The final results are in. The 2022 NFL regular season is over, and that means it’s time to reflect on the final QB STEW rankings.
For the uninitiated, QB STEW is a metric amalgamation I concocted in an attempt to have the flaws of one metric accommodated in the formula by the presence of another metric.
You can find the original article with reasoning here.
Josh Allen had another elite season
After finishing with a STEW score of 11 in the 2021 regular season (ranking 12th in the NFL), Allen was better relative to his peers in 2022, with a STEW score of 5.43, coming in at fourth place and narrowly losing out to the MVP-caliber year of Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts. Every single metric that comprises STEW saw Allen with an equal or increased mark this year relative to last, with the biggest jumps coming in passer rating (an eight-rank increase), average net yards per attempt (eight-rank increase), and defensive-adjusted value over average (10-rank increase). Despite a mid-season elbow injury and a rash of turnovers, Allen continues to be an elite quarterback by almost all measures for the Buffalo Bills.
Patrick Mahomes is going to win the NFL MVP
QB STEW has correctly predicted the NFL MVP (who were quarterbacks) all three of the previous years it has been tracked, and I don’t believe this year will be any different. Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes lost one of the best receivers in the league this past offseason, and still managed to put up more efficient numbers. His final STEW composite score (1.86) compares favorably to the last two NFL MVPs — Aaron Rodgers had 1.57 in 2021 and 1.42 in 2020 — and he sits atop our 2022 list.
Rodgers, Brady fall
After the 2021 season, Rodgers and Tom Brady were sitting at Nos. 1 and 2 on the QB STEW rankings, respectively. After the 2022 season, Rodgers is at No. 19, and Brady fell to No. 15. The Green Bay Packers’ passing offense without Davante Adams wasn’t the same, and Brady lost an offensively inclined head coach when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers replaced Bruce Arians with Todd Bowles. Both players became one year older at a time when any year could be the cliff for elite play.
Tua was fantastic when he played, but sample size concerns linger
Tua Tagovailoa only played 70% or more of Miami Dolphins snaps in 12 games this year, and has suffered multiple concussions — casting doubt on whether or not he’ll be the team’s QB in Week 1 of 2023 despite his exceptional play. Tagovailoa ranked in the Top 10 in every single efficiency metric after ranking outside the Top 10 in all the same metrics in 2021. There isn’t a question of whether or not he was great in 2022; the questions revolve around whether or not that level of play would have continued if more games were played, and whether or not his health will keep him from repeating what was a magical 2022 regular season at times.
...and that’s the way the cookie crumbles. I’m Bruce Nolan with Buffalo Rumblings. You can find me on Twitter and Instagram @BruceExclusive and look for new episodes of “The Bruce Exclusive” every Thursday on the Buffalo Rumblings podcast network!