Bills remain No. 5 in AFC playoff picture entering Week 13

Another week has come and gone in the 2022 NFL regular season, and the AFC playoff picture situation for the Buffalo Bills remains unchanged: they need to worry about taking care of business in the AFC East standings before worrying about the No. 1 seed and the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Bills are 8-3 entering Week 13, tied with the Miami Dolphins in the win-loss column, but second in the division behind them thanks to Miami’s head-to-head win over the Bills back in Week 3. The 7-4 New York Jets and the 6-5 New England Patriots are still very much alive, as well. Buffalo’s next three games are against division rivals—at the Patriots this week on Thursday Night Football, followed by home dates with the Jets in Week 14 and the Dolphins in Week 15, respectively—so they do control their own destiny a bit.

As we do every week, let’s take a look at playoff odds based on advanced metric modeling from Football Outsiders, The New York Times, and FiveThirtyEight.

• The New York Times gives the Bills a 96% chance of making the playoffs, a 61% chance of winning the AFC East, and a 30% chance of coming all the way back and taking the No. 1 seed away from the Chiefs.
• FiveThirtyEight gives the Bills a 96% chance of making the playoffs, a 63% chance of winning the AFC East, and a 22% chance of securing the No. 1 seed.
• Football Outsiders gives the Bills a 95.7% chance of making the playoffs, a 55.3% chance of winning the AFC East, and a 25.2% chance of securing a first-round bye.