Well, here we are again, after another dominate performance by the Bills in week 3. Sundays game will be a big test for both teams in what should be one of the best matchups this season. It's till too early to say how the season will go for most teams (Denver and Chicago may be pretty settled) but with another week of stats in the books, the trends are starting to sort out. Again, a reminder that stats only tell part of the story, a chapter in the over all book that will be the 2023 football season.
Some of the notable things I noticed this week:
Who would have honestly thought (not hoped, cause I'm sure we all did) that James Cook would be averaging over 100 combined yards in the first three games? I'm excited to continue to watch him as the season progresses. It also says a lot about our OL coming together with the new personnel to create some nice holes for him to get into that second level.
Tua is burning up the stats chart in the AFC East (and league in general), while Cook is leading the AFCE running backs in yards and YAC, Mostert has 7 combined TDs. Hill is, literally, running away with the lead in yards for the WRs, while also leading in TDs though he also has the most drops. I'm a little disappointed in the lack of use of Kincaid through three games downfield in the passing game, though I am sure it's going to come as the season rolls along. So far it's the Pat's TEs that are leading in most categories.
On defense, the Bills DL is on fire through the first three games, 10 sacks, 14 TFL, 22 QBH, 10 QBKD, and 23 pressures and 1 pick 6. Oliver is leading the way with 4 TFLS, 6 QBHs while Floyd leads in sacks. Pats LB group is leading with Judon being a monster at 4 sacks, 5 TFL, 7 QBH, 3 QBKD, and 9 pressures. Bills LBs have the edge in Pass defense with 4 INTs (2 each). Milano and Chubb in Miami are about neck and neck in the missed tackles.
Bills DBs are allowing opposing QBs a 70.6% completion rate through 3 games and have given up 2 TDs and 2 INTs. Fins DBs are allowing opposing QBs a 69.3% completion rate with 3 TDs and 1 INT over the same period.
Bills have a 56 PT differential, while Fins have a 59 PT differential. Our (unadjusted) offensive PTs per drive is 3.0 while Miami's is 3.6. Defensive PTs per drive (unadjusted) for the Bills is 1.1 while Miami's is 2.0. Bills are blitzing at around 12% good for 28th in the league while getting a pressure rate of about 37% which is 2nd in the league. FIns are blitzing around 18% which is good for 14th in the league while getting pressure at a rate of about 26% which is 15th in the league. Both teams are right around 10% on missed tackles. Bills now have a +4 turnover differential while Fins have a +2. Miami's defense has given up over 1000 yards to their opponents, while Bills defense has allowed 759 yds to their opponents. A big difference is red zone efficiency, Bills are scoring TDs at 61.5% in the RZ while Fins are scoring TDs at 78.6% in the RZ. On the flip side, Bills defense is allowing their opponents to score TDs on only 28.6% of RZ trips, while Fins defense is letting their opponents score TDs at 63.6% in the RZ.
You can browse through the rest of the stats for more comparisons.
After 3 weeks, Bills current SOS for the year is 0.510 which ranks 15th, while the Fins SOS is 0.451, good for 24th. Go figure, that the Chiefs have a SOS of 0.392 one of the easier ones, and Giants so far have the most difficult at 0.647.
Looking forward to a great matchup against two solid very equal teams this Sunday and Go Bills!