Bills-Jets win probabilities: Yet another game that Buffalo let slip away

There aren’t many words for what happened on Monday Night Football between the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets. Most of the team showed up and performed at a high level to start the season on a good note — but the most important piece of the team didn’t. Quarterback Josh Allen displayed shades of his first few years in the league, where he played erratically and took too many chances on throws he shouldn’t have attempted.

It wasn’t just on Allen but a very large portion rests on his awful four-turnover performance in the season opener against a divisional opponent. Nonetheless, it’s a long season and the Bills are onto Week 2 against the Las Vegas Raiders — a game where Allen should absolutely get back on track with a dominant performance.

But first, let’s take a look at ESPN Analytics and its win probability metrics to figure out where things started to go downhill for Buffalo. In classic Bills fashion, they gave up their first lead with just under two minutes remaining in the fourth quarter.

First quarter, 3:05 remaining — BUF with a 66.1% win probability

The Bills’ first offensive drive of the season lasted just two and a half minutes and they ran just five plays for 17 yards. Following an injury to Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers, the Bills took advantage of the low morale and got their first points on the board with a field goal from Tyler Bass. Per usual, the drive was stalled by a penalty and poor pass protection.

Second quarter, 4:43 remaining — BUF with a 74.7% win probability

Allen threw his first interception of the season on their third offensive drive and the Jets were able to put points on the board as a result. In the best drive of the night where Allen looked like himself, the Bills capped off an 11-play, 75-yard drive with a touchdown pass to none other than Stefon Diggs. This featured the dominant and exciting Bills offense we all know and love.

Start of third quarter — BUF with an 83.3% win probability

Leading by 10 at halftime, the win probability metrics heavily favored the Bills here (83.3%). An interception from Jets backup quarterback Zach Wilson at the end of the second quarter allowed Buffalo to get three more points on the board before halftime. But, as the second half started, everything started going downhill for the Bills.

Fourth quarter, 4:55 remaining — BUF with a 54.8% win probability

The Jets kicked a field goal on their first drive of the second half, lessening the deficit to just seven points. Buffalo and especially Allen started to lose any form of consistency or groove and recorded one punt and two interceptions in its first three drives of the second half. Allen’s second interception really cost the Bills, though, because the Jets were able to score a touchdown and tie the game at this point. Normally when we see less than five minutes on the clock and the Bills offense coming onto the field, we feel safe because of Allen — but it was the opposite Monday night. He wasn’t trustworthy at this point in the game and he spiraled even further, fumbling on the first play of the drive following the Jets’ momentous touchdown to tie the game. What’d the Jets do, then? Yeah, they kicked a field goal to take the lead with less than two minutes to go.

Start of overtime — BUF with a 51.7% win probability

Even after the Bills’ epic collapse, the win probability metrics still favored them slightly after tying the game at 16 as the fourth quarter ended. Usually, coin tosses don’t work out in Buffalo’s favor but it did this time. Unfortunately, it didn’t matter because the Bills ran three plays for -2 yards, punted the ball away from their own 23-yard line and, well, you know what happened. Sam Martin’s punt was pretty brutal and the rest of the unit wasn’t on the same page, resulting in a walk-off punt return touchdown.

You have to love the highs and lows of being a Bills fan, am I right? As much as this loss stung and will linger in our minds for the whole season, we’re onto the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 2! Let’s just be happy Bills football is back, alright?