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How far can the Buffalo Bills trade up in 2022 NFL Draft first round?

With a stacked roster, the Bills can swing for the fences

The Buffalo Bills have a completely loaded roster heading into the 2022 NFL Draft. There are one or two exceptions (cornerback, backup tackle) so it could be the time where we see some trades. The Bills can package multiple picks to move up and get one solid player and give a team looking for bodies a chance to have more bites at the apple.

Buffalo currently sits at pick 25, and if they see a player who particularly tickles their fancy, they could move up in the first round. What kind of ammo do they have using draft picks? Let’s take a look.

We’ll use two charts for our exercise here today; the classic Jimmy Johnson trade value chart and the more updated Rich Hill chart. They are similar, but not identical.

Jimmy Johnson chart

  • Round 1 – No. 25 [720]
  • Round 2 – No. 57 [330]
  • Round 3 – No. 89 [145]
  • Round 4 – No. 130 [42]
  • Round 5 – No. 168 [24]
  • Round 6 – No. 185 [17]
  • Round 6 – No. 203 [10]
  • Round 7 – No. 231 [1]

If Buffalo wanted to go all Mike Ditka on the draft, their entire draft haul is worth 1289 points, which would get them near the top ten. The tenth overall pick is worth 1300 points while the 11th pick is 1250 points. They would have to use future picks to get into the top ten.

The 12th overall pick is worth 1200 points, roughly equal to Buffalo’s first, second, and third picks in the draft. The 13th overall pick is worth 1150 points, so Buffalo could send picks one, two and three and get back an early fifth rounder.

Pick 14 could be had with the first-round and second-round picks plus a fourth-round pick and a sixth-round pick. That’s strict value, though, so the first three picks makes more sense.

A trade for pick 15 is as clean as it could be on the value chart; Buffalo’s first and second picks are worth a combined 1050 points.

Buffalo’s first-round and second-round picks are too much for number 17, and the Los Angeles Chargers don’t really have something they could send back to the Bills in terms of draft pick compensation to make it even. The Bills could send their first-round plus third-, fourth-, fifth-, and higher of the sixth-rounders, but that seems excessively complicated.

At 18, the Bills could use their first-round pick paired up with the third-round and fourth-round picks.

The 19th pick is worth 875 points, so Buffalo’s first-, third-, and later sixth-round picks would need to go to the Philadelphia Eagles.

A move to 20 wouldn’t be easy, as the Pittsburgh Steelers probably want to move up, not down, so Buffalo would have to send their first-round and third-round picks to Pittsburgh.

To move up to 21, the Bills would need to trade their fourth-round, fifth-round, and higher of the two sixth-round picks to get the necessary capital.

It would cost both the fourth-round and fifth-round selections to move up to 22. To get from 25 to 23, the Bills would part with their fourth-round selection and moving up from 25 to 24 would cost Buffalo’s fifth-rounder.

Rich Hill chart

  • Round 1 – No. 25 [229.88]
  • Round 2 – No. 57 [95.73]
  • Round 3 – No. 89 [45.94]
  • Round 4 – No. 130 [18.49]
  • Round 5 – No. 168 [7.93]
  • Round 6 – No. 185 [5.43]
  • Round 6 – No. 203 [3.64]
  • Round 7 – No. 231 [1.95]

Again looking at a Ditka trade, the total value of Buffalo’s picks is 408.99, which would get Buffalo to the eighth overall selection. To move to ninth, the Bills would need to send their first-round, second-round, third-round, and fourth-round pick—and the tenth pick would take their top three selections.

Pick 11 could be had for the top three picks, but the Bills would also receive a mid-fifth in return.

Selection 12 drops down the compensation to Buffalo’s first-round and second-round picks plus the fourth-rounder. The 13th pick is first-round and second-round picks plus the fifth-round and later sixth-round picks.

The 14th pick is the cleanest one on the chart; Buffalo’s first-round and second-round picks are within 0.3 points.

Further down the chart, it’s messy to get to 15. Buffalo’s first-round and second-round are too much, so Buffalo would need a late fifth-rounder back. Pick 16 would be first-round and second-round picks, but a late fourth-rounder back.

Buffalo trading their first-round, third-round, and fourth-round picks would get close to pick 17. The Bills’ first-round, third-round, fifth-round plus a later pick would get the job done for 18. Just the first-round pick and the third-round pick might be enough to get the 19th overall pick, but Buffalo may have to add the seventh-rounder to get full value. The 20th overall selection is worth Buffalo’s first-round plus the third-rounder, but they would get a sixth-round pick back.

Pick 21 is in no-man’s land; Buffalo’s first-round and third-round pick would be too much, and they get back an early fifth-rounder.

Pick 22 is worth Buffalo’s first-round, fourth-round, and one of the sixth-rounders.

Buffalo’s fifth-round and early sixth-round picks might be enough to move up two spots to 23, but more likely it would take the first- and fourth-round picks.

To move up from 25 to 24, it would cost Buffalo’s fifth-round selection in a pretty clean move. If Buffalo is moving up one spot, it’s likely a bidding war situation. So who knows?

Now when you’re doing your mock drafts, you can have a better sense of what a trade up in the first round would cost.