers have been losing games, the spread doesn’t come as a surprise. When the schedule was announced, most people had this game circled as a potential preview of the Super Bowl. At this point in the season, there isn’t a lot of optimism in Wisconsin that Green Bay will make it to the big game this season.
Here are my thoughts and things to look for during this game.
- The best ability is availability. For only the second time this season the Bills are healthy with the exception of the players on Injured Reserve. The defense would obviously love to have Micah Hyde back there paired with Jordan Poyer at safety, but Damar Hamlin has fared well against opposing passing attacks thus far. Prior to the season, I said this was the best team on paper that the Bills have assembled since the early ‘90s. We haven’t been able to see the roster play together as general manager Brandon Beane has envisioned this year, but I have a feeling this weekend may be the first we see the vision become reality. In the game against the Kansas City Chiefs, Devin Singletary was finally featured as RB1 and he rewarded offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey by having his best game of the season. Quarterback Josh Allen is looking like the early favorite for MVP, and the defense looks better than they did last year when they were ranked first overall. This game will be a preview of the squad we can expect to make a run in the playoffs.
- The Packers’ offense is no longer their strength. For years, we’ve seen Rodgers make throws that only a select few could make. He’s elevated players around him and led one of the NFL’s most dangerous offenses. You don’t win MVP back to back unless you’re special. It wasn’t a fluke. But this year it’s been clear that Rodgers can’t carry this team like he’s done in the past. Losing top receiver Davante Adams has affected this offense more than anyone could have imagined. How will the Packers score against the Bills defense? Edge rusher Von Miller, defensive tackle DaQuan Jones and the rest of the defensive line have made it difficult for teams to run and throw the ball. Aaron Jones will need to be more involved in the run game as well as the passing game. With no real threat of pass action, can the Packers move the ball?
- The Packers boast a young, very talented secondary led by cornerback Jaire Alexander. They feel it’s a strength to play man to man as they have the ability to hang with most offenses around the league. This will be a test for them as the Bills have one of the best tandems at the receiver position. Stefon Diggs comes into this game as second in the league in receiving yards. And Gabe Davis took time to allow his ankle to hear and picked up right where he left off in the divisional round of last year’s playoffs. I expect Josh Allen to put on a show. It’s nearly impossible to imagine a team being able to cover Diggs and Davis man to man for the majority of any game.
For the last two years, Rodgers was clearly the best quarterback in the league. He beat out Allen for the MVP two years ago, and last year no one was close. It’s fair to say this year it looks like the roles are reversed. This isn’t going to be a major matchup of two juggernaut quarterbacks. This is going to be a display of Allen’s brilliance.
Bills cover the spread and win big at home.
DraftKings Bills Mafia SGP
- Bills cover the spread -10.5
- Gave Davis Anytime Touchdown
- Devin Singletary Anytime Touchdown
As I mentioned previously, this game will be about Allen’s brilliance. We will see why he’s the front runner for MVP. I really don’t see the Bills having difficulty covering the spread.
The Packers have the league’s top-ranked pass defense, so they’ll look to cover our receivers in man to man. I’m not so sure that’s the formula you’d like to use against this offense. I see Gabe Davis having a big game. Expect an anytime touchdown from him. And lastly, we saw Singletary finally get the majority of carries against the Chiefs. I’m hoping the Bills stick with that formula against one of the league’s worst run defenses. Singletary will score as well being the feature back.