FanPost

Did we win the off season again?! Post FA & Draft debate. Did the Bills improve, tread water, or fall behind the competition?


Let me explain my intentions. It's been a long time since my last FanPost, and to the gratitude of many, a long time before I will again after this one.

A few days ago in an article discussion regarding rookie G Torrence, I was reading an interaction between a few members discussing his fitness in our O Line scheme. It was a mostly respectful back and forth with some difference of opinion. But it got me thinking and I chimed in, mainly regarding the McBeane/Whaley neglect of high FA/Draft resources invested in the O Line. It became quite an extensive conversation, and is a necessary part of this post, relevance wise, but too long to include so here is the link if anyone wishes to see the genesis of the discussion.

Original article discussion

This sequel to that conversation I present now are my thoughts concerning whether the Bills FA and Draft has moved this team forward towards the top of the AFC, has us treading water in 2023, or falling further behind and allowing others to pass us as they ascend.

This was originally a follow up reply on the conversation, but grew too large so I decided my thoughts could die here in a FanPost.... hopefully there'll be some conversation below, besides the crickets....

Follow up...

Just want to add this thought regarding the Draft strategy of our closest competition, and how it relates to my stubborn opinion regarding our OLine, and to a slightly lesser degree our DLine.

*Disclaimer....I truly believe the Bills are an excellent team, and that's just impossible without very good coaching and very good players. The source of my high level of aggravation is desire to watch my 55 yrs of fandom (beginning at age 5) team to hoist Lombardi trophy at least 1x before my ashes feed the worms*

In my mind, I'd think teams at the top would target not only what best improves themselves, but also what best pushes them past their greatest adversary (for us: KC, Cincinnati, Jets, Miami, Ravens, Chargers, Jags, Pats, Pitts, Denver, Browns). 12, incl Bills, potentially good to great teams vying for 7 playoff spots. It's debatable (somewhat I suppose) what our greatest need was, but until our OLine is a top 5-10 unit in the NFL, it for me will always be #1 priority, with DLine #2 (all this assuming you have the franchise QB, which we absolutely do!)

Allow me to cherry pick some stats ( I fully understand stats are for nerds and they mostly only exist in a vacuum, but they do help form part of a picture)
Defense rankings (2022) :

Sacks:

1- Eagles
2- Chiefs
3- Cowboys
4- Pats
6- Ravens
8 - Jets
11 - 49ers
Tied 14-18 Chargers, Miami, Buffalo, Pitts

Passing TDs allowed:

1- Jets
3- Cinci
5- Denver
7- 49ers
8- Ravens
9- Bills

Yards per attempt:

1- Eagles
2- Jets
4- Denver
5- Bills
7- KC
9- Pats
11- Miami

Rushing yards allowed (10 of top 12 AFC!)

1- Titans
2- 49ers
3- Ravens
4- BILLS
5- Cinci
6- Miami
7- Pats
8- KC
9- Pitts
10- Denver
11- Pats
15- Eagles
16- Jets

Rushing yards per carry (9 of top 10 AFC!)

1- 49ers
2- Titans
3- Ravens
4- Colts
5- Pats
6- Pitts
7- Jags
8- Jets
9- Cinci
10- Miami
11- Panthers
12- Denver
13- Bills

*Quick thoughts*
  • Jets have quietly become a great defense
  • KC has a ferocious front 7 attack in passing situations
  • Denver has a really good D if they can fix the Offense
  • Miami has a sneaky good D
  • All of our main playoff spot competition is good to great defensively
  • Our opponents have some really good DCs
  • Miller, Hyde, White returns to form could be major impact (huge IF)

OFFENSE RANKINGS
Total TDs

1- KC
2- Eagles
3- Lions
4- BILLS!
8- Cinci
9- Miami
11- Jags
12- Chargers

Total PASSING YARDS

1- KC
3- Chargers
4- Miami
6- Bengals
9- Bills
12- Jags
14- Jets (even with Z Wilson/M White combo!)

Total RUSHING YARDS

2- Ravens
6- Browns (under radar team to watch...)
9- Bills (THIS was a little surprise for me)
13- Titans
14- Jags
16- Steelers

*Quick thoughts*
  • Bills rank surprisingly high in rushing (JA17 - 34% of total)
  • I'm surprised at the mediocrity in rushing by most of our AFC playoff competition
  • AFC is well represented in best passing offenses

So, I only present these to gain some perspective in helping identify our area of need with regard to our closet competition and as it may relate to Draft strategy (to gain potential advantage on our opponent and our own evaluated weakness). Again, this is about our Offensive Line and it's function value towards improving the Offense as a whole. This is not about or for evaluating our own defense, which is very good, especially considering our injuries last season and Frazier's limitations as a strategist (hot topic). NOTE: there's definitely a vocal minority of skeptics for whatever our reasons, but you don't go 13-3 and rank so highly in so many statistical Categories while facing so much on and off field adversity as the Bills did in 2022 without being really friggin good. A team just can't, but looking back on how the season revealed itself on the field injuries, questionable strategy and play calling, etc, it's difficult to really point at one particular thing that keeps preventing this team from reaching the summit....13-3 and then look so awful as a team in the Cincinnati playoff game.....or if we want to make excuses for that, then how about:
  • 13 seconds (2021)
  • KC wiping the field with our asses (2020)
  • 16 point halftime lead then meltdown (2019)
  • 10-3 loss to Marrone Jags (2017)
Aside from other potential reasons for playoff failure, I believe one consistent failure is lack of investing valuable resources in Offensive Lineman, and the highest value attempt (Ford) was a total bust for us.

As Captain Obvious, I'd say our opponents in general are very good applying pressure on opponent offensive lines in passing situations. So, let's consider who they Drafted (I'll list their top 3 picks):

KC - DE, WR, OT (all other picks Defense)
Cinci - Edge, CB, S
Ravens - WR, LB(Simpson), Edge
Jax - OT (Harrison), TE, RB
Jets - Edge, C/G (Tippmann), OT
Chargers - WR, Edge, LB
Miami - CB, RB
Pitts - OT, CB, DT, TE (3rd, Washington)
Denver- WR, LB (Sanders), CB
Pats - CB, Edge, S
Browns- WR, , OT (D Jones monster OSU)
Buffalo - TE, OG, LB

So, I'm seriously bloviating on a few days old thread that likely no one is even reading, and I'm also working overtime try to connect the tea leaves for some kind of picture of what our opponents may or may not have done to move their team further ahead than us.... arguably all of main competition for playoff spots have good, or very good to great defenses.

Free Agency should not be overlooked in this discussion. It is certainly connected to every teams Draft strategy, in one way or another. So, on paper splashes in FA as this relates to our main competition:

Jets - Aaron Rodgers & wr posse (major upgrade on offense)
Miami - Jalen Ramsey trade
Pats - Riley Rieff, M Gisecki, JuJu, J Robinson (notable upgrade on offense)
Cinci - Orlando Brown
Ravens - Lamar Jax back healthy, OBJ, Roquan Smith
Pitts - Allen Robinson
Browns - nothing remarkable
Jags - nothing remarkable
KC - Jawaan Taylor
Chargers - nothing remarkable
Denver - McGlinchey, Perine

I'd say we are certainly middle of the pack or better in FA acquisition 2023, and considering our salary cap constraints, that's a win.

So what may this all mean?? AND, what does it say about whether we gained ground v opponents, are treading water, or slipping behind the ascenders and falling further back from top dogs? With the exception of Jax and Cleveland, all of our competitors for playoff spots invested heavily in Defense. Was it more than our investment in offense??


Team by team:

BILLS
Of all the AFC teams considered playoff contenders, I think the Bills have the most elusive feel. They have a very tough schedule, but so do most of the others. The 3 major rehabbing players on Defense (Miller, White, Hyde), and the loss and lack of replacement for Edmunds, and change of direction away from Frazier, the Defense is a huge question. Could be great, could be terrible, could be.....same but different? Arguably we will play more very good offenses than in 2022.

On offense, again, an elusive feeling as to whether they improved or stayed same. I don't think they're worse. Dorsey's improvement is mandatory for this squad to improve, and that includes the game synchronicity with Allen and play calling, which was very inconsistent last season. Davis will be healthy, will it make a difference? Will Kincaid be injected immediately and often in the offense AND with Knox as a dynamic 1-2 punch in 11 1/2 formation? Will Torrence be the beast some think? Will Edwards and McGovern be better than Bates/Boettger? Can Morse stay healthy. Will Kincaid and Harty fix the lack of Slot contribution and free up Diggs, Davis, Sheffield, and Shakir over the top? Can anyone or the committee relive Allen of RB1 responsibility??!!??

Keep in mind, most of these opponents improved their Defenses, on paper anyways. And we have a damn tough schedule, much tougher on paper than last season.

Conclusion: until proven otherwise, Treading Water
Projection: 6 seed, top 7, likely Wild Card. If injuries AND coaching don't undermine us, likely make it to Divisional round with playoff experience...



JETS

Conclusion: dramatically improved Offense, even tougher Defense. Forget their history....the Jets are furreals this time.
Projection: 4 seed, win AFCE, lose in wild card round

MIAMI

Conclusion: Tua, Tua, Tua, and Mike White
Projection: 7, top 7, lose in Wild card rnd

PATS

Conclusion: improvement, but not enough
Projection: 10th

KC

Conclusion: Best and remain the standard
Projection: 1 seed, Super Bowl, lose to Eagles

CINCI

Conclusion: 2nd best and got much better on D, look out KC
Projection: 2nd seed, lose again to KC in AFCCG

RAVENS

Conclusion: improved simply by Lamar being available, OBJ marginal factor, Roquan Smith big addition
Projection: top 7, lose in Divisional round

JAX

Conclusion: Anton Harrison major addition on O Line
Projection: 3 seed, win AFCS, likely Divisional round

STEELERS

Conclusion: improved significantly, need to cook another season
Projection: just miss playoffs, 8th

CHARGERS

Conclusion: on paper these guys should be better. Might be coaching, and to lesser degree Defense
Projection: 9 seed, miss playoffs

BRONCOS

Conclusion: show major improvement with revamped coaching and offense around Wilson. Not yet
Projection: 11 seed, maybe next year....

BROWNS

Conclusion: Watson starts to return to form. Offense shows signs of life, promise for 2024
Projection: 12 seed

I think all these teams have winning records. The level of competition and the difference between 3-12 and is very fine..... little room for mistakes by management, coaching, and the impact of injuries. The Bills need major good Karma this season to stay in the hunt in January or there'll be a plenty of hot seats to go around!

Just another great fan opinion shared on the pages of BuffaloRumblings.com.