Through four games in 2022, Buffalo Bills signal caller Josh Allen has unsurprisingly been one of the best quarterbacks in the league. What other quarterbacks across the NFL have been performing at a high level and who has disappointed so far? Let’s take a look at the STEW.
For the uninitiated, QB STEW is a metric amalgamation I concocted in an attempt to have the flaws of one metric accommodated in the formula by the presence of another metric. You can find the original article with reasoning here.
First, the results:
So I’ll share some observations...
Tua Tagovailoa’s been just as hot to start the year as the narrative said
Tagovailoa’s start to the year is just as impressive in the advanced metrics as it has been to fantasy owners and media pundits alike. Certainly, literally every one of these observations should be couched with “it’s early and there’s a lot of football to be played” (Kyler Murray was number one on these rankings at this time last year, Teddy Bridgewater was in spot number five and Daniel Jones occupied spot number nine). Still, Tagovailoa’s efficiency in new head coach Mike McDaniel’s system with arguably the most dangerous WR duo in football has been exactly what Dolphins fans wanted when they envisioned the new-look offense this past summer.
Second-year jumps for Davis Mills and Justin Fields haven’t happened...yet
Questions surrounded the Chicago Bears’ handling of their offensive roster this offseason. Specifically, the timeline of the new Eberflus/Poles regime failing to align with the development timeline of quarterback Justin Fields. Through four games, not only does Chicago lack any meaningful volume to their passing game, they also don’t have any meaningful efficiency. So much of quarterback development is about the entire organization being on the same page, and it looks like Fields may be the victim of not being drafted on the same timeline of the people currently in charge.
In Houston, there was some optimism surrounding Davis Mills after he finished the 2021 season strong. Whether or not he or New England Patriots rookie quarterback Mac Jones had a better first season was up for debate, and some hoped that Mills could capture the form that made him a top college recruit. Thus far, that momentum hasn’t carried through into the 2022 regular season. With the Texans potentially looking at a top-10 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, the clock on Mills as a preferred starter in the NFL may be ticking.
Josh Allen is off to a hot start
The metrics support Josh Allen’s claim an an MVP contender thus far in 2022. His EPA/play and QBR are boosted by timely and effective rushing. While his ANY/A has taken an expected hit with the way defenses are playing the Bills this year compared last (evidenced by Allen’s much shorter average distance of target and much quicker time to throw compared to the remainder of his career), he’s still operating efficiently and effectively playing a slightly different style than he’s previously played.
Aaron Rodgers takes a dip without Davante Adams
Nobody expected Aaron Rodgers to suddenly become an ineffective quarterback in 2022. Not with head coach Matt LeFleur calling plays and a pair of running backs behind him like A.J. Dillon and Aaron Jones. But without star wide receiver Davante Adams to funnel the passing offense through, Rodgers has been a less efficient player through four weeks. This was the STEW leader each of the last two years. While it’s odd to see him anywhere other than at the top of this list, I would expect him to rise as more of the team’s younger players like Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson become more acclimated with the offense.
...and that’s the way the cookie crumbles. I’m Bruce Nolan with Buffalo Rumblings. You can find me on Twitter and Instagram @BruceExclusive and look for new episodes of “The Bruce Exclusive” every Thursday on the Buffalo Rumblings podcast network!