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AFC playoff picture, Week 15: Buffalo Bills elimination scenarios

The Buffalo Bills could climb all the way to sixth in the AFC playoff bracket this weekend... or they could be eliminated from it entirely. Here's how.

Joel Auerbach/Getty Images
Matt Warren is Associate Director of NFL coverage for SB Nation and previously covered the Bills for Buffalo Rumblings for more than a decade.

Earlier this week, we told you that the Buffalo Bills can move all the way up to sixth place in the AFC with a win over the Green Bay Packers on Sunday, plus a lot of help from around the league. In the comments section, one of our readers also pointed out that the Bills could be officially eliminated this week with a loss and a lot of bad help. Here's the doomsday scenario:

Buffalo loses to Green Bay, dropping their record to 7-7, and setting up a best-case scenario of 9-7. Also necessary: three or more of the teams below winning their Week 15 matchups.

  1. San Diego Chargers (8-5) vs. Denver (10-3)
  2. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5) at Atlanta (5-8)
  3. Baltimore Ravens (8-5) vs. Jacksonville (2-11)
  4. Houston Texans (7-6) at Indianapolis (9-4)
  5. Kansas City Chiefs (7-6) vs. Oakland (2-11)
With Kansas City and San Diego squaring off in Week 17 and owning tiebreakers over Buffalo, if both of them are at 9-6 or better, it would eliminate the Bills. Similarly, Kansas City and Pittsburgh clash in Week 16, virtually guaranteeing one of them a victory while Buffalo couldn't pass a nine-win Steelers team in tiebreakers. Baltimore and Houston also meet in Week 16, giving one of them a win.

We'll keep you updated all weekend as the scene is unfolding, but we could know as early as 4:00 p.m. ET on Sunday that the Bills were knocked out of the 2014 playoff race for good.