The 2016 NFL Draft is almost here, and before we know it, the Buffalo Bills will be turning in their card with their first first-round pick in two years.
Historically, the Bills have drafted a player who visited them pre-draft with their first-round pick. Leading up to the draft, we'll be looking at key visitors for Buffalo, to see who makes sense for them at No. 19 overall.
Next, we're examining Oklahoma State defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah.
Personal
Ogbah was born in Lagos, Nigeria, and moved to the United States at the age of nine. He lived in Houston, Texas, and started playing football in seventh grade. A three-star recruit out of college, Ogbah chose Oklahoma State as his commitment in part because of fellow Nigerian Russell Okung's advice. The 22-year-old leaves Oklahoma State as a redshirt junior, having played in three seasons (starting for two) after sitting out his freshman year. In the last two seasons, he had 24 sacks and 34.5 tackles for loss, along with four forced fumbles and nine pass breakups.
Ogbah has often been described as someone who changes from a mild-mannered Clark Kent to a Superman when he steps onto the football field. He's never missed a class, never been late to a meeting, and never skipped a workout. He's quiet and humble off the field, but his teammates call him a driven leader.
One of Ogbah's role models is former Giants defensive end Osi Umenyiora. He watches highlight videos of the pass rusher as part of his pregame ritual.
Raw talent
Ogbah is one of the most physically impressive edge rushers in this class, standing 6'4" and weighing in at 273 pounds with 35.5-inch arms. At the Combine, he had an excellent 4.62-second 40-yard dash time that also featured a lightning-quick 1.58-second 10-yard split. His 10'1" broad jump and 35.5-inch vertical were both great, although his 7.26-second three-cone drill was below average. The four players most physically similar to Ogbah, according to MockDraftable.com: Aldon Smith, Jadeveon Clowney, Ezekiel Ansah, and Robert Quinn. That's a nice group to be a part of.
Run defense and edge setting
Ogbah has good play strength, and is athletic enough to set the edge against the run. His gap discipline wasn't always present, as he sometimes attacked the wrong shoulder of an offensive lineman and allowed a runner to go by. He also has occasional problems with pad level, which allows his opponents to push him out of the way.
When he's been asked to directly disrupt the running game, Ogbah has been excellent. His long arms and core power really suit him for that task, as noted by his high tackle for loss counts in college.
Pass rush talent and refinement
This is what's so frustrating about Ogbah: he's gifted, capable of completely dominating pretty good players, but he's so inconsistent with his success rate. He sometimes plays with too high of a pad level, failing to generate any real push. Other times he'll bull rush forward, move the tackle three steps, and then stall out.
At his best, Ogbah has an excellent first step and an awesome dip and rip for his size around the edge. He can use his arm to hold a lineman back while he closes for the sack. That said, he really needs a "Plan B" move that he can use to his advantage - a spin or an inside counter that would enhance his arsenal, and give him a technique to use if he's stonewalled with the first attempt on a play.
I watched a good portion of Ogbah's tape feeling underwhelmed by his pass-rushing potential, but I eventually saw that the ability is there, like in the Kansas State game from this year. He just has to control his athleticism better.
Fluidity in space
Ogbah is built like a defensive end, so don't go expecting him to drop 20 pounds and play outside linebacker. He moves well within the space of the tackle box, and can chase players to the sidelines. He'd probably be fine dropping into a short zone on occasion.
Final word
Ogbah is one of several boom-or-bust pass rushers in this draft class. His athletic ability, mental makeup, stats, and flashes on tape suggest that he's a burgeoning star, but the inconsistency in his play makes you wonder what you'll see from him on a play-by-play basis. For Buffalo, Ogbah profiles as a potential Mario Williams replacement - a down lineman who brings a pass rush from the left side. He'd probably be a bit of a reach with their No. 19 overall pick, but if they were to trade down from their original pick, it would help mitigate some of the risk.