Bills sit No. 5 in AFC playoff picture entering Week 12

As the 2022 NFL regular season takes shape, it is becoming increasingly clear for the Buffalo Bills that their situation in the AFC playoff picture depends nearly entirely on where they finish in the AFC East standings.

The Bills are now 7-3 after a Week 11 win over the Cleveland Browns, 31-23 in Detroit, and are once again tied with the Miami Dolphins (who were on their bye this week) for the top record in the division. Because the Bills lost to Miami in Week 3, however, they are currently the No. 5 seed in the AFC, while Miami sits at No. 2. Both teams are just one game ahead of the New England Patriots and New York Jets, both of which are 6-4 after an—ahem—memorable game between the two ended 10-3 in favor of the Pats.

As we do every week, let’s take a look at playoff odds based on advanced metric modeling from Football Outsiders, The New York Times, and FiveThirtyEight.

• The New York Times gives the Bills a 94% chance of making the playoffs, a 56% chance of winning the AFC East, and a 27% chance of coming all the way back and taking the No. 1 seed away from the Kansas City Chiefs.
• FiveThirtyEight gives the Bills a 94% chance of making the playoffs, a 51% chance of winning the AFC East, and a 17% chance of securing the No. 1 seed.
• Football Outsiders gives the Bills a 95% chance of making the playoffs, a 53.2% chance of winning the AFC East, and a 23.6% of securing a first-round bye.