The Buffalo Bills are fresh off a bye week and crucial Week 6 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs, with a chance to build more momentum against a struggling Green Bay Packers team in Orchard Park, NY tonight on Sunday Night Football. The Bills are currently 10.5-point favorites, which marks the first time Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has ever been a double-digit underdog in his career.
It seems like nearly everything is in Buffalo’s favor entering this game, but there’s one stat Bills Mafia should be wary of heading into Sunday night: Rodgers is 13-0 in his last 13 primetime matchups, and has thrown 36 touchdowns to just two interceptions in that span. Although the Packers have an 0-6 all-time record in Orchard Park, it’s hard to ignore Rodgers’s overall production in primetime the last few seasons.
Let’s take a look at Rodgers’s stats across these last 13 games and compare those to his current situation to get a full understanding of the reason for his success.
Chicago Bears at Packers, 2022 Week 2, Sunday Night Football
Final: Packers 27, Bears 10
This was the most recent primetime win for Rodgers, and he wasn’t asked to do too much, completing 19-of-25 passes for 234 yards and two touchdowns. This was more of a run-first game, with both Packers running backs registering a total of 33 carries for nearly 200 yards.
Minnesota Vikings at Packers, 2021 Week 17, Sunday Night Football
Final: Packers 37, Vikings 10
We’re back to the end of 2021 now—the second consecutive MVP campaign for Rodgers. He still had wide receiver Davante Adams to work with, the main weapon during his domination over the league from 2020-21. Rodgers threw for 288 yards and two touchdowns, with Adams catching 11 balls for 136 yards and one of those scores.
Bears at Packers, 2021 Week 14, Sunday Night Football
Final: Packers 45, Bears 30
Just three weeks before the dominant performance against the Vikings, Rodgers and Adams dominated some more. Rodgers threw for 341 yards and four touchdowns, with Adams catching two of those. At this point, the Packers were nearing the end of another 13-win season, and Rodgers was on fire.
Packers at Arizona Cardinals, 2021 Week 8, Thursday Night Football
Final: Packers 24, Cardinals 21
Rodgers saw his stats take a big hit this game, throwing for just 184 yards and two touchdowns—but Adams was sidelined. Nonetheless, he made it work with practice-squad receivers, and led the Packers to the win. The run game helped facilitate the win too, totaling over 100 yards and a touchdown.
Packers at San Francisco 49ers, 2021 Week 3, Sunday Night Football
Final: Packers 30, 49ers 28
This was a classic GB-SF clash with the game coming down to the wire, but Rodgers came out on top, throwing for over 260 yards and two touchdowns. The receiving corps was fully healthy this early in the season, and it certainly helped Rodgers kick-start his second MVP campaign.
Detroit Lions at Packers, 2021 Week 2, Monday Night Football
Final: Packers 35, Lions 17
Just one week prior to the last performance was another elite line for Rodgers, totaling four touchdowns. This was the “Aaron Jones game” last season, where he found the end zone four separate times—including three times just from Rodgers. It was just a matchup against the Detroit Lions, but this was the moment the league realized Rodgers was still on another planet.
Tennessee Titans at Packers, 2020 Week 16, Sunday Night Football
Final: Packers 40, Titans 14
Now we’re at the end of the COVID-19 season, and Rodgers is about to win his first MVP since 2014. He threw four touchdown passes in this game, and the Packers finished the season with a 13-3 record. Adams was unbelievable, catching 11 balls for 142 yards and three touchdowns. Rodgers did throw his first of two picks in this 13-game span, however.
Carolina Panthers at Packers, 2020 Week 15, game played on Saturday
Final: Packers 24, Panthers 16
Since the pandemic was all around the league, some games were rescheduled—and the Packers got an additional primetime game as a result. Rodgers’s stat line was one to forget, throwing for just 143 yards and one touchdown, but the Packers still got the job done. This was just a week before his dominant performance against the Titans mentioned above.
Bears at Packers, 2020 Week 12, Sunday Night Football
Final: Packers 41, Bears 25
Rodgers led the way again, throwing for 211 yards and four touchdowns. The Packers offense was unstoppable, and Rodgers has always been very good against divisional opponents. Four different pass-catchers caught touchdowns.
Packers at 49ers, 2020 Week 9, Thursday Night Football
Final: Packers 34, 49ers 17
Rodgers threw for 305 yards and four touchdowns, and the Packers’ pass-catchers posted impressive performances. Wide receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling caught two touchdowns, and Adams caught one as well. Neither are with the Packers any longer.
Atlanta Falcons at Packers, 2020 Week 4, Monday Night Football
Final: Packers 30, Falcons 16
This was the first of three straight four-touchdown performances in primetime for Rodgers. He threw for 327 yards and four touchdowns, all without Adams playing. Although the Falcons were 0-3 at the time, Rodgers put the team on his back in this game.
Packers at New Orleans Saints, 2020 Week 3, Sunday Night Football
Final: Packers 37, Saints 30
This was ultimately the beginning of his first of two MVP campaigns. It was early in the season, but now-retired Saints quarterback Drew Brees was on the other side of the ball, so Rodgers’s 283-yard, three-touchdown performance was as impressive as it got.
Packers at Vikings, 2019 Week 16, Monday Night Football
Final: Packers 23, Vikings 10
We are now all the way back to 2019, when wide receiver Stefon Diggs still played for the Vikings. Rodgers and the Packers still finished 13-3 this season, but he didn’t do much in this win, throwing for just 216 yards and one interception. It was the other one of two interceptions he threw across this 13-game win streak.
The vast majority of these wins are purely because of Rodgers’s dominance across his two MVP seasons, but when comparing those situations to his current situation today in 2022, it’s nowhere near the same.
His offensive line isn’t as great as it used to be, his wide receiver core consists of Allen Lazard, Romeo Doubs, and Sammy Watkins, and he has verbally expressed concerns via press conferences about the players’ skills and abilities around him. The Packers’ last three losses have come against the New York Giants, New York Jets and Washington Commanders. Those teams have a combined team average scoring margin of +1.6, while the Bills themselves have +15.8.
At the end of the day, the majority of this streak was obtained during his MVP seasons with an elite receiving threat. His weapons are nowhere near dominant enough for him to keep up with Buffalo’s offense. The Bills are double-digit favorites for a reason, and the team is near full health—so unless Buffalo beats themselves, this game shouldn’t cause too much stress.
Hopefully head coach Sean McDermott had this stat plastered on every television and monitor at the Bills’ practice facility to fuel the team to come out and dominate on national television in front of Bills Mafia.