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Not much has changed for the Buffalo Bills in the AFC playoff picture at the conclusion of NFL Week 8: they won again (27-17 over the Green Bay Packers), remain in first place in both the AFC East and the conference overall, and retain excellent chances of securing the top overall seed in the AFC playoffs.
- Football Outsiders has the Bills with a 71.4% chance at securing the No. 1 seed, which is only a marginal increase from the 70.5% chance that their modeling spit out a week ago. The five-game winning streak for the Tennessee Titans (they haven’t lost since Week 2 in Buffalo) may have something to do with the small shift down.
- The New York Times and its playoff simulator gives the Bills a 65% chance at securing the No. 1 seed. That’s actually a 12% increase over where their modeling had the Bills a week ago, with the Cincinnati Bengals’ unlikely loss to the Cleveland Browns on Monday Night Football likely playing a big role in the jump.
- FiveThirtyEight modeling gives the Bills a 68% chance at securing the top seed. That figure sat at 62% a week ago. Their model adjusts to 71% for the Bills to grab the top spot in their quarterback-adjusted calculations, which is a newer methodology for them.
As it stands today, the Bills already have wins over the other three AFC divisional leaders—Tennessee (41-7 in Week 2), the Baltimore Ravens (23-20 in Week 4), and the Kansas City Chiefs (24-20 in Week 6)—and will have opportunities to earn regular-season victories (and secure tie-breakers) against other playoff contenders, including Cincinnati and divisional foes in the Miami Dolphins, New York Jets (twice), and New England Patriots (twice).
Long story short: the Bills, right now, are where just about every other team in the AFC wishes they were.
AFC playoff picture, Week 9
| Rank | Team | REC | DIV | CON | PD | STRK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | REC | DIV | CON | PD | STRK |
| 1 | Buffalo Bills | 6-1 | 0-1 | 4-1 | +105 | W4 |
| 2 | Tennessee Titans | 5-2 | 3-0 | 4-1 | -6 | W5 |
| 3 | Kansas City Chiefs | 5-2 | 2-0 | 2-2 | +51 | W1 |
| 4 | Baltimore Ravens | 5-3 | 2-0 | 4-2 | +25 | W2 |
| 5 | New York Jets | 5-3 | 1-1 | 4-3 | +17 | L1 |
| 6 | Miami Dolphins | 5-3 | 2-1 | 4-2 | -14 | W2 |
| 7 | Los Angeles Chargers | 4-3 | 2-1 | 4-2 | -25 | L1 |
| 8 | New England Patriots | 4-4 | 1-1 | 3-2 | +14 | W1 |
| 9 | Cincinnati Bengals | 4-4 | 0-3 | 2-3 | +22 | L1 |
| 10 | Indianapolis Colts | 3-4-1 | 1-3-1 | 3-3-1 | -28 | L2 |
| 11 | Cleveland Browns | 3-5 | 2-1 | 2-4 | +1 | W1 |
| 12 | Denver Broncos | 3-5 | 0-2 | 2-4 | -11 | W1 |
| 13 | Las Vegas Raiders | 2-5 | 1-2 | 2-3 | -11 | L1 |
| 14 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 2-6 | 1-2 | 2-3 | +14 | L5 |
| 15 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 2-6 | 1-1 | 1-5 | -77 | L2 |
| 16 | Houston Texans | 1-5-1 | 1-1-1 | 1-4-1 | -38 | L2 |
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