Often when you look at a disaster or a failure you hear the phrase "No one saw it coming" and when I hear that I laugh. If you're a pilot in the United States Air Force and probably a pilot in the Department of Defense you know the name Lieutenant Colonel Arthur "Bud" Holland.
In 1994 Col Bud Holland crashed his B-52 StratoFortress after conducting an unsafe maneuver. The issue was that many, many people knew that Bud Holland was unsafe. He pushed the BUFF (Big Ugly Fat Fellow or the F word depending on who you want to talk to) way beyond its capabilities. His troops knew he was unsafe, the local Air Traffic Controllers knew he was unsafe as they had complained about him flying to the military, his superiors knew he was unsafe. But why did it not become obvious until after the crash?
I believe it goes back to the basic idea of wanting to see the best in everyone. It is natural to want to see the best in everyone and hope that for the most part everyone succeeds. People looked at Bud Holland and they said he was a good pilot, he pushed the limits but he would never do anything that could hurt or harm anyone, he has some Maverick in him is all. People justified his bad actions due to human nature to want the best and see the best in everyone. It was inevitable, sadly, that the only possible way for Col Holland's story to end was with a crash and burn that took his life and the life of others.
Looking at this idea that disasters are often not coming out of left field is there any surprise with the Cardinals and Russell Wilson? Looking into both of those tire fires we can see that the crash and burn is quite obvious when you look back at it. So lets dive into the three reasons for each that showed the disaster was coming even thou some saw success.
Cardinals: Looking at the Cardinals here are the three reasons why I had serious questions about disasters. The first is that Kyler Murray can't see the whole field. This is why he normally feasts on alert concepts because he just cant operate within the structure over the middle. Defenses are starting to just dare him to throw over the middle and he doesn't with consistency. The second is obvious; Kyler isn't a true professional. When it was leaked by the Cardinals to the media that in his contract he needed to have 4 hours of outside study time it was telling the world he isn't a professional. The last is Kliff Kingbury struggles to adjust. This is shown as his second half of the season record is just bad since being in college.
The Cardinals highest paid player struggles to see the whole field, acting like a professional and the head coach can't adjust. We knew this before the season, 4-8 so far this season.
Looking at Russell Wilson there were some obvious signs. 1.) The Seahawks seemed almost happy to be rid of Wilson. None of his former teammates came running to his defense and say the Seahawks were going to need him. It almost felt like Bobby Wagner being gone got more players up in their feelings than Wilson being traded. That just seemed odd to me. Thinking back, I can't remember a player talking about Wilson the way that teammates talk about Mahomes or Allen. 2.) Wilson has never played a different style of offense. They had different offensive coordinators, offensive philosophy but Wilson always kind of played the same exact game. So when we discuss Wilson we all thought him leaving Seattle would mean he would change his offensive game, maybe he only has one offensive game. It may be elite but it still is one. 3.) Hackett is just not a head coach or an elite offensive mind. Now, Bills and Jags fans know this because he has never elevated anyone in his schemes and we watched his struggles as he learned under Doug "No Saint" Marrone.
The Broncos being awful when looking at in hindsight as "duh" but it really should be looked at with more of a "Oh yea" because Wilson had some obvious flaws from Seattle. No former players stuck up for him (DT yelling at him on the sideline last week) and Hackett being obviously a bad pick the disaster was kind of obvious.
Random Bills Thoughts:
1.) John "Smoke" Brown is back and the Bills are not bringing him in for just the practice squad. Truth is that the Bills have some issues with injuries at the offensive weapon positions. I would also like to point out that they can't be thrilled at the performances of the WRs outside of Diggs and Davis (Minus the drops) so what does Brown do to help the Bills? He will bring in speed because I don't believe he lost his straight line speed (maybe a little step on his lateral movement) and that loosens up where Diggs and Dawson works the the best, the intermediate routes. Brown's straight line speed has to be respected and thus loosens up everything. The next is just trust from Josh Allen. I think JA17 would never admit it but I think he is getting nervous throwing to McKenzie and Davis because they both have drops.
2.) I'm hoping the Bills get 30-45 snaps out of Tre White and I really hope Elam starts on the opposite side. I look at Elam he has the best high point corner on the roster given his length and talent. So that to me is needed because Mac Jones at his best will give his WRs a chance and Elam I believe can out jump the Patriots WR. The influence of Tre White if he is in the game changes everything for the secondary.
3.) I want most people to apologize to Tremaine Edmunds because his absence showed exactly how valuable he can be for any defense. Edmunds went out during the Vikings and when did the Vikings start to click? After he left the game. The reason for this is because he is incredibly smart, he is huge in terms of a MLB and in the passing game he is probably the best LB on the team. Now, Milano is the best overall LB but I feel like Edmunds for passing game is just a little better. What Edmunds also does is fill in when a player misses gap integrity in the running game. One of the best things Milano does is free lance, when he does free lance Edmunds is always there to cover.
4.) James Cook is starting to click and I believe he is going to bust one soon enough. It is obvious that he is gaining confidence and he has the speed and ability to break one. His 4.42 speed is obvious and his vision is aligning with the speed of the game. As he continues to gain his confidence he will pull out a long one. That will also open up the passing game.
5.) I really would like to see just a little more of Josh Allen under center and play action. One of the things is that the Bills need to slow down Matthew Judon and with JA17 under center it forces him to respect a little bit more his run responsibility, add in a fake hand off and Judon really has to respect his run role. This also slows the drop of the LBs and just makes it easier for the WRs to get some room. It is obvious that JA17 is struggling a little and if someone is struggling you should as a coach help them the best you can and I just think running the ball and play action would be such a huge help.
1.) I have a belief, sometimes you have to throw out the rookie year. Entering Trevor Lawrence as his rookie year with Urban Meyers was terrible. Now, look at his last game against the Ravens and this little streak of offense he is on. Doug Pederson is teaching and maturing Lawrence and it is working.
2.) I was wrong about Miami and Tua but lets look at some certain things about this years Miami team.
1.) Coach McDaniels is a very good offensive mind and he limits any exposure of Tua into anything that doesn't fit his style. What Tua is running is what he ran in Alabama with it being spread out and speed WRs. Tua is NOT asked to be the offense such as Mahomes or Allen but rather just be on time with the ball.
2.) The team has done EVERYTHING in their power to support Tua and now they have the decision. Do they want to pay Tua big league money? This is a conversation they will have to have and if you're wrong you end up with Kyler Murray and the Cardinals or the amazingly above average but not elite Dak Prescott. If right you have a Superbowl Contender for a decade.
3.) A few things need to be pointed out for the Dolphins current wing streak and Tua having success. Kind of not a huge game against a good defense. That has to be in play because he is having success but they also have had that 3rd in the division last year and kind of a weak schedule this year.
3.) Jeff Saturday pulled a full blown Art Shell combined with early Andy Reid Time Out game plan.
4.) Sauce Gardner is a good rookie but the NFL has got to start calling those obvious pass interference calls on him. He really is following the Richard Sherman pass defended model. Commit a pass interference on every play and they won't flag you every single play. But I have seen him get the benefit of the doubt way too much. Got to call it even.
5.) I understand the Jets decision to bench Zach Wilson and as a lover of good football I cheer, as someone who loves really inappropriate humor and knowing Zach's love of older ladies... I weep. BUt something stood out from Robert Saleh talking about Mike White after beating the Bears... "He makes easy look easy" and that was a full indictment of Zach Wilson. Quarterback is the hardest position in all of sports. So the easy needs to be easy because the difficulty only 15-30 can actually do it in the NFL.
6.) Can we take a minute and discuss Aaron Rogers and the need to shut him down for the year. Packers, the season is lost and Rogers needs to sit because the question is what can Jordan Love be? These upcoming starts are more beneficial to Jordan than a 38 year old QB who has been wishy washy of retiring. I get it, Rogers got his contract but lets be honest you probably can trade Rogers if you wish and he probably wishes as well and you can start over again. Either way, it's time to shut it down.
Have a great week!