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The football world has but one game to watch tonight, and it’s the potentially-epic Monday Night Football showdown between the 12-3 Buffalo Bills and the 11-4 Cincinnati Bengals. The game features elite players on both sides of the ball, headlined by MVP-candidate quarterbacks Josh Allen and Joe Burrow, and will showcase two teams with excellent chances at representing the AFC in Super Bowl LVII.
There’s a lot on the line for both teams in this game — so much so that it’s actually difficult to remember each and every potential ramification from the game’s outcome. We’re here to help with that — not just for Bills fans, but for fans of the Bengals, the Kansas City Chiefs, and even the New England Patriots.
What a Bills win would mean
- Buffalo would improve to 13-3 and re-claim the current No. 1 seed in the AFC playoff picture
- Cincinnati would fall to 11-5 and need a Week 18 home win over the Baltimore Ravens to clinch the AFC North title
- With a two-game lead over the rest of the conference, the Bills and the Chiefs would be assured of finishing no worse than the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoffs, with the AFC North winner claiming the No. 3 seed
- Buffalo’s chances at clinching the No. 1 seed would jump from 46% to 82%, per The New York Times playoff simulator; remember that the Bills are 3-0 in home playoff games all-time under head coach Sean McDermott, 0-4 in away playoff games, and 6-0 after bye weeks
- The Bills would be able to clinch the No. 1 seed — and its home-field advantage and first-round bye — with a home win over the Patriots in Week 18; the 8-8 Patriots can clinch a playoff berth themselves with a win over Buffalo next weekend
- With the Chiefs playing the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 18 on Saturday afternoon, the Bills could potentially have the No. 1 seed wrapped up (with a Chiefs loss) before they even play, leading to a potential starters-resting situation for the Patriots to navigate
- Buffalo would have head-to-head victories over seven of the 10 teams still in contention for the postseason — the Chiefs, the Bengals, the Ravens, the Patriots, the Miami Dolphins, the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the Tennessee Titans
What a Bengals win would mean
- Buffalo would fall to 12-4 and slide down to the No. 3 seed in the AFC playoff picture
- Cincinnati would improve to 12-4, clinch the AFC North title, move up to the No. 2 seed, and have head-to-head victories over both the Bills and the Chiefs (as well as the Steelers, Dolphins, Titans, and Patriots)
- Cincinnati would be able to clinch the top seed with a Week 18 win over Baltimore and a Chiefs loss to the Raiders
- Buffalo’s chances at clinching the No. 1 seed would fall to 10%, per The New York Times playoff simulator, while Kansas City’s chances would rise to 63%, and Cincinnati’s would rise to 26%
- In order to clinch the No. 1 seed in Week 18, the Bills would need Kansas City to lose in Las Vegas on Saturday afternoon first, then would need a win over the Patriots and a Bengals loss to the Ravens the following day
- New England could face the possibility of playing a Bills team resting its starters in Week 18 if the Chiefs are able to clinch the No. 1 seed on Saturday afternoon
AFC playoff picture, Week 18
Rank | Team | REC | DIV | CON | PD | STRK |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rank | Team | REC | DIV | CON | PD | STRK |
1 | z — Kansas City Chiefs | 13-3 | 5-0 | 8-3 | +109 | W4 |
2 | z — Buffalo Bills | 12-3 | 3-2 | 8-2 | +157 | W6 |
3 | z — Cincinnati Bengals | 11-4 | 2-3 | 7-3 | +85 | W7 |
4 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 8-8 | 3-2 | 7-4 | +50 | W4 |
5 | x — Los Angeles Chargers | 10-6 | 2-3 | 7-4 | +10 | W4 |
6 | x — Baltimore Ravens | 10-6 | 3-2 | 6-5 | +46 | L1 |
7 | New England Patriots | 8-8 | 3-2 | 6-5 | +29 | W1 |
8 | Miami Dolphins | 8-8 | 2-3 | 6-5 | -7 | L5 |
9 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 8-8 | 2-3 | 4-7 | -52 | W3 |
11 | Tennessee Titans | 7-9 | 3-2 | 5-6 | -57 | L6 |
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