Pregame Rumblings: Jets at Bills, Week 11

Plus, JSpenceTheKing’s pick and SGP for Bills-Jets, Round 2, brought to you by DraftKings Sportsbook

By James Pennington@JSpenceTheKing Nov 19, 2023, 8:30am EST

The Buffalo Bills (5-5) are set to host the New York Jets (4-5) at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY — with both teams coming off a two-game losing streak. The Bills suffered an embarrassing loss to the Denver Broncos in Week 10, with multiple turnovers and key penalties sealing their fate. The next morning following the game offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey was fired, in a move perceived due to the team’s offensive struggles in recent weeks. Compounding issues, quarterback Josh Allen also appears to be regressing in terms of play recognition and finding consistent success on the field.

Meanwhile, the Jets are coming off a tough 16-12 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders, with their struggles defending the run becoming a concern in having given up 116 yards to running back Josh Jacobs. Quarterback Zach Wilson has also faced challenges in finding success this season, with the team struggling to score touchdowns. The Jets gone 11 quarters since their last offensive touchdown, highlighting clear struggles.

In this matchup, the Bills must find a way to overcome the Jets’ defense, which has historically given Josh Allen trouble — most recently forcing him to commit multiple turnovers during a tough Week 1 loss. As soon at today, the Bills will need to make significant improvements with interim offensive coordinator Joe Brady, increasing their productivity if they hope to break a two-game losing streak and keep their playoff hopes alive.

Pregame Rumblings: Jets at Bills, Week 11 podcast

Looking to wager on Bills vs. Jets? Here are a few keys to keep in mind:

The Bills opened as a -6.5 point favorite against the Jets in NFL Week 11 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook, it has since moved to -7.
BUF is at -325 on the moneyline, while NYJ opened at +260.
The over/under (point total) is set at 39.5 points.
The Jets are coming off a 16-12 win against the Las Vegas Raiders.
The Bills are coming off a 24-22 loss against the Denver Broncos.

Before we get to my Same Game Parlay with DraftKings Sportsbook and my pick prediction for Bills vs. Jets, here are my thoughts and things to look for during today’s game...

“Time to let the cougar loose.”

If you’re like me, you’re a “Talladega Nights” fan and you knew exactly what I was talking about with the above quote. Reese Bobby sure knew how to get Ricky Bobby straight and back on the race track. And now my hope is that Joe Brady will come in and do the right thing. Do the simple thing. Don’t try and get too creative by installing things that will further confuse the offense. Let the cougar loose. Josh Allen is a Ferrari SF90 XX being driven like a 1995 Toyota Corolla. For some reason the training wheels were put on Allen this season, and it’s resulted in games where Bills fans don’t even recognize their quarterback. Joe Brady can come out and be the spark that turns this season around by simply putting Josh Allen in positions where he most often succeeds. The offense needs to get the run game going to set up the play-action pass. Allen needs to utilize his legs. No one wants Allen taking unnecessary hits, but it’s important to use him as the weapon he is. When Allen is made to be one-dimensional, he becomes far more manageable on defense. It’s important to remember that the Jets have also been Allen’s thorn. The last three games against the Jets have been less than ideal — with Allen going 63-of-102 for 588 total passing yards with two passing touchdowns and five interceptions. If he plays the way he has in recent meetings with the Jets, he’ll allow them the opportunity to shock the world once again — just like they did Week 1 when they were able to beat the Bills even without quarterback Aaron Rodgers. So Allen and Brady just need to play fast and free. Don’t overthink or over complicate things. Just win.

Diggs & Kincaid need to be Hill & Kelce 2.0

While we’re on the topic of Buffalo’s offense, I’d like to bring up just how amazing rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid has played since tight end Dawson Knox went on Injured Reserve with a wrist injury that required surgery. And while wide receiver Stefon Diggs doesn’t have the speed of wide receiver Tyreek Hill, he’s certainly found similar production. The target share for Hill and tight end Travis Kelce dominated the Kansas City Chiefs’ offense and it made it easy for quarterback Patrick Mahomes to be great. That’s what needs to happen in Buffalo. I know we have been led to believe that wide receiver Gabe Davis is a legitimate WR2 and that he can support Diggs the way wide receiver Jalen Waddle does Hill with the Miami Dolphins. But we just haven’t seen that consistently. We have seen big games where Davis will go for 150 yards and three touchdowns, but then we see games where he disappears in the biggest moments. Davis struggles to create separation unless he’s able to find dead spots in zone coverage. But against man to man, it’s been very difficult for Davis to find his openings and capitalize. That hasn’t been a problem for Dalton Kincaid. The rookie has been top-four in every receiving category in the NFL since Dawson Knox exited the field a few weeks ago. Kincaid is a crisp route runner who gains separation and seems to always be open. In some ways he reminds me of wide receiver Cole Beasley, but not quite as polished as a player just yet. I don’t need to see much more for me to trust that he’ll be the best option behind Diggs for the rest of the 2023 season and beyond.

“Keep On Truckin’”

The Buffalo Bills’ defense has gone through a lot this season already, to say the least. But every week, they continue to do their job. I know what the DVOA shows as well as other metrics. But the fact of the matter is they’ve kept the Bills in games when the offense hasn’t fired on all cylinders. I know most are upset about the 12-men-on-the-field penalty that cost them a win last Monday night, nor do most fans appreciate the pass-interference penalty called on nickel cornerback Taron Johnson. Fans should be, but the four turnovers on offense is more upsetting to me. The Bills gifted the Broncos six points in the first half that ended up coming back to haunt them. But you have to be mindful of the fact that the defense held Denver to six points on four turnovers that very easily could have been worse. Buffalo has also lost the time-of-possession battle two weeks in a row. Against the Cincinnati Bengals, they lost the time battle 36:38 to 23:22, while against the Broncos they lost it 37:21 to 22:39. The defense hasn’t been the problem and I don’t think they’ll become the problem. I just want to see them do everything they’ve been doing so when the offense finally gets it going the team can once again play dominant football, the likes of which we saw in Weeks 2 through 4. I’m calling it now: Look for a huge game from defensive tackle Ed Oliver and edge rusher Greg Rousseau.

Score Prediction: 28, 17 Bills Over The Jets.