FanPost

Bills / Bengals Playoff Matchup - Opponent Strength Still Matters!!

I posted a Post recently (https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2023/1/12/23552469/heading-into-the-p-p-p-p-playoffs) that tried to support the idea that Opponent Strength Matters. For me, it is a truth. In this post, I took some meaningful stats and hopeful made them more meaningful by adjusting them against the opponents that a team plays. But I wanted to go another level deeper into these statistics while we prep for the Bills Bengals playoff game. In the original post, I just adjusted the metrics by opposing teams that were ranked #20 or higher. In this post, I will show that, but I will also show the metrics adjusted by opposing teams ranked #10 and higher. This should show how a team does against playoff caliber teams.

IMPORTANT NOTE: When looking at statistics/metric it is as important to know what the data does not include as it is to know what the data does include. Data is only as good as the algorithm that generates it, the person creating it, and the person interpreting it. There are many things that happen over a full season that may throw off the averages: injuries, QB changes, matchup dependencies, weather, etc... So, review this data with that in mind.

Defense

ANOTHER IMPORTANT NOTE: Remember that expected points off of turnovers are deducted from a team's offensive points per drive.

Adjusted based on opponents ranked #20 and above

This should show how a defense has done against at least average offenses.

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This shows that both the Bills and the Bengals have a decent defense against at least average offenses. The Bengals are more stout against the run and the Bills are better against the pass.

Adjusted based on opponents ranked #10 and above

This should show how a defense has done against playoff caliber top 10 offenses

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This was really interesting. Both the Bills and Bengals fall off on Pts/Drive against top 10 offenses. The other metrics stayed fairly stable with the exception of the Bills run defense. It fell off quite a bit too.

Another note is that I would not expect that this is a game where the Bills' running game gets going again. The Bengals are a top 3 run defense.

Offense

Adjusted based on opponents ranked #20 and above

This should show how an offense has done against at least average defenses.

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The Bills and the Bengals have really good high-level offenses against average or better defenses. The one wart is the Bengals rush attack.

Adjusted based on opponents ranked #10 and above

This should show how an offense has done against playoff caliber top 10 defenses

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This is where the Bills' tough schedule this year has sharpened their offense. I know that the offense has come under fire recently, but they have had some really tough defenses on their schedule. Opponent Strength Matters!!! Even top offenses will look a little suspect against top defenses. The one slip is in the Bills' passing game. They do fall off a bit against top defenses (I think that has shown itself throughout the season). The good news is that the Bengals Pass defense is about 12th, so in that respect the matchup may provide some wiggle room for the Bills' offense to still produce.

Summary:

I know that the nerves are on edge with the Bills. I get it. Mine too. They need to limit the turnovers, but turnovers will happen against really good defenses. The good news is that the Bills are really battle tested. Opponent Strength Matters! On the other side of the ball, the Bengals are a really good team. Even though their defense isn't a top defense, they play really hard.

This will be an epic battle. What I see is two top passing offenses, two great QBs, and two solid defenses. The Bengals have the edge in weapons around their QB. The Bengals are banged up in the OL, but Burrow gets it out fairly quick and our DL is not a quick strike group (unless Phillips is 100% healthy). That said, I will take JA17 over anyone in a dogfight!

Let's Go Bills!!

Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.