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Last week, ESPN released an article providing NFL power rankings for the next three seasons. Although the Buffalo Bills fared well in most categories, their quarterback situation was ranked in a tie for the worst in the league with the Cleveland Browns, and this ranking plunged the Bills to No. 26 overall.
Then, earlier this week, Andy Benoit of The MMQB did his own ranking of current NFL quarterbacks, placing Matt Cassel dead last while providing a caveat that EJ Manuel and Tyrod Taylor would pull the same ranking if they start.
In light of this continued narrative, I thought it would be interesting to look at some very simple statistics comparing Cassel and Manuel (Taylor and his small sample size could not be considered) to the other nine lowest-ranked quarterbacks, according to Benoit's list (with Ryan Fitzpatrick thrown in for good measure).
The first chart ranks those 12 quarterbacks sorted by touchdown-to-turnover ratio. Each chart below looks at games played over the last two seasons (three for Sam Bradford) in which the player either started and finished the game, or started the game and was benched because of poor play. Games in which a player was injured during or entered the game as the backup were not considered.
Player | GP | Win% | YPG | TD | Run TD | INT | FL | TD:TO |
Nick Foles | 18 | 78% | 278 | 40 | 3 | 11 | 6 | 2.53 |
Sam Bradford | 23 | 45% | 234 | 35 | 1 | 17 | 6 | 1.57 |
EJ Manuel | 13 | 43% | 206 | 16 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 1.19 |
Derek Carr | 15 | 20% | 218 | 20 | 0 | 11 | 6 | 1.18 |
Ryan Fitzpatrick | 22 | 41% | 218 | 30 | 5 | 20 | 11 | 1.13 |
Josh McCown | 16 | 25% | 231 | 22 | 4 | 14 | 12 | 1.00 |
Teddy Bridgewater | 13 | 46% | 225 | 14 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 1.00 |
Brian Hoyer | 16 | 56% | 245 | 17 | 0 | 16 | 2 | 0.94 |
Matt Cassel | 9 | 56% | 228 | 13 | 1 | 13 | 3 | 0.88 |
Geno Smith | 30 | 37% | 186 | 25 | 7 | 34 | 10 | 0.73 |
Robert Griffin III | 20 | 20% | 241 | 20 | 1 | 18 | 14 | 0.66 |
Blake Bortles | 14 | 21% | 208 | 11 | 0 | 17 | 5 | 0.50 |
Averages | 17.42 | 40% | 226.43 | 21.92 | 2.17 | 16.25 | 6.83 | 1.04 |
While Cassel is near the bottom of the chart, Manuel sits near the top. Manuel has been relatively decent about not turning the ball over, even if his passing yards per game and win percentage are below average.
The next chart looks at the same players sorted by winning percentage.
Player | GP | Win% | YPG | TD | Run TD | INT | FL | TD:TO |
Nick Foles | 18 | 78% | 278 | 40 | 3 | 11 | 6 | 2.53 |
Brian Hoyer | 16 | 56% | 245 | 17 | 0 | 16 | 2 | 0.94 |
Matt Cassel | 9 | 56% | 228 | 13 | 1 | 13 | 3 | 0.88 |
Teddy Bridgewater | 13 | 46% | 225 | 14 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 1.00 |
Sam Bradford | 23 | 45% | 234 | 35 | 1 | 17 | 6 | 1.57 |
EJ Manuel | 13 | 43% | 206 | 16 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 1.19 |
Ryan Fitzpatrick | 22 | 41% | 218 | 30 | 5 | 20 | 11 | 1.13 |
Geno Smith | 30 | 37% | 186 | 25 | 7 | 34 | 10 | 0.73 |
Josh McCown | 16 | 25% | 231 | 22 | 4 | 14 | 12 | 1.00 |
Blake Bortles | 14 | 21% | 208 | 11 | 0 | 17 | 5 | 0.50 |
Derek Carr | 15 | 20% | 218 | 20 | 0 | 11 | 6 | 1.18 |
Robert Griffin III | 20 | 20% | 241 | 20 | 1 | 18 | 14 | 0.66 |
Averages | 17.42 | 40% | 226.43 | 21.92 | 2.17 | 16.25 | 6.83 | 1.04 |
Again, Foles is a cut above the rest by a considerable margin. Regarding the matter at hand: although not at the top, neither Bills quarterback finds themselves last, or even in the bottom three. In his limited recent starting experience, Cassel has led teams to more wins than losses, and while his touchdown-to-turnover ratio is below average, his passing yards per game align with the average almost exactly.
The last chart solely examines the four least-experienced quarterbacks on the list - Manuel, Bridgewater, Carr, and Bortles - and is again sorted by winning percentage.
Player | GP | Win% | YPG | TD | Run TD | INT | FL | TD:TO |
Teddy Bridgewater | 13 | 46% | 225 | 14 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 1.00 |
EJ Manuel | 13 | 43% | 206 | 16 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 1.19 |
Blake Bortles | 14 | 21% | 208 | 11 | 0 | 17 | 5 | 0.50 |
Derek Carr | 15 | 20% | 218 | 20 | 0 | 11 | 6 | 1.18 |
Averages | 13.75 | 32% | 214.12 | 15.25 | 1.00 | 13.00 | 4.50 | 0.93 |
While Manuel had an extra season to reach his 13 starts, and his yards passing per game are the lowest of the group, he does not seem to stack up poorly enough against three generally well-regarded young quarterbacks to necessarily earn the disrespect he receives. I understand that neither Manuel nor Cassel are average quarterbacks, but as the stats show, the level of quarterback play at the bottom of the NFL is very poor.
While no one will mistake the Bills' quarterback room for that of Joe Montana and Steve Young or Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers, it does seem as though the narrative that the Bills have the worst quarterback situation in the league may be somewhat overstated.