clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

Bills sit No. 5 in AFC playoff picture entering Week 12

Buffalo’s playoff odds remain very high, but their seeding will depend nearly entirely on where they finish in the AFC East

NFL: Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports

As the 2022 NFL regular season takes shape, it is becoming increasingly clear for the Buffalo Bills that their situation in the AFC playoff picture depends nearly entirely on where they finish in the AFC East standings.

The Bills are now 7-3 after a Week 11 win over the Cleveland Browns, 31-23 in Detroit, and are once again tied with the Miami Dolphins (who were on their bye this week) for the top record in the division. Because the Bills lost to Miami in Week 3, however, they are currently the No. 5 seed in the AFC, while Miami sits at No. 2. Both teams are just one game ahead of the New England Patriots and New York Jets, both of which are 6-4 after an—ahem—memorable game between the two ended 10-3 in favor of the Pats.

AFC East Standings

Rank Team REC DIV CON PD STR L5
Rank Team REC DIV CON PD STR L5
1 Buffalo Bills 9-3 1-2 6-2 +124 W3 3-2
2 Miami Dolphins 8-4 2-1 6-2 +10 L1 4-1
3 New York Jets 7-5 2-2 5-4 +29 L1 2-3
4 New England Patriots 6-6 2-2 5-3 +23 L2 3-2

As we do every week, let’s take a look at playoff odds based on advanced metric modeling from Football Outsiders, The New York Times, and FiveThirtyEight.

  • The New York Times gives the Bills a 94% chance of making the playoffs, a 56% chance of winning the AFC East, and a 27% chance of coming all the way back and taking the No. 1 seed away from the Kansas City Chiefs.
  • FiveThirtyEight gives the Bills a 94% chance of making the playoffs, a 51% chance of winning the AFC East, and a 17% chance of securing the No. 1 seed.
  • Football Outsiders gives the Bills a 95% chance of making the playoffs, a 53.2% chance of winning the AFC East, and a 23.6% of securing a first-round bye.

AFC playoff picture, Week 12

Rank Team REC DIV CON PD STRK
Rank Team REC DIV CON PD STRK
1 Kansas City Chiefs 8-2 3-0 5-2 +67 W4
2 Buffalo Bills 8-3 0-2 5-2 +110 W2
3 Tennessee Titans 7-3 3-0 5-2 +8 W2
4 Baltimore Ravens 7-3 2-0 4-2 +49 W4
5 Miami Dolphins 7-3 2-1 5-2 +11 W4
6 Cincinnati Bengals 6-4 1-3 3-3 +50 W2
7 New York Jets 6-4 2-2 5-4 +13 L1
8 New England Patriots 6-5 2-1 5-2 +37 L1
9 Los Angeles Chargers 5-5 2-2 4-3 -31 L2
10 Indianapolis Colts 4-6-1 1-3-1 4-4-1 -47 L1
11 Jacksonville Jaguars 3-7 1-2 3-4 +11 L1
12 Las Vegas Raiders 3-7 2-2 3-5 -17 W1
13 Cleveland Browns 3-7 2-1 2-6 -29 L2
14 Denver Broncos 3-7 0-3 2-6 -24 L2
15 Pittsburgh Steelers 3-7 1-2 1-6 -74 L1
16 Houston Texans 1-8-1 1-1-1 1-4-1 -71 L5