Despite sitting at 5-4 and in sixth place in the AFC, the Buffalo Bills are not favorites to make it into the playoffs in projections from any NFL statistical site. That is less than encouraging.
The highest figured percentage for the Bills making the playoffs comes from NumberFire, who slots Buffalo in at just 46 percent. They project the Bills to finish with 8.65 wins using historical data for how the team has performed to this point, but they also them eighth overall in their power rankings, which seems odd. (The Jets and Pittsburgh are favored over Buffalo.)
At ESPN, Buffalo has a 42 percent chance, while Pittsburgh, New York, and Kansas City all have a higher probability than Buffalo. They go more into depth than the other sites to explain why:
Accounting for game site, opponent strength and other factors, the Bills are projected to play the toughest remaining schedule in the NFL, according to FPI. The Bills not only face New England in Foxborough on Monday night, but they meet Dallas in Week 16 in a game that Tony Romo will likely start (quarterback strength is factored into game predictions).
Continuing to slide down the spectrum, Sports Club Stats moved the Bills down to 41.2 percent after Pittsburgh's win on Sunday. While their playoff possibilities jumped up considerably after the Jets win, they stand to gain even more ground with a win on Monday Night Football.
Bringing up the rear are the folks at FiveThirtyEight, which puts the Bills at a 35 percent chance of making the playoffs, a lower figure than both Pittsburgh and Kansas City in the wild card race. Houston has a higher chance of making the playoffs, but with a lower expected win total than Buffalo, it's clearly a reference to them winning their division, not beating out the Bills in the wild card race.
Do you give the Bills a worse-than-50-percent chance of making the postseason like these sites?